Princeton-Yale Title: West Virginia
Def. Clemson 70-33 | Next game: v. Marshall, 9/1 TBD
2006 Boise State Title: Alabama
Next game: v. Michigan in Arlington, 9/1 TBD		 2009 Boise State Title: USC/Oregon
USC next game: v. Hawaii, 9/1 TBD
Oregon next game: v. Arkansas State, 9/1 TBD		 2010 TCU Title: Baylor
Next game: v. SMU, 9/1 TBD

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 12

November 25, 2011 – 12:45 am

After a weekend of upsets, it’s official: we’re going to have a one-loss team in the national championship game, and after a few years of relative lack of controversy the BCS mess is back with a vengeance. An LSU-Alabama rematch may be the least bad option at this point; no one, not even the people who put them there, thinks Arkansas is really the third-best team in the country (though they might prove it with an upset win over LSU), and Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Stanford are a rather uninspiring crop of one-loss teams. (By the way, who says the Golden Boot is a fake, manufactured rivalry?) If the two best teams happen to come from the same division of the same conference, is that really all that bad? (Okay, so their first meeting was unwatchable, but still!)

A note on the lineal titles: I’ve split the ’09 Boise State title, giving Oregon a continuing claim to the title because of the sanctions against USC.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC #1 ’06 Boise St.
11-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .834 B Rating: 53.397 C Rating: 46.352 AP: 1 BCS: 1
LSU avoided the epidemic of upsets against Ole Miss, but will their luck run out against Arkansas?
2 Alabama SEC #2 BCS Title
10-1 LW: #4 A Rat: .775 B Rating: 49.410 C Rating: 42.817 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Bama might as well have taken a week off against I-AA Georgia Southern, but now they’re in the catbird seat. But Auburn wants to recover something of their season.
3 Oklahoma State B12 #1 BCS Title
10-1 LW: #1 A Rat: .643 B Rating: 45.045 C Rating: 37.747 AP: 5 BCS: 4
The Cowboys will have a week to stew over the Iowa State loss – but Baylor loss aside, Oklahoma will be a far tougher test.
4 Boise State MWC #1 MWC Title
9-1 LW: #6 A Rat: .675 B Rating: 39.471 C Rating: 33.203 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Boise is looking like they picked a good time to lose, even if they need help from UNLV in two weeks to parlay it into a possible BCS bowl with a loss.
5 Oklahoma B12 #2 Big 12 Title
8-2 LW: #2 A Rat: .580 B Rating: 39.619 C Rating: 33.143 AP: 12 BCS: 9
Disappointing loss, and before facing Oklahoma State they have to take on the team that beat the Cowboys.
6 Oregon P12 #1 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #5 A Rat: .590 B Rating: 30.983 C Rating: 25.742 AP: 9 BCS: 10
In one fell swoop, Oregon went from a potential national title contender to being a long shot for any BCS bowl. Nothing left to do but take care of their rivals.
7 Houston USA #1 BCS Bowl
11-0 LW: #9 A Rat: .781 B Rating: 33.570 C Rating: 24.027/strong> AP: 8 BCS: 8
Houston is looking like a mortal lock to become the 5th non-BCS team to play in a BCS game – but if they lose to Tulsa they won’t even be playing in the conference title game.
8 Wisconsin B10 #1 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: #7 A Rat: .647 B Rating: 30.112 C Rating: 22.994 AP: 15 BCS: 16
A rather pedestrian win over Illinois leaves the Badgers open to a slip. Now they play Penn State with the winner headed to Indianapolis.
9 Michigan B10 #2 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #10 A Rat: .589 B Rating: 23.256 C Rating: 19.192 AP: 17 BCS: 15
The Wolverines just embarassed Nebraska, and while they’re officially not going to the conference title game, they care a whole lot more about the golden opportunity to turn the tables on the Buckeyes.
10 Stanford P12 #2 BCS Title
10-1 LW: #8 A Rat: .681 B Rating: 22.342 C Rating: 16.184 AP: 4 BCS: 6
While no one seriously thinks the Cardinal are worse than V-Tech, you gotta do better than a field-goal victory over a team that struggled to get bowl-eligible, even if they are your rival. No matter, though: the title game awaits.
11 Arkansas SEC #3 SEC Title
9-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .631 B Rating: 17.674 C Rating: 12.505 AP: 3 BCS: 3
While #3 is ridiculous, the Razorbacks are at least trying to live up to it with blowout wins over the likes of Mississippi State. If they can beat LSU, they’d be pretty close to deserving a national title trip.
12 TCU MWC #2 MWC Title
9-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .579 B Rating: 14.502 C Rating: 9.335 AP: 19 BCS: 20
How incredible is it that people have started to whisper about TCU going to a BCS bowl, as a non-BCS conference team, with not one, but two losses?
13 Virginia Tech ACC #1 Prncton/Yale
10-1 LW: #13 A Rat: .604 B Rating: 11.887 C Rating: 8.469 AP: 6 BCS: 5
National title contenders don’t beat 6-5 North Carolina by three points at home, but the ACC has provided enough lack of parity that people are noticing V-Tech’s strong season – and this weekend’s big Commonwealth Cup.
14 Notre Dame   Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 11.082 C Rating: 7.845 AP: 22 BCS: 22
Pedestrian win over a pedestrian Boston College team, and now Stanford will represent the ultimate challenge for the Golden Domers.
15 Georgia SEC #4 SEC Title
9-2 LW: #14 A Rat: .573 B Rating: 11.539 C Rating: 7.785 AP: 13 BCS: 13
Georgia fans want you to be asking: What if we pulled the upset in the SEC title game? It’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
16 Southern Miss USA #2 C-USA Title
9-2 LW: #11 A Rat: .548 B Rating: 11.509 C Rating: 6.287 – –
The Eagles will still make the conference title game with a win over Memphis or a Marshall loss, but can you imagine how huge it would’ve been if it was a ranked unbeaten against a ranked one-loss team?
17 USC P12 #3 ’09 Boise St.
9-2 LW: #20 A Rat: .525 B Rating: 8.106 C Rating: 4.680 AP: 10 SBNBlog: 13
Not only USC, but the Pac-12 is cursing themselves for the Trojans being bowl-ineligible. If USC beats UCLA and Utah and Arizona State lose as well, UCLA will go to the conference title game despite probably not bowling if they lose.
18 South Carolina SEC #5 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .540 B Rating: 7.159 C Rating: 4.548 AP: 14 BCS: 12
When’s the last time the Palmetto State rivalry was this important? It would’ve been even more important had Clemson not just lost.
19 Penn State B10 #3 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: #23 A Rat: .536 B Rating: 6.736 C Rating: 4.473 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Penn State bounces back and gets their first win without Joe Paterno. But the clash with Wisconsin is humongous.
20 Texas A&M B12 #3 Bowl Position
6-5 LW: #21 A Rat: .346 B Rating: 6.506 C Rating: 3.470 – –
A&M just took another heartbreaking loss to a good team to close out their run in the Big 12 – and possibly, the Lone Star Showdown for good.
21 Toledo MAC #1 MAC Title
7-4 LW: #24 A Rat: .389 B Rating: 5.883 C Rating: 3.027 – –
The Rockets just became the biggest Eastern Michigan fans in the country.
22 Rutgers BST #1 Big East Title
8-3 LW: #26 A Rat: .464 B Rating: 4.482 C Rating: 2.443 – –
Hey, the alleged BCS conference Big East actually mustered a Top 25 team again! Now if South Florida can beat Louisville, we’ll get a Big East BCS representative that isn’t barely bowl-eligible and is actually pretty good!
23 Florida State ACC #2 Bowl Position
7-4 LW: #22 A Rat: .441 B Rating: 4.723 C Rating: 1.716 – –
One-point loss against a team that could make the conference title game means only a one-spot drop. Now without Meyer or Tebow, the Seminoles have a chance to best rival Florida for once.
24 Nebraska B10 #4 Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .448 B Rating: 3.091 C Rating: 1.261 AP: 22 BCS: 21
Tim-ber! Catastrophic loss to Michigan sends the Huskers tumbling. Only bowl position matters now, and a potential new rivalry with Iowa could be pivotal in determining that.
25 Clemson ACC #2 ACC Title
9-2 LW: #15 A Rat: .496 B Rating: 2.525 C Rating: -.311 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Of course, Nebraska’s loss is nothing compared to Clemson getting blown out by an NC State team needing the win to become bowl-eligible. Might the Cocks see blood in the water?


