Golden Bowl Simulated CFB Playoff

Time set for Golden Bowl Selection Show, for real this time, plus Random Internet Discovery

And it’s a doozy: 6 AM PT tomorrow morning. I was hoping I could get it in at 6 PM PT tonight, after one of my finals, but I got Distracted ™ and had no chance of getting set up before 6 anyway. I pretty much know two of the first-round matchups at this point, so I only need to finalize the remaining six games, and could work late into the night to do so. (The first stage of the selection process worked pretty much as I expected, with four at-larges being fairly obvious and the fifth being a head-scratcher of relative mediocrity. Ohio State fans may be somewhat disappointed with their seed though.) All eight games will be revealed, at once, at 6 AM PT.

UPDATE: Okay, forget that, it’s delayed again, an unexpected issue came up and I’m in no mood to write it anyway, no later than 2 PM PT.

Also, in place of having a webcomic post tonight, I’m giving you the Random Internet Discovery a day early, with more weird, wild, and wacky art than you can shake a stick at.

The timing of NBC’s Panthers-Giants-to-Sunday-Night announcement is curious. Was NBC and the NFL going to go with some other game if the Bucs had won on Monday night?

Who SHOULD be going to which bowls?


Based on my College Football Rankings, which I will put up… fairly soon. I hope. The Golden Bowl Selection Show is being delayed to 6 PM PT, maybe even until tomorrow, because my computer abruptly aborted, Excel wasn’t autorecovering the file I was doing my planning on for some reason, and that means I need to go all the way home to transfer back the post-championship-weekend RPI. I’ve selected one at large, have some idea of at least two others, and pretty much know who my top two and bottom three teams will be, if not in what order.

Teams in parenthesis reflect the probability that Boise State won’t be selected by the BCS; asterisks indicate at-large selections. Because of the “winning records before .500” rule, incidentally, Notre Dame will have to settle for one of the –AL spots, probably the Motor City if Boise State doesn’t go to the BCS. All times Eastern.

