Category Archives: Golden Bowl Simulated CFB Playoff

2008 Golden Bowl Tournament: Minor Bowls (through end of 2008)

December 31, 2008 – 2:00 pm

Bowls affected by the Golden Bowl Playoffs as listed here only. If I may be allowed to rant for a bit, while I was able to calculate these games I’m astounded by the idea that people are ONLY interested in weather of the future. I was able to find the weather from SportsLine’s (aka CBS Sports) previews, but as SportsLine doesn’t link to its previews I only found out about it by a fluke, and as it’s on a PREVIEW and not on the box score I don’t know exactly how much precipitation there was or if there was any, only what the chance of any was before the game. It’s not like the weather is an important aspect of understanding the game; if we need to know it before the game, why not after? I mean, if it’s good enough for Whatifsports, why not real sports sites? And are we really more able to tell whether there will be rain than how much there will be, or if that’s not the case, are we really more interested? Anyway, onwards and upwards, with wild guesses taken on the rain:

EagleBank Bowl: Miami (FL) 27, Navy 23
Navy managed to keep a closer game of it than in the real game against an arguably better opponent, but couldn’t get the job done in the end.

New Mexico Bowl: BYU 62, Fresno State 28
The Bulldogs lost the real game to a 6-6 Mountain West team. Imagine them facing an opponent that was actually ranked.

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah 58, Arizona 20
BYU underestimated the Wildcats in the real game. Utah’s too good to make that mistake.

Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan 6, Wisconsin 42
Um… should we be glad the Golden Bowl isn’t real and we didn’t actually get these atrocious bowl matchups?

Emerald Bowl: California 42, Clemson 17
It’s the Jahvid Best show! And I didn’t even set Cal as a home team!

Independence Bowl: Kentucky 0, Wake Forest 16
Now here, we didn’t get a game between two sucky minor conference teams. Too bad it’s a freakin’ shutout!

Papajohns.com Bowl: Rutgers 64, Florida Atlantic 38
You notice a lot of these bowls look like early-season “guarantee” games. Though to be fair, Rutgers didn’t exactly set the world on fire this year, and Florida Atlantic won its “real-life” bowl. And you notice the Owls put up a lot of points on the board on their own part.

Texas Bowl: NC State 59, Rice 49
Now here’s a game that got improved by the Golden Bowl: Rice gets a BCS opponent! That alone makes it worth watching! And the game was more competitive than the real thing, as Chase Clement kept the Owls in it almost to the end.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: South Carolina 17, Virginia Tech 24
The team that actually was in the Golden Bowl tournament sneaks out of the Georgia Dome with a victory, despite a valiant comeback attempt by Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks.

In the new year I bring the rest of the minor bowls, as well as the non-semifinal BCS bowls. Watch the Rose Bowl knowing it’s more than a meaningless what-if game, but actually a national semifinal in the Golden Bowl tournament, and I’ll have the other semifinal on Friday.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Classic Da Blog | Comments (0)

2008 Golden Bowl Tournament Quarterfinals

December 21, 2008 – 10:00 pm

#9 USC v. #1 Oklahoma
The game turned out to be surprisingly boring… aside from the team that was winning.

It didn’t look to be that way at first. Mark Sanchez’s second pass attempt was picked off – but the Trojan defense forced its second straight three-and-out. The next time the Trojans got the ball, Joe McKnight broke off a 40-yard touchdown run. Then Oklahoma coughed up the ball on a fumble and USC went on another 53-yard drive for another touchdown, and the Sooner crowd was silent the rest of the way. Sanchez kept the scoring going with a long pass to Patrick Turner that he managed to take in for a score early in the second. Oklahoma went into the half without having tallied a single first down and down 28-0.

