In the past, the main defense of this practice was that even if they had no chance of getting the job, perhaps they could make an impression that would lead to them getting some job in the future, that would get them into the “good ol’ boys network”. I’m going to say right now that Leslie Frazier is going to be named a head coach in the NFL a year from now, and I’d bet better-than-even odds that he would not have if he weren’t interviewed for the Seahawks job. I mean, every hardcore football fan in America has heard of Frazier now; how many heard of him before he became a symbol of everything “wrong” with the Rooney Rule?

If a team has someone in mind for their head coaching vacancy, why not let them hire that person? I mean, if, as I’ve heard people suggest, the practice constitutes something Roger Goodell needs to do something about, what do you do about it? Do you force teams to hire black head coaches when they don’t want to? Do you force the Seahawks to hire Leslie Frazier instead of Pete Carroll? If not, how do you determine when to lay down the law and when not to? Even when it’s time to lay down the law, how do you do so? How do you close loopholes without getting ridiculous? How do you avoid “reverse racism”? It just seems impossible and unnecessary to enforce the spirit of the law on top of the letter.

Funny how none of the previous instances have resulted in as much outrage as now…

Still, when I heard the news this morning I was willing to consider any number of unfortunate but understandable reasons. Perhaps they had a new GM in mind who didn’t like Mora, or they decided they needed a complete purge and Mora got caught up in that.

But if they fired Jim Mora to hire Pete Carroll, as is being heavily rumored? To go after yet another coach that was great in college but which is far from a guarantee of NFL success – one that has ALREADY proven he couldn’t hang it in the NFL? Carroll, I hope, isn’t deciding one rebuilding year at USC is a sign he’s completely over the hill in college and needs to bolt back to the NFL where he couldn’t hang it.

If the Seahawks are letting themselves toss out a coach that doesn’t deserve it because they’re stupid enough to be blinded by a coach’s credentials in college while ignoring his NFL chops (and before you tell me he has an NFL-style offense and grooms NFL players, keep in mind the struggles of Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush in the NFL), then either whoever made this move as a condition to become GM will be completely unable to turn the Hawks around, or Mike Holmgren was a better GM than we thought to lead the Hawks to the Super Bowl despite Paul Allen’s ownership.

And I’m not even normally a Hawks or Trojans partisan.

The panel has selected a list of 15 finalists from the modern era, defined as playing all or part of their careers within the last 25 years. A player must have spent 5 years out of the league before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2004 season will be eligible for induction in 2010.

During Super Bowl Weekend, the panel will meet and narrow down the list of modern-era finalists down to five. Those five will be considered alongside two senior candidates, selected by a nine-member subpanel of the larger panel last August, for a total of seven. From this list, at least four and no more than seven people will be selected for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

My prediction for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010 is:

Jerry Rice
Emmitt Smith
Shannon Sharpe
John Randle
Russ Grimm

Hall of Fame Game: 49ers v. Cowboys

• Jets: Win OR BAL, DEN, HOU, MIA, and JAX loss.
• Ravens: Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out.
• Broncos: Win and PIT and (NYJ or BAL) loss OR Win and (NYJ or BAL) loss and HOU win OR PIT and any three of NYJ, BAL, HOU, or JAX loss.
• Texans: Win and any two of NYJ, BAL, or DEN loss.
• Steelers: Win and HOU and (NYJ or BAL) loss OR Win and NYJ, DEN, and BAL loss.
• Dolphins: Win and NYJ, BAL, HOU, and JAX loss.
• Jaguars: Win and any three of NYJ, BAL, HOU, or PIT loss.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-8)
EAST 49-5	58-6
7-7
NORTH 39-5	68-6
8-6
WEST 211-3	6 teams at 7-7
CLINCHED
SOUTH 114-0
CLINCHED
ALL DIVISION LEADERS HAVE CLINCHED AT LEAST A PLAYOFF SPOT

• AFC East: Patriots (@Texans) lead by two over Dolphins (v. Steelers) and Jets, both of which they split the series with. (Since Miami swept the Jets a three-way tie would go to the Dolphins.) The Patriots and Dolphins each have divisional records of 4-2 to the Jets’ 2-4, eliminating the Jets, and I’ll wait to research common games until Sunday.
• AFC North: Bengals (@Jets) lead, Ravens (@Raiders) a game back, Steelers out by being swept.
• AFC South: Colts clinched.
• AFC West: Chargers clinched.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos (v. Chiefs) and Ravens would get the nod (the Ravens beat the Broncos earlier in the season). The Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Jaguars (@Browns), Texans, and Titans (@Seahawks) are a game back.
• AFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Colts have locked up the 1. Chargers (v. Redskins) have a two-game lead for the two over the Bengals and Patriots. Bengals-Jets and Dolphins-Steelers the main AFC contenders, but a lot depends on how the wild Wild Card shakes out.

