Category Archives: NFL

What does the NFL Network’s expanded schedule mean for the NFL’s efforts to sell some of it?

February 3, 2012 – 3:19 pm

Roger Goodell’s announcement at his Super Bowl press conference that the NFL Network would get an expanded slate of primetime games isn’t really new news by itself. But when the NFL first announced that the NFLN would get this slate, it sounded like they would get 10-12 games, which allowed for speculation that the NFL was expanding NFLN’s slate as a short-term move to ease people into a full-season Thursday Night slate and goose NFLN distribution for one last time before the NFL sold half of that full-season slate to another entity.

So to hear that NFLN will have a 13-game slate, starting the second week of the season, taking only Week 16 off among weeks NBC doesn’t already have and that the NFL would be willing to schedule a Thursday night game on, effectively going to a full-season slate already… should that shock us into realizing that the plan the NFL seemed to be floating during the lockout is off the table?

When you combine it with NBC’s Thanksgiving night game, and NFLN seemingly abandoning Saturdays, which would mean that there are now, at most, 14 games to go around where before there were 16, it certainly should look like a distinct possibility. The NFL could very conceivably maintain this schedule indefinitely if they really wanted to. If you really wanted to engage in wishful thinking, you could say that NFLN is only serving as a placeholder because the NFL didn’t sell the Thursday night package this year, and they’ll have a package in place for next year… but there’s only so long you can maintain that notion. (And I don’t even want to dignify the notion of selling a Saturday night package.) The best chance for the NFL to eventually sell half of its Thursday night slate is if they administer an even bigger poison pill: an 18-game schedule, which the owners clearly still want.

At this late stage, it’s not as though losing that contract would be a disaster, at least not for the media companies. This year will see a number of high-stakes rights battles go down, including MLB, NASCAR, and the BCS, and I wonder if part of the reason the NFL is doing this is because several media companies have lost interest and intend on scaling back their bids in the near term. As much as Comcast, the company with probably the most interest, would love to use NFL programming to grow its NBC Sports Network, they could do the same thing with an MLB or NASCAR contract, possibly (I haven’t looked up the numbers) for cheaper, and attract a smaller but broader audience more days of the year and possibly get some big events on top of it. ESPN, which I had ranked third-most likely, was probably only really in it to keep Comcast from getting it. That leaves Turner and Fox; as much as Turner would love to get back into the NFL, they’re in a strong enough position as it is that they don’t really need it (unless they intended to put games on truTV), while Fox continues to be hamstrung by its inability to raise subscriber fees for FX.

The NFL would be leaving a lot of money on the table if they didn’t sell off those games, but they already extorted a lot more money out of their broadcast partners, and it’s apparent they’re more pissed that there are still some big-time holdouts for NFLN distribution even after the RedZone offer – although color me skeptical that throwing more third-tier primetime games on the pile is really going to bring Time Warner Cable around at this point if they weren’t brought around already. (This may be why Roger Goodell talks about putting every team in primetime… but the games will be shown on broadcast in the local markets, so those people won’t be motivated to call their cable provider, and showing every team means you’re going to be putting on some pretty crappy teams with apathetic fanbases, which may underline the cable companies’ point and, considering apparently every team will play a Thursday game following a Sunday game, might even further devalue the half of the package you sell because the scheduling ends up being so restrictive.)

On another note, did the NFL just kill Thursday as a viable college football night?

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Sports TV Business | Comments (0)

An Early-Week Super Bowl Preview

January 30, 2012 – 11:59 pm
Median Expected Score
Giants 26
Patriots 29

Four years later, they meet again. The last time these teams did this it resulted in one of the best Super Bowls of all time, and quite possibly the best game of the entire last decade. Can the rematch live up to the original?

Probably not. Last time, the Patriots were trying to become the second team in NFL history to go completely undefeated in the regular season and postseason, while the Giants were the scrappy underdogs that just barely squeaked into the playoffs and shocked the world in the Super Bowl. This year, the Giants made another Cinderella run, but they aren’t quite shocking the world the way they did four years ago; they actually won their division, more than a few people noted how hot they were playing down the stretch, and they’ve already beaten the team that tried to go unbeaten this year. Meanwhile, the Patriots were the class of a rather inferior AFC, hardly showing the dominance of four years ago and showing a decided weakness on defense, admittedly like most of the league’s best teams. Both teams needed miscues from their championship game opponents to get here, and we already saw this year’s sports movie. None of the context that went into the game four years ago is there, and that alone will probably keep it from living up to that level.