The Sooners finally picked up a first down midway through the third… only to see their next punt be taken to the house. The Sooners also got on the board with a 57-yard rushing touchdown on the first play from scrimmage after the ensuing kickoff, but by that point they were already down 35-7 and no one thought any sort of miracle comeback was anything near possible – a near 5-minute touchdown scoring drive taking up the rest of the third quarter, with the touchdown itself coming in the fourth, made sure of that. The stands were sparse for much of the second half and virtually empty for most of the fourth, as college football pundits and Sooner fans alike found themselves scratching their heads. Yes, Pete Carroll had undoubtedly motivated his squad with the indignity of having to play in the freezing snow of Salt Lake City in the first round when they all knew they had deserved a first-round home game. Most of the questions involved the Sooners: What had happened that left them vulnerable to freaking Troy, and then left them as little more than the butt for another set of Trojans to whoop, in a replay of the 2004 Orange Bowl? And how had Joe McKnight gone completely ignored in the Heisman conversation this season?
Final score: USC 55, Oklahoma 14

#7 Texas Tech v. #2 Florida
From the opening bell, it was clear this was not going to be Texas Tech’s day. That became apparent when Jeffery Demps broke open a 51-yard run on the first play from scrimmage. Florida went on to score later in the drive, then picked up a field goal on the next one. The Red Raiders proceeded to pick up their first first down, but then Graham Harrell threw one of his two picks and that resulted in a touchdown-scoring drive. Texas Tech finally picked up a touchdown on a drive that spanned into the second quarter, but the extra point was blocked, and a good kickoff return allowed Florida to drive to another field goal.

The Red Raiders defense finally stopped Florida from scoring with a three-and-out, only for Harrell to throw INT #2, this time returned all 48 yards for the touchdown by Joe Haden. Florida went into the half up 30-6 and the Red Raiders never scored again. Tim Tebow didn’t look like a running quarterback – he ran 17 times for only 11 yards – but Demps and Chris Rainey picked up the slack, and while Tebow went only 5-8 passing, it was for 53 yards.
Final score: Texas Tech 6, Florida 40 (I’m assuming Florida keeps running with less than 2 minutes to play, picks up the first down, doesn’t need to kick a field goal, and doesn’t try to punch it in with goal to go)

#6 Cincinnati v. #3 Texas
In by far the greatest game of the Golden Bowl tournament so far, Cincinnati proved they deserved their seed that so many called unusually high. So impressive were they that Dominick Goodman, who caught 7 passes for 153 yards, was considered the player of the game.

Why was that impressive, besides that it was a wide receiver? Read on.

An early Texas drive that looked like the landslide many pundits had predicted was cut short when Colt McCoy, after driving his team to the Bearcat 30, threw the ball into the hands of Brandon Underwood. Tony Pike then went 4-for-4, every throw for a first down, culminating with Goodman making a running catch and winning a footrace for the endzone, a 30-yard play that served as a notice to the Longhorns. Cincinnati 7: Texas 0.

Although Texas went three-and-out, anyone who dismissed that drive as a fluke probably seemed vindicated when Pike threw an interception of his own, and after Texas went three-and-out again, promptly threw another interception on his very next play, this one taken back to the end zone by Earl Thomas for the game-tying score. After that, the Bearcats kept the ball on the ground, throwing the ball only three times on the ensuing drive on the way to a field goal to retake the lead. The Longhorns promptly struck back, as McCoy drove them 46 yards before Chris Ogbonnaya picked up a 24-yard touchdown run on a draw. Cincinnati doesn’t pick up a first down for the rest of the half, and the Longhorns add a field goal of their own before the half. The pundits’ halftime analysis: the Longhorns started slow, but they will now play much more like they played in the second quarter and will put the game away.

Not so fast.

Anyone thinking the Bearcats would go down that easy were shut up when John Goebel ticked off a 48-yard run all the way to the 2, setting up a subsequent touchdown run to re-tie the game. Cincinnati’s next possession ended in a three-and-out and the ensuing punt gave the Longhorns good enough field position to re-take the lead, but Pike managed to lead the Bearcats to the endzone himself on the very next drive. The Bearcats were not going away, and they would stay in it all the way to the end.

After forcing Texas to punt, the Bearcats got the ball back on their own 17 for their first drive of the fourth quarter, and after two plays, picked up a first down when the Longhorns were flagged for encroachment – only to be set further back by a holding flag the next play. Thanks mostly to a second-down pass to Goodman, the Bearcats still picked up the first down, then crossed midfield on a 13-yard pass to Ben Guidugli. Another second-down pass picked up another first down before the Bearcats stalled, only gaining two yards on each of the first two downs before Isaiah Pead, on one of only two rushes of the day (both for losses), got nailed for a five-yard loss and forced a punt. On the clock, the quarter was already half over, and the score remained 24-24.

