Consider, for a second, two tied teams in the same division that don’t play each other. If the team with the tiebreaker wins, the team without it has nothing to play for. If you put the team with the tiebreaker in primetime, then if the team without the tiebreaker loses, the team with it also has nothing to play for. Putting the two teams a game apart just makes it worse. You need the two teams to be tied AND you need the tiebreaker situation if both teams win to be different from the tiebreaker situation if both teams lose. But the first three tiebreakers are: division games, common games, and conference games, and the NFL has made sure both teams are playing a game that’s all three. Remember, we needed both teams to have the same result, so all three tiebreakers will move in the same direction as well. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which you can’t count on.

The situation for the wild card, when competing against teams in other divisions, isn’t much better. The same constraints as in the first half of the last paragraph apply. The first tiebreaker (after head-to-head) is conference games, which both teams are playing. The next tiebreaker is common games, where an opening appears, since common games among teams in different divisions are rare, unless the teams’ divisions played each other. It’s conceivable for one team to play a common game while the other doesn’t… but then the best case scenario is that the two teams finish tied in the common games. And what’s the next tiebreaker? Why, strength of victory, of course.

However, the other reason I wanted to make this post was a post on Pro Football Talk suggesting Broncos-Chiefs might have been selected if the Chargers had lost. While I had said the result that needed to be different was the Chiefs beating the Raiders, and so far as I know that’s still correct, I realized there really isn’t anything going against that scenario. So that provides a loophole that broadens things out a little: if a team would lose a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division a game back and playing each other, or would win a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division also tied with them and playing each other, that team has an SNF-Week-17 ready game.

So Bengals-Jets two years ago might have happened, if two of the other wild card contenders were also playing each other. But I suspect the NFL would prefer that sort of game, where one team has nothing to play for, not happen – though it’s far better if it’s a team out of the playoffs, like the Chiefs, than one in the playoffs and resting up for it, like the Bengals two years ago.

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cowboys (8-7)-Giants (8-7), Broncos (8-7)-Chiefs (6-9).
• Impact of Sunday and Monday Night Football: None, though announcement will be made before either game is over anyway.
• Analysis: NBC breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Giants won (and then started hyperventilating again when Tony Romo got injured). The Cowboys and Giants will enter their Week 17 showdown tied for the division lead. The Broncos did get shockingly blown out by the lowly Bills (shades of the pre-Tebow era), and the Lions finished off the Chargers, but the Chiefs couldn’t do their part.
• Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-8)
WEST 48-6	510-4
2 teams at 7-7
SOUTH 310-4	68-6
CLINCHED
NORTH 210-4	8-6
10-4	7-7
EAST 111-3	7-7
CLINCHED	7-7

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (7-7)
EAST 48-6	59-5
7-7
SOUTH 311-3	69-5
9-5
WEST 211-3
CLINCHED
NORTH 113-1
CLINCHED

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Broncos-Chiefs. Chargers-Raiders is out because a Broncos win Week 17 would lock up the division no matter what else happens these next two weeks.
• Cowboys-Giants will be picked if: The Giants win OR the Cowboys lose AND the situation below doesn’t happen. A Giants win Week 16 knocks the Eagles out of the playoffs. If the Giants lose, a Cowboys win locks up the division for them, while a Cowboys loss leaves open the possibility that the Giants would already be eliminated before primetime.
• Broncos-Chiefs will be picked if: The Giants lose AND the Broncos lose AND the Chiefs beat the Raiders AND the Chargers lose. It’s a lot to have happen, and the Broncos are playing the floundering Bills, but if the Chiefs beat the Broncos they would win even a three-way tiebreaker, thanks in large part to what would be a sweep of the Raiders. Because NBC hasn’t had the Tebow fill they wanted, they might choose this game even if the Giants win, but you know Fox is salivating more at the prospect of Cowboys-Giants than CBS is salivating at the prospect of Broncos-Chiefs. If neither of these scenarios happen? NBC is screwed. That’s why I think they might go with Cowboys-Giants even if the Cowboys haven’t done so much as clinch the division. NBC will be rooting hard for the Giants on Saturday, and if they lose we’ll learn a lot about the NFL’s priorities and contingencies.