2010 TCU Title: #46 Baylor (7-3), .387, -9.526, -10.106

Off Top 25: #27 Missouri (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL)

Other Positive B Ratings: #28 Arizona State, #29 Utah State*, #30 Tulsa, #32 Iowa*, #33 Michigan State, #35 Ohio, #36 Georgia Tech*, #38 Northern Illinois, #39 Arkansas State* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #27 Missouri

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 UAB, #114 Colorado, #115 Kansas, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Memphis, #118 Tulane, #119 Akron, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Arkansas @ LSU, 11:30am PT, CBS

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Rankings | Comments (0)

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 9

November 4, 2011 – 10:22 pm
Median Expected Score
LSU 18½
Alabama 23

LSU v. Alabama. No. 1 v. No. 2. Two of the best three defenses in the country. A showdown to determine one of the participants in this year’s BCS Title Game.

Oklahoma will have something to say about the eventual outcome.

The Sooners may appear to be a long shot to make it that far; they’ll need a lot of upsets of teams currently undefeated. They can take out Oklahoma State themselves, but they’ll need someone else to take out Stanford, and maybe Boise State and the LSU-Bama loser too. Someone needs to explain to me how the Sooners could be favored on the road against a higher-ranked team (that’s all you need to know about how big a joke the polls are), but while Kansas State was wildly overrated, they were still undefeated, and the way the Sooners crushed them sends them shooting ahead of even LSU in the C Ratings.

Also, bad news for Big East fans: Rutgers has fallen off the Top 25, so your alleged BCS conference now has zero representatives. Better hope those invites work out…