That the Giants are playing as well as they are does throw in a few storylines of its own, however. Probably one of the bigger ones involves Eli Manning. Four years ago, no one thought he would ever be anywhere near as good as his brother. He’s since become one of the league’s better quarterbacks, but still raised eyebrows in the preseason when he claimed that he should be considered an elite quarterback on par with Tom Brady. While he didn’t put up the gaudy numbers Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Brady put up this year, he still managed to silence the critics and prove that he really is that good a quarterback, being named the NFC’s #3 quarterback in the Pro Bowl behind Rodgers and Brees. Now he has a chance to actually double his brother’s Super Bowl count, possibly for all time. And who does he have a chance to beat to do it? Why, Tom Brady, of course.

Brady has already cemented a Hall of Fame resume, but it’s still interesting how another Super Bowl would impact his legacy. For the past few years, we thought that night in Glendale was the last night of the Patriots dynasty, as, while the Patriots remained one of the league’s elite teams, injuries and underperforming teams kept them out of even the conference championship game. It’s been something like seven years since Brady’s last Super Bowl, and at his age it’s fair to wonder how many more seasons he has left in him. Seeing Drew Bledsoe, the man whose injury set the stage for his entire career, handing out the Lamar Hunt Trophy, you had to wonder if it was a fitting bookend to his career. How would one last postscript Super Bowl to tie Joe Montana be seen when we look back on Brady’s storied career?

Throw in the game being played in Indianapolis, home of Eli’s brother and the Patriots’ main rival over the past decade, and it’s easy to see why Peyton Manning’s shadow hangs over the game, and why there are still plenty of storylines for Giants-Patriots II.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in NFL Lineal Title | Comments (0)

Da Blog is back, baby!

January 19, 2012 – 6:54 pm

Well, I can’t say this was the happiest 36 hours Da Blog has ever had.

First, I found out I’d deleted the plugin I’d used when first setting up Da Blog to hide it from public view, and couldn’t find it again. Then I downloaded a plugin that just coughed up a 503 error whenever I went to a WordPress-powered page – even my admin section, meaning I wound up having to disable all my plugins in my database administration just to undo the damage. Then, after finding a working plugin, I upgraded to the latest version of WordPress, only to discover too late that the plugin I was counting on to pick up the slack for the old one didn’t actually work that way.

So now we’re back on the road, and the Sports and Webcomics subsites are running on the last developmental version of the old plugin until I can find a longer-term solution. There are a few quirks, most notably that the main pages of both sites are currently serving up all my posts instead of just the ones in those categories, but it should still be functional. If you see any other problems, give me a holler in the comments.

However, now I have a new problem: the power went out at our house this morning and might not be back until partway through the weekend. As such, I’m going to queue up a quick post to go out tomorrow to continue the streak and won’t be able to do any more work on Da Blog or the site until Monday at the latest (and I really hope it can be sooner). I know I promised a full-fledged preview of the conference championship games, but the MXSes will have to suffice: Ravens 21½-28½ Patriots, Giants 19¾-22¼ 49ers.

More to come on Monday, including – hopefully – the much-delayed launch of the forum.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in About Me, Blog News | Comments (0)

A Miniature Preview of the Divisional Games

January 13, 2012 – 10:23 pm

All games are listed with their respective median expected scores.

Saints 25½-21½ 49ers
Fox, Saturday 4:30pm ET, announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa
Most people still haven’t seen enough of the Niners to trust them enough, but the Saints are playing better than they have been all season. Then again, they’ve always been a different team at home than on the road; only time will tell if the Niners have the defense to stop Drew Brees and Co.

Broncos 18½-32 Patriots
CBS, Saturday 8pm ET, announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
If I was a betting man, I’d put good money on the Broncos, and maybe put a little on the under as well. Forget about Tebow for a second. The Pats’ defense… isn’t that great, while the Broncos have been winning with their defense. Even if you don’t think the Broncos are going to win, that MXS doesn’t make much sense to me, especially if you think what we saw last week from Tebow is a sign he’s becoming an actual quarterback.