BOWL  Teams  My Picks  DATE/TIME/CHANNEL 
EagleBank Bowl  ACC #9  Maryland Dec. 20, 11 a.m. 
Navy  Navy ESPN 
New Mexico  Mountain West #4  Colorado State Dec. 20, 2:30 p.m. 
WAC #3  Nevada (Fresno State) ESPN 
St. Petersburg  Big East (#6?)  South Florida Dec. 20, 4:30 p.m. 
Conference USA #5  Southern Miss ESPN2 
Pioneer Las Vegas  Mountain West #1 TCU Dec. 20, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #4(/5)  California or Oregon State ESPN 
R+L Carriers New Orleans  C-USA #4 (Southern Miss rates higher but is 6-6) Rice Dec. 21, 8:15 p.m. 
Sun Belt #1  Troy ESPN 
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia  Mountain West #2  BYU Dec. 23, 8 p.m.
Pac-10 #7 (WAC #4 if none) Louisiana Tech (Nevada) ESPN 
Sheraton Hawaii  WAC #2 (gen. Hawaii)  Hawaii Dec. 24, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #6 (C-USA #7 if none) Northern Illinois* ESPN 
Motor City  MAC #1/2  Ball State Dec. 26, 8 p.m. 
Big Ten #7  Minnesota (Louisiana Tech*) ESPN 
Meineke Car Care  ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 6)  Clemson Dec. 27, 1 p.m. 
Big East #3  West Virginia ESPN
Champs Sports  ACC #4  Georgia Tech Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #(4/)5 Northwestern (Wisconsin) ESPN
Emerald  Pac-10 #(4/)5  Oregon State or California Dec. 27, 8 p.m. 
ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 7)  Miami (FL) ESPN
Independence  SEC #8 (or Sun Belt; Fla. Atlantic technically rates higher) Louisiana-Lafayette Dec. 28, 8:15 p.m. 
Big 12 #7  Central Michigan* ESPN
Papajohns.com  Big East (#5?)  Connecticut Dec. 29, 3 p.m. 
SEC #9 (Sun Belt if none) Arkansas State ESPN
Valero Alamo  Big Ten #4(/5) Mich. State (Northwestern) Dec. 29, 8 p.m. 
Big 12 #4/5 Nebraska ESPN
Roady’s Humanitarian  WAC #1 (gen. BSU)  Fresno State (Boise State) Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m. 
ACC #8  Wake Forest ESPN
Texas  Big 12 #8  Bowling Green* Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Conference USA #6  Memphis NFL Network
Pacific Life Holiday  Big 12 #3  Missouri Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #2  Oregon ESPN 
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces  Conference USA #3?  Houston Dec. 31, Noon 
Mountain West #3  Air Force ESPN 
Brut Sun  Pac-10 #3  Arizona Dec. 31, 2 p.m. 
Big 12 #5/Big East #2 Pittsburgh CBS 
Gaylord Hotels Music City  SEC #6/7 (Team’s Pref.)  Vanderbilt Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. 
ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 5; must pick Chmp. Gm. Loser if >8 wins) Boston College ESPN 
Insight  Big 12 #6  Kansas Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #6  Wisconsin (Minnesota) NFL Network 
Chick-fil-A  SEC #5  LSU Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. 
ACC #2  North Carolina ESPN 
Outback  SEC #3/4 (East)  South Carolina Jan. 1, 2009, 11 a.m. 
Big Ten #3  Iowa (Michigan State) ESPN 
Capital One  Big Ten #2  Ohio State (Iowa) Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m.
SEC #2  Georgia ABC 
Konica Minolta Gator  Big 12 #4/Big East #2  Oklahoma State Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m. 
ACC #3  Florida State CBS 
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi  BCS (Big Ten #1)  Penn State Jan. 1, 2009, 4:30 p.m.
BCS (Pac-10 #1)  USC ABC 
FedEx Orange  BCS  Cincinnati Jan. 1, 2009, 8:30 p.m. 
BCS (ACC #1)  Virginia Tech FOX 
AT&T Cotton  Big 12 #2  Texas Tech Jan. 2, 2009, 2 p.m. 
SEC #3/4 (West)  Mississippi FOX 
AutoZone Liberty  SEC #6/7 (Team’s Pref.)  Kentucky Jan. 2, 2009, 5 p.m. 
Conference USA #1  East Carolina ESPN 
Allstate Sugar  BCS  Utah (Ohio State) Jan. 2, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (SEC #1)  Boise State (Alabama) FOX 
International  Big East (#4?)  Rutgers Jan. 3, 2009, Noon 
MAC #3  Western Michigan ESPN2 
Tostitos Fiesta BCS  Alabama (Utah) Jan. 5, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (Big 12 #1)  Texas FOX 
GMAC  Conference USA #2  Tulsa Jan. 6, 2009, 8 p.m. 
MAC #1/2  Buffalo ESPN 
FedEx BCS National Championship Game  BCS #1  Florida Jan. 8, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS #2  Oklahoma FOX 

As promised a significantly longer time ago than I would have hoped…

Why should we put up with the reality presented to us by the BCS? A 16-team playoff with all conference champions can avoid most if not all of the pitfalls BCS backers claim would befall a playoff – especially if the media puts enough of an emphasis on seeding. I’ve heard people say we should top out a playoff at 8 teams and/or keep out the weaker conference champions (just the top 8 teams) in order to keep out teams that don’t deserve to play for a national championship. To which I reply: That’s kind of the point. By dangling the carrot of playing a scrub team that won a scrub conference in the first round, my system (and even an 8-team system with all BCS champions) motivates teams to keep playing even when they’re safely in the field. (It’s a more valid argument with the 8-team version, however, because lower-tier BCS conference champions are still good enough to surprise high seeds – especially overrated high seeds – and with only three rounds, can luck into a national championship, and with only two at-larges and no auto bid for good mid-major teams, they may be keeping out teams that deserve at least a shot.)

Last year, I in fact did conduct a 16-team Golden Bowl playoff, in much the way I imagine the NCAA would. Rather than blindly using the BCS rankings or even my own college football rankings, I used much the same criteria the NCAA uses for the basketball tournament: RPI, quality wins, road record, record entering the playoff, that sort of thing. The result was an odd field, to say the least (Virginia Tech the #1 seed?), caused by most BCS programs’ tendency to schedule nothing but scrub teams in the nonconference schedule. (The ACC, which also produced Boston College as an at-large, was artificially inflated in this system simply by having a high number of high-RPI teams.) Nonetheless, I don’t think I excluded anyone that was considered a plausible candidate for the real-life national championship, with Boston College and maybe Florida the only dodgy candidate in the top 12 or 13 seeds. (This year also produced three viable at-large teams – Texas, Texas Tech, the SEC title game loser – for a five-at-large field, which has me wondering if shrinkage might be feasible.)