Last week, the NFL renewed its deals with CBS, Fox, and NBC for another nine years through 2022. One part of the deal will involve “expanded flex scheduling”, which apparently means NBC will be able to flex out of games as early as Week 5, but only if the game is a disaster waiting to happen like the Colts’ games this year. But it will also mean that games could flip between CBS and Fox. Before this point, there was an AFC network and an NFC network, and which games aired on which networks was set in stone. Now, while the rules for which games air on which networks will remain the same, some games may air on the other network on occasion. The situation we saw a few weeks ago, where Broncos-Vikings, normally a CBS game, flipped to Fox, will become more common. The exact rules haven’t been decided on, but one reason to flip games may be to shore up the second half of the doubleheader, though Broncos-Vikings became the premier game of the first half of the doubleheader.

That means that starting in 2014, my SNF Flex Schedule Watch could be very different… and I may have to give up the ghost entirely if the rules end up being too complicated.

The NFL also made a change to how it divvies up playoff games. NBC has traded in one of its Wild Card games for a divisional game. Most of the smart money has ESPN picking up the Wild Card game NBC gave up, putting a playoff game on cable for the first time. The third divisional game could conceivably rotate between CBS and Fox, go to ESPN as well, or go to NBC as well. My money is that it’ll go to NBC, balancing the number of playoff games on the broadcast networks before the Super Bowl at three apiece. Rotating between CBS and Fox would be hard logistically, and the NFL doesn’t seem to be the sort of entity that lets ESPN have playoff games that deep.

The NFL Network will also expand its Thursday Night schedule. This doesn’t necessarily mean selling the back half of the Thursday Night package is off the table, if it means going to 10-12 as a “stepping stone” to a full-season split schedule and as a way to put more pressure on those holdouts that don’t carry NFLN, but I could see it happening (hopefully it doesn’t mean the NFL will keep the additional NFLN games and try for an 18-game schedule again). However, the Thanksgiving Night game is moving to NBC, which doesn’t really surprise me, but does seem to be a good sign for NBC Sports Network’s prospects of winning the Thursday Night package (although if NBCSN does win it’s likely to be only seven games as a result of this). By my calculations, that means the Thursday night schedule would begin somewhere around Week 4-6.

Finally, NBC Sports Network will throw its hat into the ring of the Sunday morning pregame shows. That’s another good sign for NBC Sports’ prospects of winning the Thursday night package; however, if the NFL went with Turner then every single contender in the sports TV wars would have a Sunday morning pregame show.

					Sport-Specific Networks
5	5.5	4.5	2.5	0	1.5

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-7)
WEST 48-5	510-3
7-6
EAST 310-3	68-5
8-5
NORTH 210-3	7-6
10-3	7-6
SOUTH 110-3	7-6
CLINCHED

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST 47-6	58-5
7-6
SOUTH 310-3	68-5
8-5
WEST 210-3	7-6
CLINCHED	7-6
NORTH 113-0
CLINCHED