Texans 14¼-21¾ Ravens
CBS, Sunday 1pm ET, announcers: Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
That’s one of the lower MXS scores I’ve seen all season (though not the lowest of the playoffs – Denver had an MXS of 13 for their game with the Steelers). I know the Ravens have a vaunted defense, but the Texans offense isn’t chopped liver, even with T.J. Yates as their quarterback. Despite how well the Texans played all year, this game has the feel of the Texans being the sacrificial lamb to allow the Ravens to move on in a game no one will watch, but if I was a betting man, I’d split the Texans with the over, with more money on the over.

Giants 22¾-30¼ Packers
Fox, Sunday 4:30pm ET, announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver, Chris Myers
The Giants are on such a winning streak, looked so dominant against the Falcons, and looked so good against the Packers that people have forgotten that they needed to beat the Cowboys the last week of the regular season to make the playoffs at 9-7 and are talking about them maybe possibly giving the Packers a hard time if not upsetting them. Actually, people have kind of forgotten that the Packers almost went undefeated. Really, people tend to forget everything about the regular season once the playoffs start.

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

Predictions for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012

January 9, 2012 – 10:00 am

The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s selections are performed by a panel of 44 leading NFL media members including representatives of all 32 NFL teams, a representative of the Pro Football Writers of America, and 11 at-large writers.

The panel has selected a list of 15 finalists from the modern era, defined as playing all or part of their careers within the last 25 years. A player must have spent 5 years out of the league before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2006 season will be eligible for induction in 2012.

During Super Bowl Weekend, the panel will meet and narrow down the list of modern-era finalists down to five. Those five will be considered alongside two senior candidates, selected by a nine-member subpanel of the larger panel last August, for a total of seven. From this list, at least four and no more than seven people will be selected for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

My prediction for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012 is:

Curtis Martin
Andre Reed
Dermontti Dawson
Cortez Kennedy
Charles Haley
Jack Butler
Dick Stanfel

Hall of Fame Game: Steelers v. Jets

By Morgan Wick | Comments (1)

NFL Schedule: Wild Card Playoffs

January 3, 2012 – 10:02 am

One thing I get to do with these schedule posts is show off one of the big advantages of my Playoff Picture format. Sure, the teams are in the wrong order, but still. No Lineal Titles during the playoffs this year; the Chargers will take it into the offseason.

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD
WEST
48-8		 512-4 Sun 4:30 PM ET (PIT 13-21½)
Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
SOUTH
310-6		 69-7 Sat 4:30 PM ET (HOU 20¾-17¾)
Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
NORTH
212-4		 v. highest remaining
1/15 1PM ET
EAST
113-3		 v. lowest remaining
1/14 8PM ET
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
49-7		 510-6 Sun 1PM ET (NYG 22¼-25¼)
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
SOUTH
313-3		 610-6 Sat 8PM ET (NO 24¼-35¼)
Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
WEST
213-3		 v. highest remaining
1/14 4:30 PM ET
NORTH
115-1		 v. lowest remaining
1/15 4:30 PM ET

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in NFL Lineal Title | Comments (0)

NFL Schedule: Week 17

January 1, 2012 – 2:30 am
AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
WEST
48-7		 510-4 TEAMS AT 8-7 LISTED
IN REVERSE ORDER
OF LAST WEEK
(WOULD BE BROKEN BY
STRENGTH OF VICTORY)
8-7
SOUTH
310-5		 69-6
CLINCHED
NORTH
211-4		 8-7
11-4 8-7
EAST
112-3		 8-7
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
48-7		 510-5 NFC EAST LOSER
ELIMINATED;
LAST NFC PLAYOFF SPOT
TO BE DETERMINED
8-7
SOUTH
312-3		 69-6
CLINCHED
WEST
212-3		 8-7
CLINCHED
NORTH
114-1
CLINCHED

The NFL Schedule post is the first post of 2012, because it took so long for me to find out for sure what Compass was doing that I just gave up. With no SNF Flex Schedule Watch, the playoff picture moves back to the Schedule post; this is one point in favor of putting the playoff picture on this post full-time.

Week 17 never feels like a regular season week, especially with the double double-header, and the NFL has made it less so in recent years. On the other hand, there are a grand total of three games this weekend with no meaning whatsoever other than draft picks no one cares about because they aren’t the Luck pick, and I’ll show you what’s at stake in every one.