However, I made a mistake in having all rounds determined entirely by voting. As I had even fewer readers than I had now, I got basically no votes. Result: I ended up making a lot of painstaking read-throughs of possibly meaningless statistics at Yahoo Sports, which burned me out so bad I never actually did declare the winner of the Golden Bowl Championship. I have more readers now, but most come for the webcomic posts, and even with voting I still have to come up with some concept of how the game would go, which practically means I don’t come up with one. And that doesn’t give you a vivid concept of how a playoff would actually go. It doesn’t make you as excited as a real playoff. No simulated version can, but last year’s model wasn’t even trying.

Instead, I’m using Whatifsports.com to simulate each game – assuming they will have 2008 rosters up by next weekend (by which I mean the weekend of the 14th). Here’s how last year’s Golden Bowl might have gone down.

Also last year, I held first round games on campus sites and subsequent rounds at various other sites. The semifinals went to the Sugar and Rose Bowls, and I deliberately seeded the Big 10 and Pac-10 champions to meet in the semifinals to preserve at least a chance of the traditional matchup. (I may have underseeded #11 USC a bit to make it work.) The quarterfinals went to the Cotton, Capital One, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls.

This year, to better preserve the role of the bowls and further increase the incentive to play for seeding, I’m moving the quarterfinals to campus sites as well, although I’m not convinced about that. The semifinals will still be at bowl sites, and for a while I was tempted to go with a system that would determine which bowls would be the semifinals by which teams made the semifinals. That would be a logistical nightmare and was only ever a sop to the Rose Bowl’s traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup.

The bowls would run alongside the tournament and any teams eliminated in any round would move on to play one more game later on. First-round losers would be dumped into the general bowl pool with teams that did not make the tournament. I’m actually thinking any money they would receive would be the same as any regular season game, with only the stakes increasing its value, thus further encouraging playing for seeding and encouraging more competitive first round games. I’d also delete a week from the season, though I obviously can’t do that here – and I actually like the Pac-10’s switch to a true round-robin format since the 12th game was added – to make it work properly and prevent the Heisman ceremony from going ridiculously late.

Quarterfinal losers would go to one of the BCS bowls: the Sugar, Rose, Cotton, and Orange bowls would rotate between being semifinal games and bowls for BCS losers. I’m leaning towards not going with the Capital One Bowl, despite having a higher payout right now, higher ratings, and a higher SEC tie-in than the Cotton Bowl, because of the Cotton’s now-bastardized tradition and the Cap One’s corporate name, not to mention its proximity to the Orange Bowl. (In fact, because of the weird SEC tie-in structure for the 3 and 4 spots, which bowl I pick has major implications for the SEC tie-in structure at the top.) The Fiesta Bowl I’m reserving for a third-place game, for semifinal losers, but it still rotates with the semifinal bowls for hosting the Golden Bowl.

My work ethic and other projects and obligations permitting, the Second Annual Golden Bowl Selection Show will begin this Sunday at 7 PM ET (4 PM PT). Watch Da Countdown! Next weekend, around the 13th, I’ll post the first round results, along with a revised minor bowl schedule; quarterfinal results will be posted the weekend before Christmas. This timing hopefully avoids finals week for schools which hold finals around this time, which I know is a concern. The semifinals are held around New Year’s Day, along with perfunctory quarterfinal-loser-bowl results, and the Golden Bowl is a week or two later, maybe even as late as MLK weekend or the gap between the NFL conference championships and Super Bowl. (The idea of football being a “one-semester sport” is kind of diluted when the current National Championship Game is held on January 8th. The “gap” may be preferable to avoid conflicting with, say, the Senior Bowl, with two weeks after New Year’s even more preferable.) Fiesta Bowl results would be available anywhere from a week to a day before the Golden Bowl itself.

I’m still kind of tweaking the whole format and I’m getting a MUCH later start on actually figuring out who’s in or out than I’d otherwise like. Still, I hope you have an opinion and you’re ready for the ride…

Hey, I wasn’t going to make the strip slip to the morning again.