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Lions-Packers, Chargers-Raiders. Tiebreakers eliminate Titans-Texans and Ravens-Bengals.
• Chances for Cowboys-Giants: 80 percent. Here are the scenarios for this game not to be picked: 1) One team loses their next two games and the other team wins their next two games. 2) The Cowboys beat the Bucs tonight, but lose to the Eagles next week while the Giants win their next two, as the Giants would hold the common-games tiebreaker even with a loss to the Cowboys in that situation. 3) and this is a maybe, considering the division winner doesn’t even have a good enough record for the wild card at the moment and the paucity of other options: the loser of the game still has a chance to make the playoffs. Any other scenario, and this game is for the NFC East crown with the loser likely out of the playoffs, and that would be by far the most TV-friendly game NBC could hope for. Those other scenarios are very possible, but the return match is looking very likely for a return to NBC.
• Chances for Lions-Packers: 10 percent. The Pack have already locked up the division, so a) they would have to be gunning for 16-0, b) preferably the Lions wouldn’t be fighting for a playoff spot or at least their game wouldn’t have an impact on other teams’ playoff hopes even if they’re knocked out by the end of the day, and c) preferably Cowboys-Giants runs into one of those conditions that make it irrelevant. What saves it is that if situation c) happens, this is pretty likely to be the best game available.
• Chances for Chargers-Raiders: 10 percent. What makes this game a long shot is that neither team is in the playoffs at the moment, but if the Broncos collapse this could luck into being an AFC West title game, and while the Jets and preferably Titans and Bengals would need to collapse it could conceivably be for the wild card as well. If the Broncos lose their next two, and the Chargers and Raiders win their next two, and Cowboys-Giants is irrelevant, and (maybe) the Packers lose one of their next two, this game is getting flexed in because the Chargers’ divisional record would trump the Raiders, and if necessary, their head-to-head record would trump the Raiders and Broncos. But that’s a lot of ifs, so if Cowboys-Giants becomes irrelevant NBC may well find itself stuck, especially if the Packers aren’t 15-0.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

• Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 15 (December 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ San Diego. This one was announced substantially later than normal, indeed later than the 12-day window the rules allow, thanks to CBS actually fighting to keep Pats-Broncos, with Robert Kraft (who’s a landlord for a CBS-owned restaurant) taking their side. Why CBS’s opinions should have any relevance whatsoever when the NFL is supposed to make the decisions to support NBC’s package is beyond me. This is why we have the protection system; CBS doesn’t get to decide after Week 13 “oh, we’d like to keep this game too.” While there are extenuating circumstances here (the NFL moved a normally-CBS Broncos-Vikings game to Fox this past week, and all involved networks are in the midst of contract renegotiations), this may presage a tweak of the flex schedule rules in the next contract. I fully expected the game to keep its spot anyway once the Chargers won, because it meant the Chargers weren’t so godawful as to overrule the tentative game bias (that’s why Lions-Raiders didn’t get flexed in either), so it also shows how desperate for Tebow NBC is. Everyone looks bad all the way around.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-7)
WEST 47-5	59-3
7-5
NORTH 39-3	67-5
9-3
EAST 29-3	7-5
7-5	7-5
SOUTH 19-3	7-5
7-5

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-7)
EAST 47-5	57-5
6-6
SOUTH 39-3	67-5
7-5
WEST 210-2	7-5
CLINCHED	6-6
NORTH 112-0
CLINCHED

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals. The AFC West, AFC East, and NFC South just don’t pair up right.

• Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
• Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? There aren’t many alternatives, but…
• Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Lions (7-5)-Raiders (7-5), Patriots (9-3)-Broncos (7-5).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The Chargers will be desperately defending the tentative tonight.
• Analysis: Given the tentative game bias I think this game is still fairly safe if the Chargers are 5-7, but if they lose again to fall to 4-8? Why would NBC and the NFL keep a lopsided 9-3 v. 4-8 clash with two games each involving two teams at at least 7-5? As I said last week, with the Broncos winning again there’s no reason not to go with the Tom Brady-Tim Tebow clash, and the Lions and Raiders losing only helps in that regard. If you’d told me two months ago that Ravens-Chargers being flexed out for Patriots-Broncos was a very real possibility, I’d have said you were crazy.
• Final prediction: Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers (if the Chargers win); New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (if the Chargers lose).

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

• Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 15 (December 18):

• Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
• Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? There aren’t many alternatives, but…
• Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Raiders and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, unless you consider the unbeaten Packers beating up on the 4-7 Chiefs “remotely good”.
• Analysis: However, we’ve seen an increasing polarization of the league to the extent that “remotely good” pretty much means “good” (there is only one team in the league at 5-6, the Bills). Lions-Raiders is 7-4 v. 7-4, but the real attraction may be Patriots-Broncos, at 8-3 v. 6-5 and the prospect of Tom Brady v. Tim Tebow. Compare that to Ravens-Chargers at 8-3 v. 4-7. None of the teams involved are close to maxing out, so a flex is a very real possibility. If the Broncos beat the Vikings – and why wouldn’t they? – there’s almost no reason not to put Patriots-Broncos on Sunday night, which would have been unthinkable a month and a half ago. Unless the Chargers can salvage something by beating the woebegone Jags Monday night…