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (7-7)
WEST 49-5	59-5	*
CLINCHED
EAST 310-4	69-5
9-5
NORTH 211-3	8-6
9-5
SOUTH 113-1
CLINCHED
OUT ON TIEBREAKERS	CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT, POSSIBLY DIVISION	CLINCHED 1st-RD BYE

• NFC East: Eagles (@Cowboys) lead, Cowboys a game back, Giants two back. Because the Cowboys and Eagles play each other, the scenario that ends with the Giants tied for the division creates a three-way tie. The Cowboys would lose the division tiebreaker and the Eagles swept the Giants, so the Eagles would win the division.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 2 games over Packers, and I don’t know if you noticed, but the Vikings swept that series.
• NFC South: Saints clinched.
• NFC West: Cardinals clinched.
• NFC Wild Card: The Packers (@Cardinals) and Cowboys would get the nod if the season ended today (Green Bay beat Dallas), with the Giants (@Vikings) a game back and the Falcons waiting in the wings but would still finish with a worse conference record than the Packers or Cowboys.
• NFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Saints (@Panthers) lead by two over Vikings, but scenario that leads to tie would give the Vikings a better conference record. Vikings lead by one over Eagles, who lead by one over Cardinals.
• Analysis: The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles and Giants-Vikings, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, which would seem to favor the AFC’s chaotic race at the moment… unless the very likely case happens where Cowboys-Eagles is an effective NFC East title game, even if the loser is still in the playoffs. (See why Broncos-Eagles wasn’t picked for Week 16?) This year I’ll track evolving playoff scenarios on Twitter this Sunday.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins and Jets a game back, Bills hanging on a tiebreaker (I’m too lazy to look up common games). New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, and Miami plays Pittsburgh.
• AFC North: Bengals lead, Ravens two games back, Steelers out by being swept. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Ravens play the Raiders.
• AFC South: Colts clinched.
• AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos two back, Chiefs and Raiders out. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos and one of the Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, and Jaguars (who play the Browns – written from a perspective before Thursday night) would get the nod, with the Steelers, Titans (who play the Seahawks), and Texans a game back. The Bills are waiting in the wings and play the Colts. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
• NFC East: Eagles lead, Cowboys a game back, Giants two back, Redskins out. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 2 games over Packers. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals.
• NFC South: Saints clinched.
• NFC West: Cardinals lead by 2 over 49ers with the Seahawks out by being swept. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams.
• NFC Wild Card: The Packers and Cowboys would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants a game back and the Falcons, who play the Bucs, and Niners waiting in the wings. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, and that would seem to favor the AFC’s chaotic race at the moment.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Selected game: Minnesota @ Carolina. See here for why a game involving two small markets that’s this lopsided was kept.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 8-4 v. 3-9, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles, at 8-4 v. 8-4, and Jags-Patriots, at 7-5 v. 7-5.
• Analysis: Normally we would expect Broncos-Eagles to be the favorite with Jags-Patriots involving a team too obscure in the Jags even if things break down right. Two things work against it: First, Cowboys-Redskins is still the NFL’s biggest rivalry. Second, picking Broncos-Ravens moves from a Fox game to a CBS game, for the penultimate week of the season, which could force the selection of a Fox game Week 17. Right now, Fox has the better games anyway, but Week 17 is so dependent on circumstances it’s unpredictable even after Week 15.  But the killer could be the Eagles becoming maxed out on NBC appearances, preventing NBC from getting a potentially very valuable Fox game Week 17: Cowboys-Eagles.
• Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (no change).

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins and Jets a game back, Bills another two back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, and Miami plays Pittsburgh.
• AFC North: Bengals lead, Ravens and Steelers three games back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns out.
• AFC South: Colts clinched.
• AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders out. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos and Jags (who play the Browns) would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, and Steelers a game back. The Titans and Texans are waiting in the wings; the Titans play the Seahawks. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
• NFC East: Cowboys and Eagles tied for lead, Giants a game back, Redskins out. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 2 games over Packers. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals.
• NFC South: Saints clinched.
• NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers and Seahawks. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
• NFC Wild Card: The Packers and Cowboys-Eagles loser would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants a game back and the Falcons, who play the Bucs, waiting in the wings. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 10-1 and the Panthers 4-7. NBC is already worshipping at the Favre altar Week 13, against a team that is actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Two good protected game choices mean that NBC can only select from games involving other teams with losing records. Bears-Ravens is out. Falcons-Jets is 6-5 v. 5-6, while 49ers-Eagles might be the most palatable at 7-4 v. 5-6 (but 5-6 is only two back in the NFC West). Dolphins-Titans is 5-6 v. 5-6 but may be the best of the bunch, with the Titans on fire.
• Analysis: Given how good and otherwise appealing the Vikings are, and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, Vikings-Panthers may keep its spot yet; the main points against it are lopsidedness, the size of the markets, and the Panthers falling out of the playoff chase. But even if the Panthers keep losing, and one of the 5-6 teams wins, I don’t think there’s a compelling case that one of the other games is better for TV than Favremania.
• Final prediction: Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (no change).