If all games go according to the point spread, your playoff teams are, according to ESPN’s Playoff Machine: AFC = byes: Patriots and Ravens; Titans @ Texans, Steelers @ Broncos; NFC = byes: Packers and Niners; Falcons @ Saints, Lions @ Giants.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#26(5-10) 18¾-26¾ #T15(7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis 139 92 Aaaaaaand the very first game is one of those meaningless ones as the former Dream Team looks to end on a high note.
#7(10-5) 22¾-18¾ #1(14-1) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 85 104 Well, the Lions have no chance to lock down the 5 against the Packers! …what’s that? They aren’t unbeaten and are resting everybody? Oh.
#14(8-7) 18¼-21¼ #23(5-10) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 136 Jets are fighting for a playoff spot, but the Dolphins are more dangerous than they look.
#22(6-9) 23¼-30¾ #2(12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 138 125 Yeah, the Saints are playing for a bye, but you know the Fox slate is lame when Buck and Co have the early spot on a doubleheader.
#4(12-3) 23¼-12¼ #32(7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 137 117 The Rams should make it easy for the Niners to lock down a first-round bye.
#21(7-8) 19½-21½ #T28(3-12) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 135 94 Another meaningless game as the Bears just try to finish at .500.
#17(8-7) 20½-18½ #9(10-5) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 106 128 The Texans have nothing to play for, but tell me the Titans won’t force a strength-of-victory tiebreaker for the last spot.
#31(2-13) 16¾-20¼ #27(4-11) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 113 112 It’s the final resolution of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes!
#25(6-9) 19¾-30¼ #3(12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 134 93 The Patriots can lock down the AFC’s #1 seed; anyone want to tell them they don’t deserve it?
#6(11-4) 20-13½ #T28(4-11) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 135 92 The Steelers need a win if they want the division crown and a first-round bye.
#24(6-9) 17-20 #13(8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 132 86 For all Tebow’s magic, he needs it to last one more game to get into the playoffs at all.
#5(11-4) 20½-18 #10(9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 134 94 The Ravens want to lock down the division, but Dalton and the Bengals can lock down a playoff spot.
#19(7-8) 19-22 #20(7-8) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 139 112 Our last meaningless game means a second NFC East team will finish at .500 for once!
#30(4-11) 17½-28 #8(9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 136 117 With only one playoff spot still to go in the NFC, this is what passes for a Fox feature game: Atlanta maybe playing for the 5.
#18(7-8) 22½-25½ #T15(8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 718 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 85 93 The Raiders could claim the division – but have an outside shot at the wild card if they don’t.
#12(8-7) 22-26 #11(8-7) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya 92 93 Final game of the regular season is the NFC East title game.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in NFL Lineal Title | Comments (0)

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Championship Week

December 30, 2011 – 3:32 pm

Worldwide Leaders got an early 15.8-point head start after the Thursday night game, with some production from Donald Brown but mostly 11 points from kicker Neil Rackers. Ray Rice, however, scored a big touchdown in the first half of his game with the Browns to give College Busters a slim lead. Jabar Gaffney picked up a receiving touchdown of his own to help College Busters pull away to a fairly comfortable lead heading into the late games, 62.7-40.8, as Worldwide Leaders failed to get double-digit production out of anybody. No one scored any touchdowns, and Mike Wallace was the most productive at 82 yards.

When Alex Smith proved to have a disappointing day, with no touchdowns and less than 200 all-purpose yards, the writing appeared to be on the wall for ESPN, cursing themselves for not shoring up their quarterback position, even with one more player still to play in the primetime games than College Busters. Matthew Stafford had a 378-yard, 3-touchdown day, good for nearly 28 points and giving YHOO a lead of over 56 points. Worldwide Leaders would need Jordy Nelson and Jimmy Graham to average 28 points and have Michael Turner basically be shut out, which would basically be a miracle. Nelson would do his part, scoring two touchdowns and 23.5 points, and Turner only scored 7.5 points, but Graham only put up 10.2 points of his own, well short of what was necessary.