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-6)
WEST 47-4	58-3
6-5
NORTH 38-3	67-4
8-3
EAST 28-3	6-5
6-5	6-5
SOUTH 18-3	6-5
6-5

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFFS
EAST 47-4	57-4	2-9
6-5
SOUTH 38-3	67-4
7-4
WEST 29-2	7-4
4-7	6-5
NORTH 111-0
2 tied at 7-4

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals. Bills-Patriots is looking like a dark horse more than anything, and the AFC West and NFC South just don’t pair up right.

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and tied for the division lead entering Week 12. For a flex to have ever been in the realm of possibility, one or both teams would have had to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
• Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Texans (8-3)-Bengals (7-4), Raiders (7-4)-Packers (11-0), Saints (7-3)-Titans (6-5), Broncos (6-5)-Bears (7-4).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can improve their chances at the expense of one of the tentative teams.
• Analysis: I said last week that both teams would have to lose for this game to be flexed out, and even then the chances would be extremely slim, and the Cowboys won. Texans-Bengals and Raiders-Packers would be better games even if the Giants won in terms of average record, though Saints-Titans and Broncos-Bears are only equivalent games at best, so they’re out. But Raiders-Packers is lopsided (and the undefeated factor is only likely to come into play Week 17), and even if Texans-Bengals finishes a full game ahead of Cowboys-Giants, they’re not nearly as TV-attractive. Regardless of whether the division lead actually ends up on the line, the tentative game bias wins again. (And keep an eye out there, because there’s a chance the division won’t be settled Week 17 and the return match at the Met winds up on NBC as well!)
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
• Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

• Selected game: New England @ NY Jets.

Week 11 (November 20):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 12 (November 27):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City.

Week 13 (December 4):

• Selected game: Detroit @ New Orleans.

Week 14 (December 11):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and both teams tied for the division lead. For a flex to have ever been in the realm of possibility, one or both teams would have had to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
• Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Texans-Bengals and Raiders-Packers are the only games involving two teams over .500; Saints-Titans and Broncos-Bears are also in the mix. Games involving 4-6 teams (Bills-Chargers and Chiefs-Jets) aren’t worth considering.
• Analysis: Probably the Giants and Cowboys would have to both lose to get this game flexed out, and even then it’d still be for the NFC East lead. But that would be an all-6-5 game, three of the other games I mentioned involve teams at 7-3 already, and the fourth is 6-4 v. 10-0. Although Texans-Bengals is potentially the best game overall, in terms of not being lopsided, Raiders-Packers may be the game most able to overcome the Cowboys’ and Giants’ TV-friendliness, and Broncos-Bears is up there is well because of the Bears and the Tebow factor. Given the tentative game bias, the TV-friendliness of the teams, and the stakes, I have a hard time seeing this game flexed out, but I can’t quite bring myself to pull the trigger early.

Week 15 (December 18):

• Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
• Prospects: At one point this game was the only one of NBC’s tentatives involving two teams above .500. Might the Chargers’ mid-season swoon be putting this one in flex jeopardy? Maybe not, given the alternatives.
• Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Raiders, Packers-Chiefs, and Patriots-Broncos are the only remotely good options, with Seahawks-Bears starting to emerge as a dark horse, and Lions-Raiders is the only one involving two teams over .500.

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
WEST 46-4	57-3
		5-5
NORTH 37-3	66-4
7-3
EAST 27-3	5-5
2 tied at 5-5	5-5
SOUTH 17-3	5-5
5-5	5-5

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	ALSO IN NFC EAST CONTENTION
EAST 46-4	56-3	4-6
6-4
SOUTH 37-3	66-3
6-4
WEST 29-1	6-4
4-6	6-4
NORTH 110-0
2 tied at 7-3

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Titans-Texans, Lions-Packers, Ravens-Bengals, Bucs-Falcons, Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Raiders, Chiefs-Broncos.