I may be spending the night at a relative’s, but nonetheless I’m still posting the new college football rankings (long-overdue, as always) and updating the lineal titles!

Now if only I could take care of that nagging college football schedule…

Details about changes to my college football playoff should be coming by the time next week’s rankings come out, including a major change I’m considering compared to last year.

College Football Rankings after Week 10, plus musings on Barack Obama that’s not related to his win

Okay, I tried to write this as though we hadn’t already gone through two days and change of games already this week. Ball State has already played, which sucks as I had to carefully word its entry so as not to seem like an idiot while still plausibly coming from before its game. It didn’t help that I forgot my laptop’s power cord and had to waste two hours to go back home and get it. It would have saved me more than an hour and a half and I could have had the rankings up much earlier, and would be less under the gun for the schedule. Sadly, the SNF Flex Scheduling Watch not only may have to wait until Friday, but take into account Thursday night results as well.

Did you hear? Barack Obama supports a college football playoff! He wants to “get…the top eight teams right at the end. You got a playoff. Decide on a national champion.” Obviously this rolls right into my wheelhouse, and it gives me a chance to survey the landscape for my college football playoff proposal.

(How about McCain and his call to root out steroids? When you think about it, a playoff is a bit frivolous for Obama to be advocating; McCain talked about a more serious issue that can be life or death. It’s something that actually would be plausible for him to do as president, rather than get ridiculed by everyone outside sports, if Obama even had the power to do it at all. I read one comment that said “McCain wants make [sic] things back to the way they used to be. Obama is looking fix [sic] a broken system by making change.” Um… are you saying you think the proliferation of steroids is just “the way things are” now?)

Barack. I love ya. I voted for ya. I completely agree on the need for a playoff. But you’re not ambitious enough, man!

This happens every year at this time: wannabe playoff pushers ruin the good name of the playoff idea by proposing playoff schemes that’s whatever would be the ideal scheme for that particular year with a minimum of teams (to Protect the Sanctity of the Regular Season(tm)). Last year the big proposal was an eight-team playoff with automatic bids for the BCS conference champions. At least one place proposed also including an automatic bid for the best non-BCS conference team, leaving only one at-large. That would have worked last year, when there were only one or two non-conference champions with a claim at the BCS (Kansas and Georgia) and an undefeated non-BCS conference team (Hawaii).

It would be an unmitigated disaster this year. The Big 12 South is a clusterbleep, and leaving an odd team out between Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would be rather inherently unfair, especially if everyone in that division has at least two losses. That would get amplified if you threw in the SEC Title Game loser or kept the non-BCS automatic qualifier. And if you junked the latter, what happens to what could still be as many as three undefeated non-BCS conference teams? And what about USC, which would get screwed if Oregon State wins out? And all this to keep the conference champions of the crummy ACC and Big East (highest-ranked teams in the BCS #19 and #25 respectively, and not much higher in my rankings)?

So now the big proposal is throwing in just the top eight teams regardless of conference affiliations, which might be unfair to leagues with a lot of parity, not to mention non-BCS schools that never really get that high. As Jay Mariotti said recently on Around the Horn (paraphrased), “this would be a good year for a playoff because we have eight championship-caliber teams”. Am I the only one who thinks that would make an eight-team playoff a bad idea? If the top eight teams are bunched up at the top, they have basically zero motivation to play for seeding, only to get into the tournament! It’s the same no matter where they’re seeded or who they play, so why bother?

As it turns out, at least this year, more really is more.

The 16-team system that has been gaining a lot of traction – all 11 conference champions, plus 5 at larges – is one system that would have worked last year and this year. Five at-larges was more than enough for everybody; Kansas and Georgia were both rewarded for their strong seasons with at-large berths in my simulated playoffs. (Five may in fact have been too many, as Florida and Boston College both got in, but as both were seeded ahead of teams that were seriously considered for the real-life title game it may have been deserved.) Missouri and West Virginia, after last-day upsets, were forced to go on the road in the first round against real-life championship contenders (but at least Missouri got in after their two losses both came to Oklahoma). 3-loss Virginia Tech was my 1 seed on the basis of their schedule; Arizona State, Cincinnati, and Texas had 3 losses but didn’t get in at all. (And remember, only two teams – Kansas and Hawaii – had one loss or fewer.)