Although College Busters snuck into the playoffs as a 4 seed, perhaps it’s fitting for the title to go to Yahoo, who was at the forefront of the fantasy phenomenon, rode fantasy to a position of being the most popular sports site, more so even than ESPN, and remains the most popular fantasy site of them all. A little poetic justice, perhaps.

Meanwhile, Ron Burgundy All-Stars pulled off another upset of Swimsuit Issues in the third-place game, thanks in large part to big days from Cam Newton and Victor Cruz, while SI once again got disappointing performaces, with Drew Brees the only touchdown-scoring starter. Commissioner’s Favorite got stung by the Tony Romo injury and Team Infograph rolled over them, while Inside Information and The SportsLine had the game of the weekend, with FLEA winning by less than two points with depth across the board (Michael Vick, Marshaun Lynch, and four others in double digits) over two or three great performances (Arian Foster and Brandon Marshall scored over twenty, while Matt Moore came close) and some good ones (Malcom Floyd and the Bengals defense scored over ten points, while Michael Bush scored 9.4). Finally, Indy Tea Party and Wisdom of Crowds had the two highest-scoring performances of the week to knock off Takedown Glaze and Politically Incorrect.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Fantasy Football | Comments (0)

The SNF Week 17 Situations

December 26, 2011 – 11:36 am

I’ve realized I’ve had reason to link to this post from last year, just to back up how narrow NBC’s choices for Week 17 really were. Hence, this post, to explain that with the NFL’s all-divisional lineup Week 17, there aren’t that many scenarios that produce a game guaranteed to remain a win-and-in, lose-and-out game after all the other games are played, which is what the NFL likes to plug in to the Sunday night timeslot. Namely, two teams in the same division competing for the same single playoff spot, either division or wild card, and playing each other.

Consider, for a second, two tied teams in the same division that don’t play each other. If the team with the tiebreaker wins, the team without it has nothing to play for. If you put the team with the tiebreaker in primetime, then if the team without the tiebreaker loses, the team with it also has nothing to play for. Putting the two teams a game apart just makes it worse. You need the two teams to be tied AND you need the tiebreaker situation if both teams win to be different from the tiebreaker situation if both teams lose. But the first three tiebreakers are: division games, common games, and conference games, and the NFL has made sure both teams are playing a game that’s all three. Remember, we needed both teams to have the same result, so all three tiebreakers will move in the same direction as well. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which you can’t count on.

The situation for the wild card, when competing against teams in other divisions, isn’t much better. The same constraints as in the first half of the last paragraph apply. The first tiebreaker (after head-to-head) is conference games, which both teams are playing. The next tiebreaker is common games, where an opening appears, since common games among teams in different divisions are rare, unless the teams’ divisions played each other. It’s conceivable for one team to play a common game while the other doesn’t… but then the best case scenario is that the two teams finish tied in the common games. And what’s the next tiebreaker? Why, strength of victory, of course.

However, the other reason I wanted to make this post was a post on Pro Football Talk suggesting Broncos-Chiefs might have been selected if the Chargers had lost. While I had said the result that needed to be different was the Chiefs beating the Raiders, and so far as I know that’s still correct, I realized there really isn’t anything going against that scenario. So that provides a loophole that broadens things out a little: if a team would lose a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division a game back and playing each other, or would win a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division also tied with them and playing each other, that team has an SNF-Week-17 ready game.

So Bengals-Jets two years ago might have happened, if two of the other wild card contenders were also playing each other. But I suspect the NFL would prefer that sort of game, where one team has nothing to play for, not happen – though it’s far better if it’s a team out of the playoffs, like the Chiefs, than one in the playoffs and resting up for it, like the Bengals two years ago.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in SNF Flex Scheduling Watch | Comments (0)

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 17 Picks

December 24, 2011 – 6:49 pm

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cowboys (8-7)-Giants (8-7), Broncos (8-7)-Chiefs (6-9).
  • Impact of Sunday and Monday Night Football: None, though announcement will be made before either game is over anyway.
  • Analysis: NBC breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Giants won (and then started hyperventilating again when Tony Romo got injured). The Cowboys and Giants will enter their Week 17 showdown tied for the division lead. The Broncos did get shockingly blown out by the lowly Bills (shades of the pre-Tebow era), and the Lions finished off the Chargers, but the Chiefs couldn’t do their part.
  • Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in SNF Flex Scheduling Watch | Comments (0)