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 8-3 v. 3-8, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles, a battle of one-game-back teams at 7-4, and Jags-Patriots, at 7-4 v. 6-5. They may make appealing cases for the flex, but are they enough to sweep the NFL off its feet?

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins and Jets two back, Bills another game back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
• AFC North: Bengals lead, Ravens and Steelers two games back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns out.
• AFC South: Colts clinched (Jags lose common games tiebreaker).
• AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders out on tiebreakers. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos and either the Jags, Ravens, or Steelers would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Jets, Titans, and Texans a game back. The Jags play the Browns; the Titans play the Seahawks. The Bills are waiting in the wings. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
• NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles a game back, Giants another one, Redskins hanging on tiebreakers. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers with the Bears out. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
• NFC South: Saints lead, Falcons only hanging on by division tiebreaker. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
• NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers with the Seahawks a game behind that. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
• NFC Wild Card: The Packers and Eagles would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants and Falcons a game back and the Niners waiting in the wings. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 7-4 v. 6-5. However, there are strong flex contenders…
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Bengals (8-3)-Vikings (10-1), Broncos (7-4)-Colts (11-0), Saints (10-0)-Falcons (6-5), and Jags (6-5)-Dolphins (5-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The prospects of Saints-Falcons depends on whether the Saints are still unbeaten. After tonight, that’s probably the Saints’ best chance for a loss.
• Analysis: The Broncos got back on track to stay ahead of the Falcons and the Colts are still unbeaten, but picking them would shut NBC out of the Colts the rest of the year, although that’s not as much of a problem as it sounds given the only half-decent team the Colts face the rest of the way is already scheduled for NFL Network. With the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling with both teams winning and appears to be the current favorite (but it would probably mean three straight weeks of Favremania and limit NBC’s ability to flex the Vikings in again later). The Giants’ loss makes a flex much more likely, and the NFL can’t go wrong with either Broncos-Colts or Bengals-Vikings.
• Final prediction: Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts.
• Actual selection: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (no change). Not terribly surprising, given the problems with the other games and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, but still a bit less than what NBC could have gotten.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 6-4 v. 6-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons all remain very strong contenders. Jags-Dolphins worthy of note but not likely to go anywhere.
• Analysis: With the Broncos at 6-4 and no longer leading the division, you can pretty much eliminate Broncos-Colts if the Colts lose, and even if the Colts win, picking them would shut NBC out of the Colts the rest of the year, although that’s not as much of a problem as it sounds given the only half-decent team the Colts face the rest of the way is already scheduled for NFL Network. With the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 7-3 v. 9-1 looks mighty compelling and appears to be the current favorite (but it would probably mean three straight weeks of Favremania and limit NBC’s ability to flex the Vikings in again later), and Saints-Falcons has the same undefeated factor as the Colts (but the Falcons are still worse than the Broncos). And then there’s the existing tentative game. For Saints-Falcons to even have a shot it needs both teams to win and the Broncos (or maybe Colts) to lose. If the Eagles and Giants both win I would favor it keeping the spot given the problems with the other games and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex; if the Broncos and Colts both win it becomes difficult to argue against. Otherwise, and even in those situations, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling – unless either team loses…

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 9-1 and the Panthers 4-6. NBC is already worshipping at the Favre altar Week 13 and possibly Week 14, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Two good protected game choices mean that NBC can only select from games involving other teams with losing records. Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, and sudden dark horse Dolphins-Titans are all 5-5 v. 4-6, while 49ers-Eagles is a bit better (at the cost of lopsidedness) at 6-4 v. 4-6. Given how good and otherwise appealing the Vikings are, and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, Vikings-Cardinals may keep its spot yet; the main point against it is lopsidedness, especially since a 4-6 team is far from out of the playoff picture, especially in the NFC (although that race may have tightened – see below).

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 7-3 v. 3-7, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jags-Patriots, both involving nothing but teams at 6-4 or, in the case of the Pats, better. They (as well as dark horse battle of 5-5 teams Texans-Dolphins) may make appealing cases for the flex, but are they enough to sweep the NFL off its feet?

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins two back, Jets another game back, Bills another game back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
• AFC North: Bengals lead, Steelers a game back, Ravens waiting in the wings. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns would have to resort to tiebreakers I’m not ready to look up yet.
• AFC South: Colts running away with it; Jags a full four back, while the Titans are down to tiebreakers. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
• AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders four back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, any two of the Broncos, Jags, and Steelers would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Texans, and Ravens a game back. The Titans and Jets are waiting in the wings; the Titans play the Seahawks. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
• NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles and Giants a game back, Redskins mathematically in it. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers with the Bears two behind that. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
• NFC South: Saints lead by 5 over Falcons, with the Panthers a game behind that. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
• NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers with the Seahawks a game behind that and the Rams hanging on by a tiebreaker. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
• NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Eagles, Giants, and Packers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Falcons a game back and the Bears, Panthers, and Niners waiting in the wings, giving Panthers-Saints dark-horse appeal. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.