This year? I’d like to point any doubters to my case for a playoff – my system specifically – from the leadup to last year’s simulation.

Why, the 8-team proponents say, should I award spots in the tournament to every mid-major conference champion? No way are they better than potential at-large teams that would make for a true top 16. But this is actually a strength. Sure, the MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt champions might not be real threats to win the national championship. But you can’t tell me it’s not incredibly valuable to pick up a top 3 seed and, basically, a free pass to the second round. The four seed, on the other hand, might be at risk of an upset against one of the better mid-major champions, or if it’s a really strong year for mid-majors, an at-large. The five and six seeds get stuck with either the lower-rated at-larges or the “BCS Buster” du jour.

There’s still a lot for the eight top teams to play for:

  • “The MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt champions might not be real threats to win the national championship”? Not anymore! Before last week the Sun Belt was the only non-BCS conference without an undefeated team! Even now facing any conference champion from any conference that’s not the Sun Belt brings the very real possibility of an upset of Appalachian State-esque proportions! Suddenly there’s a huge incentive for one of the top teams to strive for a 1 seed; anything less would be risking an upset, but with a 1 seed you can rest your starters and coast. (If Conference USA is not a factor anymore, we can extend that privlege to the 2 seed, releasing some pressure to be #1, but that’s the same as the BCS we have now anyway.) If we went by the BCS standings a BCS conference champion could be seeded as low as 14, meaning even a 3 seed might have to contend with a BCS team!
  • After getting someone to pound on in the first round, the 1 seed will be tanned, rested and ready for the next round. You want to avoid the 8 seed so you’re not risking having to face a far more rested team in the second round! If we extend the above privlege to the 2 seed, the 7 seed becomes off-limits as well!
  • Not to mention, if the BCS standings are any indication, if you sink too close to the 8 you risk the Mountain West champion (maybe even Boise State) bumping you down a spot – possibly all the way to 9 and a first-round road game! If we went by the BCS standings the top 11 teams would all get in right now (assuming Oregon State loses), meaning a seed as high as 6 puts you up against a legit national championship contender!
  • Depending on how we set up the details, we haven’t even mentioned the importance of getting a seed of 4 or higher for a second-round home game!

The Big 12’s Big 4 would all be jockeying for position, knowing they could get a Troy in the first round and a second-round home game, or they could get a Ball State or North Carolina or West Virginia or even an Ohio State or Oregon State, with a second-round road game against the first type of team looming. Oklahoma State doesn’t want people saying they could get a 9 seed; they want to knock off Texas Tech this weekend and get a game in front of their home fans, while Texas Tech doesn’t want to give the pollsters or committee an excuse to dump them from the top few seeds to the middle or even bottom few seeds, taking them from a relatively easy first round opponent to a team that could win it all if you don’t handle them now.

There’s a possibility that an Alabama-Florida SEC title game would be a coastfest for both teams under a playoff, but with the winner almost guaranteed a top three seed and the loser probably condemned to a 5 or worse (6 or worse for Florida), there’s still quite a bit to play for. Penn State doesn’t want to lose another game, because they’re probably getting a top three seed right now. Sure, it might be cold comfort to have a small number next to your name if you’re playing Tulsa or West Virginia, but look on the bright side: they wouldn’t be sinking so low as to be staring at Ohio State, Ball State, or even Boise State, not to mention the possible second-round home game.

It’s not perfect. Maybe I could reduce the field a little. But it provides meaningful incentives to increase your standing within the playoff, which is more than can be said for most smaller systems. I guess this is one place where I ever-so-slightly disagree with the new President-Elect of the United States. (Well, aside from some places in my platform examination.)

To learn more about my system and the criteria for my simulation of it later, click here.

Why I haven’t put up the results of the Golden Bowl (and a few other news and notes)

Some of you may have noticed that I haven’t posted the results of the first Golden Bowl between LSU and USC, and it’s for the same reason I decided to drop the SuperPower Rankings. The Golden Bowl tournament turned out to be a lot less fun than I had hoped.

For almost every game, I had to pore over the numbers and probably reached a lot of wrong conclusions. I found myself breathing sighs of relief when the two people who voted on the second and third rounds agreed. It wasn’t as time consuming as the SuperPower Rankings but it left me with a sense of dread entering each round.