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC #1 BCS Title
8-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .907 B Rating: 49.180 C Rating: 42.477 AP: 2 BCS: 2
The Tide and their top-ranked defense is rested and ready for the big showdown in Tuscaloosa.
2 Oklahoma B12 #1 2010 TCU
7-1 LW: #5 A Rat: .671 B Rating: 47.537 C Rating: 40.844 AP: 7 BCS: 6
A tight loss to Texas Tech doesn’t outweigh three wins over Top 25 teams in the C Ratings.
3 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .852 B Rating: 45.883 C Rating: 40.437 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Not as many wins over good teams hurt the Tigers’ resume, but don’t be too alarmed. Unless Oklahoma blows A&M out of the water, a win over Bama should put you back in the top two.
4 Boise State MWC #1 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #4 A Rat: .796 B Rating: 39.822 C Rating: 34.522 AP: 5 BCS: 5
Boise comes back from the bye for a tune-up against UNLV ahead of a showdown with TCU.
5 Stanford P12 #1 BCS Title
8-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .822 B Rating: 38.563 C Rating: 32.039 AP: 4 BCS: 4
Despite beating USC, Stanford slips even behind idle Boise. Gotta be concerned by a win by only eight, and losses by teams they’ve played. The Oregon schools come to town next.
6 Oklahoma State B12 #2 BCS Title
8-0 LW: #6 A Rat: .720 B Rating: 36.770 C Rating: 31.516 AP: 3 BCS: 3
Oklahoma State is now part of a group of teams well ahead of the pack. But freshly-lost Kansas State will not be easy to put away.
7 Oregon P12 #2 ’09 Boise St.
7-1 LW: #8 A Rat: .656 B Rating: 22.251 C Rating: 18.384 AP: 6 BCS: 8
Another win, another step up. But Washington isn’t Washington State, and Stanford will be far better than even that.
8 Wisconsin B10 #1 Big 10 Title
6-2 LW: #7 A Rat: .591 B Rating: 20.122 C Rating: 15.298 AP: 19 BCS: 20
Uh-oh, could Wisconsin’s season be starting to fall apart? But Ohio State has sneakily recovered from their slow start, and it’s another close loss. Hopefully Purdue will be just what the doctor ordered.
9 Houston USA #1 BCS Bowl
8-0 LW: #10 A Rat: .740 B Rating: 19.688 C Rating: 14.392 AP: 14 BCS: 13
The show Case Keenum put on against Rice caused the whole country to take notice. Could another one be coming against lowly UAB?
10 Michigan B10 #2 BCS Title
7-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .657 B Rating: 16.883 C Rating: 13.621 AP: 13 BCS: 15
Big blowout over the Boilermakers. Now come two three-loss teams before a must-win against Nebraska.
11 Clemson ACC #1 ACC Title
8-1 LW: #9 A Rat: .587 B Rating: 14.170 C Rating: 11.269 AP: 11 BCS: 11
The Tigers got a rude awakening against G-Tech, and now they suddenly face a must-win against Wake Forest if they want to win the Atlantic.
12 Nebraska B10 #3 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .608 B Rating: 10.690 C Rating: 8.213 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Did you know Nebraska stomped a pretty decent Michigan State team this weekend? The polls did, and so did the C Ratings.
13 South Carolina SEC #3 SEC Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .606 B Rating: 10.847 C Rating: 8.805 AP: 10 BCS: 9
The SEC undercard bout isn’t – neither team is Top 10 material, especially Arkansas – but it is a tough challenge for the Gamecocks to keep pace with Georgia in the East.
14 Penn State B10 #4 Big 10 Title
8-1 LW: #13 A Rat: .607 B Rating: 8.990 C Rating: 6.976 AP: 16 BCS: 16
It wasn’t pretty, but the Lions got it done for JoePa, and they’re now clear by two in the Woody Hayes division. But their last three opponents won’t be easy, starting with Nebraska after the bye.
15 Virginia Tech ACC #2 ACC Title
8-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.395 C Rating: 6.940 AP: 12 BCS: 12
The Hokies shouldn’t celebrate Clemson’s misfortune too long. The team that beat them is next, and they want a trip to the conference title game.
16 Southern Miss USA #2 C-USA Title
7-1 LW: #16 A Rat: .622 B Rating: 10.288 C Rating: 6.621 Coaches: 24 BCS: 25
Now the BCS is taking note of the Golden Eagles. But unless they beat East Carolina, they may not even be going to the conference title game.
17 Texas A&M B12 #3 Big 12 Title
5-3 LW: #11 A Rat: .409 B Rating: 8.430 C Rating: 6.120 – –
Heartbreaking loss to Missouri. What’s worse? Now comes a visit to Norman.
18 Toledo MAC #1 MAC Title
5-3 LW: #17 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 7.354 C Rating: 5.506 – –
I wouldn’t guaranteee that the Rockets fall off the rankings next week after a three-point loss to the perennial “Other Positive B Points” team, especially the way everyone took notice of the MAC afterwards.
19 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
5-3 LW: #20 A Rat: .391 B Rating: 6.193 C Rating: 4.668 – –
Blowout win over Navy reminds us all why the Domers are on the Top 25, and now they’re a win against a tough Wake Forest team away from becoming bowl-eligible.
20 Arizona State P12 #3 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .488 B Rating: 4.907 C Rating: 2.880 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Okay, so Colorado is so godawful the Sun Devils actually slip after beating them. But a win over UCLA will all but lock up a trip to the inaugural conference title game.
21 Arkansas SEC #4 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .571 B Rating: 5.663 C Rating: 2.314 AP: 8 BCS: 7
Other teams’ misfortune causes the Razorbacks to move up despite a tight win over a team struggling to become bowl eligible. Will Steve Spurrier’s team expose them, or will they prove the polls right?
22 Florida State ACC #3 ACC Title
5-3 LW: #28 A Rat: .443 B Rating: 3.958 C Rating: 2.274 – –
You probably forgot about the Seminoles after they followed a loss to mighty Oklahoma with consecutive 35-30 losses to their rivals for the division crown, but they’ve bounced back and a 34-0 drubbing of NC State puts them back on the Top 25.
23 Georgia SEC #5 SEC Title
6-2 LW: #24 A Rat: .485 B Rating: 2.695 C Rating: 2.203 AP: 18 BCS: 18
It wasn’t pretty, but it was a win against their rivals. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with New Mexico State, which is good because they have two very good teams still to come.
24 USC P12 #4 Probation
6-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 3.458 C Rating: 2.170 AP: 21 SBNBlog: 22
USC fought valiantly against mighty Stanford and showed why they deserved all the love they got after the Notre Dame win. After crushing Colorado, they’ll get a challenge when Washington comes to the Coliseum.
25 TCU MWC #2 MWC Title
6-2 LW: #27 A Rat: .538 B Rating: 6.781 C Rating: 1.906 – –
An important win over BYU gives the Horned Frogs just enough to move back into the Top 25, with just a trip to Wyoming ahead of the big showdown with Boise State.


26 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Princeton-Yale Title: #26 Georgia Tech (7-2), .482, 3.346, .752

Off Top 25: #27 Rutgers (was #23), #35 Kansas State (was #18)

Watch List: #26 Georgia Tech, #27 Rutgers, #28 Miami (FL)

#27 TCU, #28 Florida State, #29 Michigan State, #31 Syracuse*, Temple, Iowa, Kansas State, Ohio

Other Positive B Ratings: #31 West Virginia*, #37 Iowa, #40 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #32 Michigan State, #35 Kansas State, #41 Temple, #56 Syracuse

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 Kansas, #114 Akron, #115 Buffalo, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Tulane, #118 UAB, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: LSU @ Alabama, 5pm PT, CBS

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Rankings | Comments (0)

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 8

October 29, 2011 – 5:57 am

I take back what I said about all full rankings coming in PDF form from now on. My laptop is incredibly slow at calculating the rankings. Even the super-slow school computers are faster. If I have to calculate the rankings at home, I’ll use the computer I’ve used from the start that only creates RTFs (unless I can get a bunch of programs closed, but I’m skeptical that’ll help).

