The Median Expected Score

Median Expected Score (MXS) combines the two gambling numbers associated with a game – the over/under and point spread – to determine how many points Vegas expects each team to score.

The point spread measures how many points the favorite will beat the underdog by. In other words, F – U = S, where F is the favorite’s score, U is the underdog’s score, and S is the point spread.

The over/under measures the combined number of points scored by both teams. In other words, F + U = O.

With these two formulae, it is possible to solve for F and U:

F = S + U
S + U + U = O
S + 2U = O
2U = O – S

The favorite’s MXS can then be calculated as in the first line above.

I list only the MXS and not either betting line on their own, but the over/under and point spread can be extricated from the MXS rather easily.

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