I had been planning on having a grandiose, John-Facenda-esque description of the Golden Bowl, but I barely managed to work up the knowledge or desire to write any description at all throughout the tournament. I have a feeling I would have fallen well short. Not only is a college football playoff far from an original idea, but others are doing much of what I intended to do a lot better than I would have.

That said, unlike the SuperPower Rankings, I’m still doing this next year. I like the Golden Bowl name, I’m hoping Da Blog grows enough in the next year that I won’t have to break ties at all, and I feel that a lot of simulated playoffs or proposed brackets blindly follow the BCS standings. I’ve heard it argued that a plus-one system would have ignored Georgia or USC in favor of Virginia Tech or Oklahoma; what that ignores is that a plus one would have forced the pollsters to pay more attention to the top four the way they pay attention to the top two now, which likely means #5 Georgia would have gotten past V-Tech or the Sooners, since they arguably had a stronger case for a national title shot than either. (Yes, I know V-Tech was my number 1 seed.) A true simulated playoffs that follows close to what the reality probably would be should follow the NCAA guidelines.

So, this ends the brief spurt of productivity from Da Blog from football. Sure, we’re a few steps away from the Super Bowl – the Patriots just blew past their 17th team, as reflected on the site – but that’s a fairly small part of what we do around here.

No, don’t run away! Come back! I know a lot of you are here for the football, so what can I do to get you to stick around?

Well, let’s start with my 100 Greatest Movies Project, which has been described in the past on the off chance you came here before it was cool. If you happen to be a fan of the movies, and not just the standard popcorn fare but all the classics from Hollywood’s golden age to the present day, I could use you to explain to the masses why they better recognize. If you want to write tributes and descriptions for Hollywood’s greatest films, let me know in the comments or at mwmailsea at yahoo dot com.

But I have another plan to induce the teeming masses to come here. And stay here. I have plans for a new regular feature that I have high hopes for, one that could potentially attract a much larger audience than what I’ve achieved so far. One that could start as soon as tonight.
What is it? Well, let’s just say you can expect to see a lot of this sometime soon:

The 2008 Golden Bowl – Setup

Once again, I had one easy selection and one in which I had to make the tiebreaker:

#5 LSU v. #11 USC
Once again, what home field gave to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl, it took away in the Rose Bowl. A ten-point win for USC gives the Men of Troy a game… has it really been five years in the making? Yes, it’s exactly the same national championship game we thought we’d get at the start of the season, but how we got here is another matter entirely.

Simply put, this is a battle between the solid LSU offense, keyed by a strong running attack… and one of the toughest defenses in the country.

But LSU is no slouch of a defense. In total yards allowed, it’s third and USC is second. If the old adage – “defense wins championships” – is true, this game will certainly prove it. And perhaps the only reason LSU trails USC is because LSU had to come out of the SEC… not to mention its high-powered offense… and the game, like the real national championship game, is in New Orleans…

Polls close 8 PM PST on Monday.

Golden Bowl Tournament Semifinals

I only had to make decisions on two races, and only then because the vote (two for each match) split.

#5 LSU v. #8 Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
The mass of red in the stands of the Cotton Bowl turn the tide when a late comeback attempt by the Hokies ends just short of the first-down marker on fourth down. But what relative home field giveth, it can also taketh away. The #3 and #12 offenses in the country promise to light up the scoreboard – but not if the #9 and #20 defenses (the latter of which gives up the third-fewest yards per game) have anything to say about it. LSU relies on its #12 rushing attack, but it will have to contend with the #11 run defense of the Sooners. Oklahoma is more balanced, with a #18 rushing game and #26 passing game, but LSU is #18 and #17 at stopping the run and pass, respectively. It’s like they’re set up to counter each other!

#2 Georgia v. #11 USC (Rose Bowl)
Ohio State gets a surprise from a Georgia team that comes ready to match them on defense, as the Buckeye offense is exposed in a tight 7-6 Georgia victory that ends on an interception by the Bulldog defense snuffing a late comeback attempt. Things don’t get any easier for the Bulldogs, as they now have to travel far from home to play a team that some say should be seeded a lot higher. USC’s defense is not much worse than Ohio State’s – fourth in points, second in total yardage, eighth in passing defense, fourth in run defense – but it also does not have that great an offense, and if Georgia can handle Ohio State they can handle USC. As with Ohio State, USC’s offensive strength comes on the run.