After last weekend’s upsets, the national championship picture is starting to clear up. Barring upsets, there will be a national semifinal next week in primetime. Their opponent? Stanford, then either Boise State or a one-loss team. Oklahoma State and our other lineal title holders may have something to say about that, but most people expect the Big 12 teams and Oregon to lose (Kansas State potentially this weekend) and the ACC and Big East to be disrespected.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC #1 BCS Title
8-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .907 B Rating: 52.786 C Rating: 46.078 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama showed the teams below them who’s boss with a huge blowout of Tennessee. Now they get a week to prepare for the showdown with LSU.
2 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .852 B Rating: 46.800 C Rating: 41.451 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Huge win over an overrated Auburn team, but they will need the week off before the trip to Tuscaloosa.
3 Stanford P12 #1 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #5 A Rat: .868 B Rating: 40.987 C Rating: 34.271 AP: 4 BCS: 6
“Won’t go away easily” my ass! Blowout over the Huskies plus big upsets means the Cardinal are now in national championship position.
4 Boise State MWC #1 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .796 B Rating: 38.385 C Rating: 33.063 AP: 5 BCS: 4
Not the most impressive performance against Air Force. They’ll want to get their practice licks in against UNLV, because the TCU game is huge.
5 Oklahoma B12 #1 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #4 A Rat: .646 B Rating: 28.949 C Rating: 24.346 AP: 11 BCS: 9
Losing to mediocre Texas Tech at home certainly looks bad, but I always say never to overreact to a single loss, especially by a field goal. You thought they were that good, they can’t be that bad now.
6 Oklahoma State B12 #2 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .709 B Rating: 27.169 C Rating: 23.106 AP: 3 BCS: 3
I don’t think anyone really thinks Oklahoma State is really this good. But they do keep impressing with a huge win over a decent Missouri team.
7 Wisconsin B10 #1 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #6 A Rat: .718 B Rating: 25.048 C Rating: 20.074 AP: 12 BCS: 15
See what I said about Oklahoma, with the added element that Michigan State is substantially better than Texas Tech. Now comes a not-as-big-as-it-could-be clash with Ohio State.
8 Oregon P12 #2 ’09 Boise St.
6-1 LW: #9 A Rat: .652 B Rating: 20.947 C Rating: 17.981 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Impressive blowout over Colorado. But now they get progressively better opponents in the Washington schools.
9 Clemson ACC #1 Prncton/Yale
8-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .708 B Rating: 19.883 C Rating: 16.197 AP: 6 BCS: 5
Fairly tight game against an only-decent North Carolina team. But G-Tech is the best opponent they’ve faced so far.
10 Houston USA #1 BCS Bowl
7-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .736 B Rating: 14.737 C Rating: 10.372 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Marshall is pretty bad, but Houston put on a show, and combine that with losses by other teams and it’s another five-spot jump for the Cougars.
11 Texas A&M B12 #3 Big 12 Title
5-2 LW: #11 A Rat: .483 B Rating: 12.896 C Rating: 10.275 AP: 16 BCS: 16
Big win over Iowa State, but Missouri will be substantially tougher.
12 Michigan B10 #2 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #10 A Rat: .637 B Rating: 12.586 C Rating: 9.728 AP: 17 BCS: 18
Drop for idle hands made worse by opponents not doing their best. Now Purdue serves as a warm-up for Iowa.
13 Penn State B10 #3 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.118 C Rating: 7.420 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Not sure why a modest ten-point win over mediocre Northwestern results in such a big jump in the C Ratings and AP Poll – other teams losing don’t explain it all. But now to justify it against Illinois.
14 South Carolina SEC #3 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 9.241 C Rating: 6.870 AP: 14 BCS: 13
Despite idle hands, big wins by their opponents (Vandy over Army, Kentucky over a I-AA team that doesn’t matter for A Rating purposes) send them rocketing up the ratings. Now to justify it against Tennessee.
15 Virginia Tech ACC #2 Big 12 Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .597 B Rating: 9.078 C Rating: 6.785 AP: 15 BCS: 12
Followed the big win over Wake Forest with a blowout over BC. Now a trip to Duke ahead of an important showdown with Georgia Tech.
16 Southern Miss USA #2 C-USA Title
6-1 LW: #27 A Rat: .600 B Rating: 8.372 C Rating: 5.403 Coaches: 25 –
Is C-USA better than you think? A blowout win over SMU have people noticing the Golden Eagles have only a single tight loss with some pretty big wins. How big could the title game be?
17 Toledo MAC #1 MAC Title
5-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 6.961 C Rating: 5.318 – –
Big win over Miami (OH). Will a Tuesday night nationally televised win over Northern Illinois cause the pollsters to take notice?
18 Kansas State B12 #4 2010 TCU
7-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .684 B Rating: 7.929 C Rating: 5.286 AP: 10 BCS: 8
Huge win over their rivals in their first game in the Top 25. But who wants to bet the Sooners will own them?
19 Arizona State P12 #3 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #21 A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.848 C Rating: 4.081 AP: 23 BCS: 21
Teams losing (and opponents winning) mean the Sun Devils move up despite idle hands, and with woeful Colorado coming to the desert, they could move up substantially.
20 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
4-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .337 B Rating: 5.120 C Rating: 4.003 – –
We were already rating the Golden Domers far higher than most people, and after being blown out by USC this looks all the more dubious. But when they look good they look very good, and they’ll have a chance to look good against Navy.
21 Nebraska B10 #4 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: #13 A Rat: .566 B Rating: 5.801 C Rating: 3.590 AP: 13 BCS: 14
Nebraska slips substantially despite winning! But a blowout of a godawful Minnesota team doesn’t outweigh the first-loss effect on Wisconsin.
22 USC P12 #4 Probation
6-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .542 B Rating: 4.918 C Rating: 3.099 AP: 20 SBNBlog: 21
If the Trojans are this good with nothing to play for and most of the upperclassmen having departed when the sanctions came down, imagine how good they’ll be next year! BCS or bust for the Trojans next year! Could they upset Stanford?
23 Rutgers BST #1 Big East Title
5-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .452 B Rating: 3.290 C Rating: 2.325 – –
The Knights can’t slip too much losing by only two. If they beat a West Virginia team still ranked in the polls, it’ll more than make up for it.
24 Georgia SEC #4 SEC Title
5-2 LW: #26 A Rat: .469 B Rating: 2.074 C Rating: 1.907 AP: 22 BCS: 22
The Bulldogs didn’t play last week, but other teams losing put them in the top 25, just in time for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party – which they have the edge in for once.
25 Arkansas SEC #5 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .572 B Rating: 4.434 C Rating: 1.794 AP: 8 BCS: 10
Nice modest win over Ole Miss, better than some other teams did. Beat Vanderbilt to keep pace in the West.


29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 TCU (was #24), #30 Georgia Tech (was #19), #32 West Virginia (was #16)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL), #27 TCU, #28 Florida State, #29 Michigan State, #30 Georgia Tech, #31 Syracuse*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 Temple, #37 Iowa, #42 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #32 West Virginia, #33 Washington, #41 Missouri, #44 Utah State, #45 Texas, #57 Northern Illinois

Bottom 10: #111 Colorado, #112 Idaho, #113 Buffalo, #114 UNLV, #115 Akron, #116 UAB, #117 Florida Atlantic, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 12:30pm PT, ESPN

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Rankings | Comments (0)

Some housekeeping notes, and a Week 17 playoff watch

December 30, 2010 – 1:13 am

The lineal titles are, belatedly, updated, and I think I’m somewhat lucky that none of the college titles are being defended until after the new year.

The Golden Bowl tournament, however, is probably not going to happen this year, and maybe ever. Somehow it has always managed to monopolize a lot of my time during every winter break, and the process of selection chews up a lot of time and brainpower just as the fall quarter at school starts ramping up towards finals. Perhaps once I’m finally out of school I’ll start it up again – heaven knows we’ll probably be no closer to a playoff then. I do want to say a few things about how the bracket would have shaken out:

The top six teams in the RPI are all from the SEC or Big 12, with attendant effects on selection, including Oklahoma probably getting a top-three seed, a possible third SEC at-large in Alabama, and all other conferences getting squeezed out of at-larges, including Stanford and Ohio State. Had I decided to cap at-larges at 2 per conference, they and Michigan State would have been key contenders.