All polls expire New Year’s Day at 5pm PT.

Golden Bowl Tournament Quarterfinals

At least I got any votes at all, but I got a grand total of two total votes on the poll, so I had to make decisions on the other six matchups myself.

#1 Virginia Tech v. #8 Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
In a tight contest, Oklahoma survives by the seat of their pants after stalling a late comeback attempt by the Mountaineers. Now it comes down to a battle between #8 and #11 in rushing defense. The marquee matchup to watch is when the Sooners have the ball, as the #3 offense goes against the #2 defense in points put up.

#2 Georgia v. #7 Ohio State (Capital One Bowl)
The Buckeyes and Tigers have a tight, low-scoring classic, as Missouri manages to contain the Buckeye running game enough to keep them in it. The Buckeyes just barely hang on for the 10-7 victory. Being a matchup between two of the most storied college football teams in the country, this game sells itself, but Georgia will now learn in a hurry just how difficult it can be to get past one of the strongest defenses in the country. Georgia does have a fairly stout defense of its own, though, and on offense, both teams’ strength lie in their respective running games. That means the matchup will focus on Chris Wells v. Knowshon Moreno.

#3 Kansas v. #11 USC (Fiesta Bowl)
Todd Reesing has a career day against the Knights of UCF and gives Kansas the trip to the second round they need. Meanwhile, USC puts up points in bunches and pulls off a 28-17 victory over the Eagles on the road. Now they play much closer to home against the Jayhawks, in another game that will rely much more on the arm of John David Booty than on the running game. Reesing and the #14 passing attack will have their hands full with USC’s #8 passing defense. Clearly, the Jayhawks aren’t playing cupcakes anymore!

#5 LSU v. #13 BYU (Orange Bowl)
A last-second field goal gives LSU a 44-42 win over the Warriors, but Florida is not so lucky. I probably should have mentioned this at the Selection Show, but we’re assuming that all players’ injury situations are the way they would be as of the close of voting, not at full strength. Seeing Tim Tebow’s arm in a cast at the Heisman presentation, I realized he would have been lucky to play at all. Without Tebow, the Gators go down in defeat, and BYU doesn’t have to leave the state for its next game. LSU is #12 in rushing offense and #12 in points put up, but BYU is #13 in points allowed, #10 in total yards allowed, and #7 in rushing yards allowed. BYU is #13 in passing offense and #15 in total yardage, but LSU is #3 in yards allowed and #16 in passing yardage, not to mention #18 in rushing yards allowed. It’s a veritable stat-a-palooza!

All polls expire in TWO weeks at 5 pm PT.

2007 Golden Bowl Tournament Selection Show

Welcome to the first annual Selection Show for the simulated Golden Bowl Tournament – your chance to see what a playoff would be like. If you want a playoff in college football, it’ll probably take the form here. Here are the parameters of the tournament:

  • 11 teams are selected from the Conference Champions of all teams
  • 5 more teams are selected from an at-large pool consisting of all other teams
  • First round games on campus sites; subsequent rounds at bowl sites based on traditional affiliations and regional interest

Soon after I announce each octofinal pairing, the polls will open so you can vote to determine who moves on. The conference champions with auto bids are Virginia Tech, LSU, Ohio State, West Virginia, Oklahoma, BYU, USC, Hawaii, Central Florida, Central Michigan, and Florida Atlantic. Missouri, Georgia, Florida, Boston College, and Kansas have been selected as at-large teams.

Due to delays (damn you, Washington-Hawaii!) I’m not exactly done with all the seeding and pairing, so this will be a fairly slow process. But all in all, good luck to all our teams, especially our Number 1 seed, Virginia Tech.

Octofinal matchups:

#16 Central Michigan (MAC champion) v. #1 Virginia Tech (ACC champion)
I mentioned in an earlier post that the reason including ALL champions is actually a strength of my system is that it encourages the top teams to keep fighting for the tippy-top seeds. But both the 1 and 2 seeds (#2 will face the Sun Belt champ) are going to face tough opponents. Central Michigan’s only loss in-conference came to Eastern Michigan, and the Chippewas managed to knock off what was probably a better Ball State team. The Hokies’ two main advantages are home field and a superb defense.

#15 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt champion) v. #2 Georgia (at-large)
Florida Atlantic, only a couple years removed from entering I-A, defeated a solid, 3-loss Troy team, one that managed to knock off Oklahoma State earlier in the year, on the road to win the Sun Belt title. Don’t count out their chances to mount a similar upset against a team so many people think is on fire. Look for a big marquee match-up between the Owls’ hot passing attack and the Bulldogs’ stouch defense in this battle of Southern teams.

#14 Central Florida (Conference USA champion) v. #3 Kansas (at-large)
The question here is simple: Can Kevin Smith, the nation’s leading running back whose lack of accolades UCF fans have been decrying, crack Kansas’ #6 rushing defense and prove he deserves every accolade denied him? Already the storylines are writing themselves!

#13 BYU (Mountain West champion) v. #4 Florida (at-large)
Yes, Tigers fans, I know you beat Florida, but at home. Fortunately, the bracket lays out for the two of you to decide it on a neutral site as soon as the quarterfinals. And while LSU gets a significant challenge in Round 1, rest assured that Florida will get a battle from BYU, the #7 rushing and #10 overall yardage defense in the country, as well. Since Florida lacks a rushing attack beyond Tim Tebow, expect this to be a pass-happy game. With Florida itself being #10 in rushing defense, BYU will probably do the same, and they are #13 in passing offense. Trust me, this could be fun to watch, and BYU has a legit chance to pull one out in the Swamp.

Quarterfinal sites: 1/16/8/9 to Cotton Bowl; 2/15/7/10 to Capital One Bowl; 3/14/6/11 to Fiesta Bowl; 4/13/5/12 to Orange Bowl.

#12 Hawaii (WAC champion) v. #5 LSU (SEC champion)
Congratulations, Hawaii, on your undefeated season! Your reward: A date, in the very first round, with one of the teams in the real-life national championship game. Before you pout, mid-major fans, know that I could have very easily rated Hawaii ahead of USC, but didn’t mainly to maintain the Big 10-Pac-10 champions’ matchup occuring in the semifinal, which I would assign to the Rose Bowl. LSU’s got a good defense, but it could have its hands full with the up-and-down, high-scoring offense of Colt Brennan and Hawaii. LSU will have to rely on its own powerful offense to crack the Warriors’ armor.

#11 USC (Pac-10 champion) v. #6 Boston College (at-large)
Sorry, Trojans, try beating some good teams other than Arizona State and not losing to Stanford. This is another game that will come down to the passing attack: Boston College has the top rushing defense in the country (a possible challenge for USC rushing prodigy Joe McKnight) and USC is #4. That means it comes down to which QB can outplay the other: Matt Ryan or John David Booty. Quick warning to Ryan: SC is good on defense no matter what you do. It’ll be interesting to see if USC can still beat teams the way they’re used to when their playing in the cold, frigid Northeast.

This means that the #2 seed’s half of the bracket will play in the Rose Bowl, and #1’s half will play in the Sugar Bowl, for the semifinals.

#10 Missouri (at-large) v. #7 Ohio State (Big 10 champion)
Can Chase Daniel beat Ohio State’s top-ranked passing defense and 4th-ranked rushing defense in the Horseshoe? If anyone can, it’s the #6 passing offense of the Tigers. Also, this is one of the shorter gaps between two teams in the octofinals in terms of geographic distance, so don’t be surprised to find some Missouri gold littering the stands. You want to tell me you wouldn’t love to see this in a playoff format?

#9 West Virginia (Big East champion) v. #8 Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)
Okay, so this is the same as the real-life Fiesta Bowl. The difference is that the Mountaineers will have to go to Oklahoma to play the game. Oklahoma will still have an edge in the real-life game because that’ll be even further from Morgantown. The #11 Sooner rushing defense will try to contain the #4 rushing offense keyed by Pat White and Steve Slaton. Meanwhile, the #4 defense by overall yardage will try to contain the #3 offense by points put up. Will the Big East prove it deserves to be considered a top-caliber conference when its champion knocks off the champion of the Big 12? (Oh, how important it is to keep winning. West Virginia likely would have not only hosted a game, but landed a seed as high as fourth, if they had just taken care of Pittsburgh.)

All polls close next Sunday at 5 PM PST. Track the bracket here.