Thanks in part to my Rose Bowl Semifinal rule, Oregon is hard-pressed to even get a first-round home game; the Pac-10 was weak this year. Wisconsin barely stood out among a field of Oregon, TCU, Boise, and V-Tech.

Finally, Connecticut actually barely got edged by UCF for the 13 seed, so the 3 would be a lot less valuable than the 2 this year, and the 4 substantially more valuable than the 5.

For the Playoff Pictures, anything that’s not self-explanatory is in the notes. Thick borders cannot be crossed, and I didn’t bother to research common-games tiebreakers for playoff positioning.

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
SOUTH
49-6		 511-4 ONLY AFC SOUTH
CONTENDERS
HAVE NOT CLINCHED
PLAYOFF SPOT
8-7
WEST
310-5		 610-5
CLINCHED
NORTH
211-4		 STILL POSSIBLE:
11-4 511-5
EAST
113-2		 611-5
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
WEST
47-8		 511-4 PACKERS BEAT
GIANTS AND WIN
COMMON GAMES
OVER BUCS
6-9
EAST
310-5		 69-6
9-6
NORTH
211-4		 9-6
CLINCHED 9-6
SOUTH
112-3
11-4
OUT ON TIEBREAKERS CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Blog News, Golden Bowl Simulated CFB Playoff, NFL Lineal Title, SNF Flex Scheduling Watch | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 10

November 9, 2010 – 5:50 pm

A #1 TCU-#2 Boise State national championship game?

That’s what the C Ratings seem to be suggesting. TCU was already #1; beating up on #13 Utah just means they’re building an insurmountable lead. But Boise State beat up on a good Hawaii team, while #3 Oregon beat up on a Washington team that will probably not deliver Jake Locker to a bowl.

The difference in strength of schedule means the C Ratings are vouching for the battle of non-BCS teams. We’ll probably get #5 Auburn-Oregon instead, of course, but TCU and Boise have proven their bona fides over the course of the season. Boise is still haunted by V-Tech’s loss to James Madison, but the loss coming to a I-AA school isn’t really affected in V-Tech’s ratings, let alone Boise’s, but that is a very tough nut to crack while continuing to use Access to calculate the ratings. Both TCU and Boise have beaten enough good teams to show they deserve a shot – and TCU, at least, looks likely to get one if one of the BCS unbeatens loses.

Does it help TCU’s case to see the most likely 1-loss team in the way, #10 Alabama, go down to #15 LSU? Not necessarily: now people are suggesting Auburn itself could go to the BCS Title Game with one loss. But if that happens, the wailing and gnashing of teeth could reach a whole new level. (And meanwhile, #4 Ohio State continues plugging along, hoping for a #17 Wisconsin loss…)

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • #6 Oklahoma State catapults up the ratings, benefitting from #9 Oklahoma’s loss and #8 Nebraska’s OT win to become the Big 12 leader, and likely South representative in the title game. A national championship trip seems a long shot, but like Ohio State, they are top ten in the BCS.
  • From what I understand, if Oregon plays in the BCS Title Game the Rose Bowl HAS to select TCU or Boise, not #7 Stanford. Someone else getting screwed by the BCS rules! The one year it’s not an Illinois… On the other hand, Stanford has a pretty good shot of going to my simulated Golden Bowl Playoffs as an at-large.
  • #11 Nevada is knocking on the door of the top 10. The six-point loss to Hawaii will keep them out of BCS bowl contention; take that away, and I would be arguing that if they beat Boise State, they should be considered at least as much in the national championship consideration as Boise was.
  • How the mighty have fallen! Losing to Nebraska was one thing, but losing to lowly Texas Tech? It wasn’t too long ago that #14 Missouri was in the thick of the national championship consideration, but now they’d need Nebraska to really collapse to get more than a trip to a mid-pack bowl. And if they want to get their season back on track, they need to do it against a K-State team ranked in the BCS (but not in positive B Points). Fortunately, they’re still unbeaten at home.
  • As I mentioned last week, all that matters to #25 South Carolina in terms of clinching the division is winning the Spurrier Bowl this week. #16 Arkansas, on the other hand, is mired in the SEC West where Auburn, Alabama, and LSU reign – but the loss to Alabama was very tight. With LSU at home still to come in the schedule, an LSU team that’s the top one-loss team in the BCS but only one spot ahead of the Hogs in the C Ratings because of the BCS’ no-MoV rule, look for Arkansas to potentially pull the upset there, establishing themselves as the third-best team in the West. Meanwhile, #22 Florida returns to the BCS and now outrates South Carolina in the C Ratings…
  • When it looks at the C Ratings, must #18 Iowa be cursing itself for its one-point loss to Wisconsin? You know Ohio State must be cursing it, because that was the best chance for a Wisconsin loss all year, aside from the actual loss to #20 Michigan State.
  • #19 Arizona takes a tumble after the Stanford loss, and #23 USC falls out of the top 20 for the first time all year.
  • #21 Navy is at one of the highest positions in the C Ratings I’ve ever seen from them. Give the credit to demolishing an East Carolina team that knows how to work the score ratio. Also note that two of their losses are to good teams and they beat Notre Dame pretty handily as well.
  • Other than #12 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State is the only other ACC team in the Top 25 – and NC State just lost to Clemson! Nonetheless, both teams control their own destiny to the ACC Title Game, since NC State beat Florida State and still has Maryland on the schedule. V-Tech cleared the first hurdle and now just needs to win two of the remaining three.
  • Once again, the Top 25 is deserted of Big East teams, though both Pitt and West Virginia are just barely on the outside looking in. Right behind them is Oregon State – what would it say about TCU and Boise if they were to enter the Top 25? Texas A&M’s upset of Oklahoma has them ranked in the BCS, but it’s not quite enough to crack the top 25 of the C Ratings.

Best game of week: San Diego State @ #1 TCU, 4pm ET, VS.
Complete C Ratings

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Rankings | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 9

November 3, 2010 – 8:57 pm

Both lineal titles are updated… and with the fall of #18 Michigan State and #9 Missouri, the BCS Title picture has dramatically clarified.

There are exactly two BCS conference unbeaten teams, and much as #3 Boise State and #1 TCU, which expected to benefit from Alabama and Ohio State losses, don’t like it, if they win out they can punch their ticket to the national title game. Neither has a lineal title at the moment, though there is a very good chance Florida’s Princeton-Yale Title could find itself at stake in the SEC title game. (Florida is just barely outside the Top 25 this week.)

If #6 Auburn or #2 Oregon lose, that’s when all hell will break loose. Boise and TCU will claim they deserve to get in (assuming TCU gets past #8 Utah this week), but #10 Alabama, the Big 12 Title winner, and based on the C Ratings, #4 Ohio State will have very legitimate claims. We could be in for another BCS Mess.

Other thoughts on the new C Ratings:

  • Alabama, as far as most people are concerned, is consolidating their position as the best 1-loss team. How much of that is starting the season #1 in the country? As noted above, they’ll have a legit case if they win out and they will be a trap game for their rival, but they might be overrated at the moment. Ohio State continues to be ranked behind #23 Wisconsin in the BCS, restraining their ranking, as people continue to read too much into the outcome of one game (a road loss to a team that beat their best non-conference opponent, mediocre Arizona State, by one point at home). #11 Arizona continues to be underrated and behind #13 Stanford… but as Rece Davis pointed out on “BCS Countdown”, that could change in a hurry if they beat the other elite Pac-10 teams, starting with Stanford this week. If it weren’t for their already-lofty C Rating, I’d think that would lead to people overreacting to a few games. What motivation does #21 USC have the rest of the way.
  • Baylor-#12 Oklahoma State will be for at least a share of the Big 12 South lead. Yes, BAYLOR is your current Big 12 South leader. Meanwhile, Nebraska is at least as good as Oklahoma. The last year of the Big 12 as we knew it suddenly flip-flopped the roles of the divisions. (Baylor has a terrible SoS and neither Baylor nor Oklahoma State has played the Sooners, which could be an effective Big 12 South title game.)
  • ACC Madness: #14 Virginia Tech leads the Coastal by two games, unbeaten in conference while everyone else has two conference losses. V-Tech hasn’t played any of the two-loss teams yet, though, so two losses could take it all away; they play all three in a row starting with G-Tech Thursday night, but Miami (FL) at the end of the string is the only one in positive B Points. #20 NC State’s win over #22 Florida State earned them respect in the BCS Standings; the Atlantic is anyone’s guess between those two and Maryland, who hasn’t played either yet. Clemson, of all teams, is the only ACC team not already noted in positive B Points.
  • What are the chances the Princeton-Yale Title is on the line in the SEC Title game? Pretty good; #15 South Carolina is in the lead in the East in the standings, the BCS, and the C Ratings, and the Spurrier Bowl is the only game that matters to them in terms of clinching the division. Troy and Clemson afterwards are trap games, though, both on the first page. Florida has one more conference loss and so need to avoid a loss to Vanderbilt to make the Spurrier Bowl a true effective East title game; otherwise it lets Georgia and Vandy back in it if South Carolina loses to Arkansas and Florida. #16 LSU could sneak away with the SEC West if they upset ‘Bama and Auburn loses to both Georgia and ‘Bama; if that chain of events lands them in the national title game a LOT of people will throw fits.
  • #17 Iowa skyrocketed onto the top 25 with their win over Michigan State. I think they were in negative B Points last week. Fresno State could be a trap game for #19 Nevada. #24 Hawaii makes three WAC teams in the Top 25, which seems unprecedented, just in time for the big Boise State game (also for the Broncos’ lineal title). The WAC’s conference rating is better than the Mountain West and they have more Top 25 teams. Does Boise State actually deserve more benefit of the doubt for their conference this year than TCU? Can Nevada keep this up and keep the Mountain West a Big 3 post-realignment?
  • #25 Pitt once again populates the Top 25 with a Big East team. The BCS, on the other hand, is deserted of Big East teams, probably because of the Notre Dame loss. But the Big East has a lot of parity, and no team has more than two conference losses, so their task is far from over. But they’ve already beaten Syracuse, so they can take one loss to any team and still punch a ticket to the BCS. West Virginia is STILL not that far outside the Top 25.

Best game of week: TCU @ Utah, 3:30pm ET, CBS CS (do not get me started, even with a free preview!)
Complete C Ratings

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Rankings, NFL Lineal Title | Comments (0)

College Football Rankings – Week 8

October 25, 2010 – 10:48 pm

First, for the rest of the college football season expect the college football rankings on Monday and the SNF Flex Schedule Watch on Wednesday. Second, the lineal titles have been updated; turns out San Diego blew a chance to unify the NFL titles.

There’s a non-BCS team deserving of playing in the national championship game… but it’s not #6 Boise State.

#1 TCU is the beneficiary of #4 Oklahoma’s loss to #5 Missouri, becoming the first team all year to lead the C Ratings in two different weeks. TCU’s lead over Boise State is all the more impressive considering the Mountain West is still a worse conference top-to-bottom than the WAC. Expect Boise’s rating to improve once they play #20 Nevada and Hawaii later in the year, but for now, TCU’s beatdowns of Air Force and Baylor trump narrowly beating V-Tech – and TCU themselves still has #10 Utah to play.

Missouri didn’t benefit as much as you might think from beating Oklahoma, failing even to pass the team they beat, despite winning by 9; but it was at home and Oklahoma had by far the worst A Rating of last week’s top 5. #3 Oregon managed to pass them by crushing UCLA. Similarly, because the BCS computers don’t factor in margin of victory, #9 Auburn is your new BCS #1 but actually lost a spot in the C Ratings because the C Ratings noticed they only won by a touchdown on the road to a team outside the top 10. (#16 LSU was #6 in the BCS last week but #11 in the C Ratings.)

#2 Ohio State rounds out the top five despite holding a loss. It was to a good #21 Wisconsin team on the road; all their wins have been by double digits, including a 49-0 drubbing of a Purdue team still above .500 that sent them skyrocketing up the rankings.

Other remarks on the new C Ratings:

  • The winner of the Missouri-#7 Nebraska game will win the Big 12 North and might actually be favored in the Big 12 Title Game for the first time in a long time… and the last time ever.
  • Upon further review, #8 Michigan State was #10 last week and Nebraska #6 with attendant corrections to the rest of the standings, with the implication that North Carolina was in the top 25 last week as well.
  • #11 Alabama better spend the bye studying film of the Auburn-LSU game, because it’s because of that game that the Tide now outrank the Tigers, and Bama needs to be ready for the game coming out of the bye. It’ll be their biggest test before the Iron Bowl.
  • #18 Stanford beat Washington State by ten points but fell behind two other Pac-10 teams, in part because Wazzu sucks, in part because #12 Arizona drubbed Washington by 40 points. The Wildcats are only slowly gaining respect, but it won’t kick in for real until they play the other three best teams in the Pac-10 in November. #17 USC is still puttering around the middle of the rankings, and need a win over Oregon to be playing for anything at all.
  • It looks like the win over Alabama wasn’t a fluke and the loss to Kentucky was. Vanderbilt isn’t much, but the Gamecocks lead the SEC East and are heading for a chance to prove themselves in the SEC Title Game.
  • Time for ACC Madness! Does #14 Virginia Tech, who lost to James Madison, standing unbeaten in-conference say more about the Hokies or the ACC? #19 Florida State might turn out to be a little better, though, and might lead the ACC in the C Ratings if FCS games counted the way I’d like them to. Two more ACC teams, #22 NC State and #23 Miami (FL), populate the Top 25, and both are in the places you’d expect in the standings, though NC State is knotted up with Maryland, a team that’s not on the first page let alone positive B Points.
  • Baylor, Oklahoma, and #15 Oklahoma State are actually locked up in a tight one in the Big 12 South, so Oklahoma could have been set back quite a bit by the Missouri loss. Yes, BAYLOR is ahead of the other Texas schools, and they and TEXAS A&M are the only ones in positive B Points, though neither is on the top 25.
  • #21 Wisconsin can say “a win is a win” because they beat Iowa by only one point – though it helped that it was a road game. That pretty much firms up their claim to the Capitol One Bowl; people may continue to overreact to the Ohio State win, but it won’t be enough to give them a BCS at-large, and if Michigan State goes to the national title game I hope the Rose Bowl is smart enough to pick Ohio State.
  • Yes, #24 Navy makes the top 25, hardly unprecedented. They have had some discouraging games (losing to Maryland? Beating Wake Forest by one?) but the beatdown of Notre Dame helps make up for that. #25 Florida rounds out the top 25 for real this week. They get a chance to bring the Princeton-Yale Title back to the good teams this week in the World’s Largest Cocktail Party, the first of three games they need to win to win the SEC East, but which will basically lock it up for them if they do.
  • The Big East is West Virginia’s world and everyone else is paying the rent? Not so fast my friend! The Mountaineers’ loss to Syracuse not only deserts the Top 25 of Big East teams, but combined with Pitt’s stomping of Rutgers, leaves them only two spots ahead of their rival in the C Ratings, and behind the unbeaten-in-conference Panthers in the Big East standings. The ‘Cuse is getting a lot of buzz but they’re still a mediocre team; both of their losses were bad (and one was to inconsistent Washington) and they beat West Virginia by only five; their only other two FBS wins were to South Florida, a team around the same area in the ratings, and dead-last-in-the-C-Ratings Akron.

Complete C Ratings

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Rankings, NFL Lineal Title | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Weeks 3-7

October 22, 2010 – 8:07 pm

Here are the insights gained after calculating the last five weeks of the College Football Rankings:

  • Wanna guess who was #1 after Week 3? It was a Pac-10 school, but it wasn’t high-scoring Oregon: it was Stanford. Alabama was #2, with Arizona #3, and Oregon all the way at #13 thanks to a weak schedule. Florida leapfrogged them all Week 4 by beating previously unbeaten Kentucky, and Oregon shot up to #6 after a relatively close win over Arizona State.
  • I didn’t like all the praise being heaped on to Boise before the season; it was like people wanted them to break into the BCS Title Game. And in the first rankings they’re #17. TCU, on the other hand, is #4, and moved to third behind Florida and Stanford the following week. Boise isn’t even the best team in their own conference after Week 3; that’s #11 Nevada. Beating Oregon State didn’t help them in the short term; they actually dropped to #22, behind Virginia Tech! Only in Week 5 did they climb ahead of Nevada to #15, and in week 6 they shot up to #5.
  • Looking at the Week 4 rankings, you’re probably thinking that, far from explaining many of this year’s upsets, if my rankings ruled there would actually be more of them; Florida was ranked ahead of Alabama, Stanford ahead of Oregon. That actually resulted in TCU shooting to #1 Week 5, followed by Alabama and Oregon, with Florida staying high at #4. Despite losing to Arizona earlier in the year, Iowa was at #5, followed by Oklahoma, Ohio State, Stanford, Nebraska, dropping-for-idle-hands Arizona, and Michigan. And the upsets predicted by the humans but not by me continued: Michigan State was #24 beating #11 on the road, South Carolina had been at #17 before beating Alabama.
  • Nebraska held the top spot after six weeks after a beatdown of previously-unbeaten Kansas State sent them shooting up the rankings. TCU, Ohio State, and Oregon rounded out the top five, with Oklahoma #6.
  • No one has led the rankings two weeks in a row. Oklahoma beating up on Iowa State explains why they’re now #1, but not in the BCS where margin of victory doesn’t matter. Did Texas handing Nebraska their first loss give the Sooners an SoS boost? The two major non-BCS schools, TCU and Boise State, file in at #2 and #3. 6-0 Missouri can boast of wins over first-page teams San Diego State, Texas A&M and Illinois, two of them by decent scores; #5 Oregon has beaten up on teams, but Stanford and Arizona State – an 11-point squeaker and a home win where they allowed as many points as they did against Arizona State – are their only first-page wins, and some of those wins (Tennessee, New Mexico) remain awful. Oklahoma should be on upset alert with the game in Columbia. Nebraska falls to 7th after the loss to Texas; Ohio State, unbeaten Auburn, and unbeaten Oklahoma State round out the top ten, with Michigan State at #11. (Don’t overreact to a loss!)
  • Next come unbeaten LSU, Stanford, unbeaten Utah, and Alabama to round out the top 15. Virginia Tech is 16th, and creeping back into the polls as well; non-bowl-eligible USC has been hovering around the middle of the rankings all year, and come in at #17 this week. South Carolina, Arizona, and Florida State round out the top 20, and NC State, Nevada, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Florida round out the Top 25 (of those five, only West Virginia and Wisconsin are ranked in the BCS). North Carolina, Mississippi State, Baylor, Iowa, Northwestern, Navy, Air Force, Michigan, and Oregon State make up the watch list (yes, Iowa is 15th in the BCS standings and 29th in the C Ratings – blame a pedestrian slate of opponents and a Penn State team now in the bottom half), with Arkansas, San Diego State, Clemson, Miami (FL), Troy, and UCF making up the rest of the positive B Point crowd.
  • The Big 12 appears to be the best conference, followed by the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10. Despite only one team in positive B Points the Big East is still ahead of the ACC. The WAC is surprisingly ahead of the Mountain West, which is the last year that’ll ever happen; in fact the Mountain West is only barely ahead of C-USA. The Sun Belt is actually ahead of the MAC. Kentucky is the lowest-ranked Princeton-Yale Titleholder I can think of in the time I’ve been tracking both, at #74 in the back half of FBS, with teams like UCLA and Toledo. Their opponent, Georgia, is at least 50th and can get on to the first page if they take the title.
  • Best game of week: #1 Oklahoma @ #4 Missouri, 8pm ET, ABC, for the 2006 Boise State title – and possible pole position on the road to the national championship game.

Week: 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Rankings | Comments (0)

Adventures in crazy lineal titles

September 21, 2010 – 8:29 pm

Most of the time, the college football lineal titles don’t change hands the first few weeks as all the good teams play cupcakes. Someone forgot to tell the 2006 Boise State title.

It freakily ended the season in the hands of non-bowl-eligible Washington, so perhaps an early change is to be expected, but it has changed hands every single week this season. Hopefully now that it’s in the hands of big-boy Oklahoma it’ll stay in place the next several weeks, at least until the Red River Rivalry.

All lineal titles are now properly updated.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in NFL Lineal Title | Comments (0)

Belated remarks on BYU going independent in football

September 17, 2010 – 11:51 pm

The biggest loser in the Not-So-Great Conference Shakeup of 2010 may be the Mountain West, who got screwed through no real fault of their own whatsoever.

Yay, the Pac-10 may singlehandedly destroy the Big 12! We could wind up with the Kansas schools or even more, and then the BCS would HAVE to let us in to the party! Oh wait, they called off the dogs – well, at least we got Boise State out of the deal, although now that’s a wash because the Pac-10 is adding Utah to complement Colorado and become the Pac-12. Oh well, at least it’s a wash…

…except BYU has just lost its biggest link to the Mountain West and wants to go independent in football and join the WAC in other sports! But wait, we’re adding Nevada and Fresno State to effectively destroy the WAC! But wait, BYU is STILL leaving, only they’re joining the West Coast Conference in other sports instead of the WAC! Nooooooooo!!!!!!!!!

(Incidentially, the one underplayed angle in all this is the surely-salivating-to-ESPN-execs-tongues prospect of regular BYU-Gonzaga games in the West Coast Conference. Though BYU is rarely if ever the best team in the Mountain West, it is one of the Mountain West’s stronger teams in basketball, and Gonzaga has to like the prospect of having a legitimate playing partner other than St. Mary’s.)

The Mountain West is left with 10 teams, one more than before, but only two BCS-caliber programs instead of the present three: TCU and Boise State. Nevada and Fresno State are good teams in football, by non-Boise WAC standards, but at best they’re on the level of an Air Force: they’ll sneak into the Top 25 sometimes, but they’ll rarely make true national headlines. (Air Force knocking off BYU being an exception.) That won’t help the Mountain West’s case for becoming a BCS conference or dissolving the system. In fact, BYU’s move by itself could make the system stronger than ever, especially if they get a BCS auto bid (which could be a smarter move than you might think precisely for that reason).

But why would BYU make the move? Notre Dame is under heavy pressure to join a conference at some point, so BYU is bucking the trend by leaving one. Of course they weren’t getting much help getting into the BCS by staying in the Mountain West. But the big thing BYU is banking on is its status as the Mormon university. They are banking on becoming the new Notre Dame, Notre Dame West, with every game getting national coverage and a truly national following. They want to leverage their BYU network and turn it into a national powerhouse. (It’s unlikely any football games would air on BYU TV, but the mtn. deal prevents even non-football sports from airing on BYU TV.)

The success of BYU’s declaration of independence depends heavily on whether or not BYU can put together a schedule at least as good as what they had in the Mountain West, and the outlook is staggering. If you’re going to set yourselves up to be the new Notre Dame or Notre Dame West, it makes sense to set up a rivalry with the real Notre Dame. Throw in Texas, Oregon State, and Utah, and that’s four games against teams in BCS conferences, with an eye for more. Good luck getting that in the Mountain West. And BYU has signed a deal with ESPN, which means the full ESPN hype machine will be in full effect and BYU games will regularly be on a platform with wider availability than Versus. All that’s left is recruiting.

If BYU can continue to recruit and play at the same level that they have been in the Mountain West, and regularly play in BCS games, independence will suddenly look like a viable prospect and Notre Dame can start saying “I told you so”. This could be the move that ultimately sets up the next great conference shakeup and finishes off the Big 12. The Pac-10 and Big 10 are too tightly-knit to lose any teams to independence, but they and the SEC may be the only reasonably invulnerable conferences, and even then Nebraska and Penn State have to consider the possibility (though the Big Ten Network revenues may be too much to resist).

(USC will definitely be tempted if probation and Lane Kiffin don’t prevent the program from maintaining its Carroll-era heights, especially compared to the rest of the Pac-10 - and if a team that lost its upperclassmen and can’t go to a bowl is still ranked in the polls and that ranking is warranted, I guarantee USC will win a national championship the first year off probation.)

If Texas decides the outlook is right, they could jump to independence in a heartbeat (just look at how much more money it makes in all sports than the next non-Big 10, non-SEC, non-Notre Dame school), with Oklahoma following (though the Big 12 could stay together after all if enough other teams follow suit). Other teams that were once both independent and powerhouses before the 90s shakeup – Florida State, Miami (FL) – could bolt as well, which is bad news for the ACC. With ten members, the ACC could stay alive, if not taken very seriously and looking like the new Big East (though Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and a few others are good teams), but the Big 12 would be down to eight pissed-off members, who might start looking at other conferences or at independence themselves.

But that’s trying to predict the unpredictable. Right now the future involves the impending destruction of the WAC, which is down to six teams and couldn’t even field a conference if Hawaii leaves. If the WAC can keep Hawaii in the fold they will try to replenish their numbers, probably with potential playing partners for Louisiana Tech from Conference USA and possibly the Sun Belt, but if it can’t a lot depends on what the Mountain West decides to do next, and whether they want to go straight to a football championship game or wait for better options than the WAC’s castoffs (like the Kansas schools should BYU’s defection eventually cause the Big 12 to implode).

If they do decide to go for a championship game, they will and should take Utah State and New Mexico State (the former is already rumored to be Mountain West-bound). Both, along with MWC-bound Nevada, are among the WAC’s best teams in basketball (when all is said and done the Mountain West’s new lineup would have had five teams in the NCAA Tournament last year), New Mexico State brings New Mexico’s in-state rival in-house, and while Utah State’s potential playing partners are both gone it does re-establish the Mountain West’s foothold in the sizable Utah market. That leaves Idaho, San Jose State, and Louisiana Tech. LA Tech likely joins Conference USA; Idaho and San Jose State, two of the worst college football programs in the nation, may have no choice but to go to FCS or shutter their football programs entirely. Perhaps the Big Sky or Summit League will take Idaho (although most of the Summit’s schools don’t play football so if Idaho keeps the football program the Big Sky may be the only option). The Big West may be the only geographic and cultural fit for San Jose State, and most if not all of their schools don’t play football, so their football program may be screwed unless they or Idaho want to go to the Great West.

Then begins the process of keeping a close eye on how BYU does financially and athletically over the next decade, as the future of college football may lie in their hands.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Basketball, College Football | Comments (0)