McCoy proceeded to break the hearts of the Bearcat faithful by running for 17 yards on second down to the Longhorn 35, then handed it off to Cody Johnson who broke open for a 64-yard run, just barely being stopped short of the end zone. After two incomplete passes and a run got stopped, Mack Brown decided to roll the dice by going for it on fourth down. Had it failed, it could have ended up endlessly questioned – but it worked, and the Longhorns retook the lead. But before the Bearcat faithful could beat themselves up for very long, Pike threw a screen to Goodman, who proceeded to make a Heisman-like dash for 65 yards down to the 12, and Jacob Ramsey punched it in the rest of the distance. Cincinnati 31, Texas 31, 4:28 to play. Texas returns the kickoff to their own 30. Play sequence: Incomplete, 1-yard pass, incomplete, punt. Cincinnati gets the ball back on their own 38, 3:33 to play, chance to win the game and shock the nation by shutting the Big 12 out of the semifinals.

First play: Interception.

After an illegal motion flag against Texas, Ogbonnaya promptly breaks open a 46-yard run down to the 10. Two Foswhitt Whitaker runs later, McCoy hits Quan Cosby in the endzone. Cincinnati 31, Texas 38, 1:47 to play, Tony Pike – after a fantastic game – needing to redeem himself and not become the scapegoat.

Cincinnati gets the ball back on the 23. First play very familiar: Pike to Goodman, out of bounds, gain of 8, second down Ramsey gets a four-yard run for the first down. Bearcats call timeout, 1:32 remaining. Goebel runs east-and-west and manages to pick up a yard before going out of bounds. Pike throws… batted down. Pike completes it this time to Marcus Barnett, but he gets nailed immediately… can’t go out of bounds. Clock stops for the measurement and first down, but they have to get back to the line. Clock ticks down to 55 seconds. They run a draw to Ramsey… ends up out of bounds for another 1-yard gain. 51 seconds. Pike throws to the sideline to Charley Howard. Out of bounds, six-yard gain, 45 seconds left, they’re in Longhorn territory now. Third and 3. Pike throws it downfield to Barnett… just out of his reach. Fourth down, three to go. 38 seconds. This time the first down is most important. Pike pitches it right into the hands of Goebel.

Two yards.

Texas avoids an unmitigated disaster for the Big 12 and becomes the only Big 12 team still playing for a national championship. Cincinnati will have to settle for a trip to the Orange Bowl at least a week too early. Tony Pike and Brian Kelly will have that interception and final drive replaying in their nightmares for years. Bearcats fans are merely left to shake their heads and wonder what might have been. Dominick Goodman, though, gains a new level of respect around the country from people who might not have been paying attention to the Big East.
Final score: Cincinnati 31, Texas 38

#5 Penn State v. #4 Alabama
No sooner did the Cincinnati Bearcats get done scaring the Texas Longhorns than two of college football’s most storied teams managed to top it, in a game that proved to be surprisingly high-scoring.

Daryll Clark threw for three first downs on Penn State’s second drive of the game, and with the ball on the 25, Evan Royster – on his way to an amazing two-hundred-yard day – picked up a fourth on a 16-yard run, then proceeded to pound ahead another eight for the touchdown, the first sign that Alabama’s defense wasn’t in proper working order. Though Alabama had picked up the first first down of the game, the first sign that Penn State’s defense wasn’t working either might have been dismissed as a fluke: Glen Coffee pounding through it for 51 yards on Alabama’s second play from scrimmage on the ensuing drive, only getting stopped at the three, setting up Roy Upchurch for the equalizer.

After three more runs by Royster put the Nittany Lions in Alabama territory, the Tide defense seemed to bear down and get the stop, helped in no small part by a delay of game penalty, and a long punt return to the Lion 29 set up an 18-yard run by Mark Ingram and an 11-yard touchdown by Coffee, and Alabama took the lead heading into the second quarter.

Both defenses traded stops, though both teams penetrated their opponent’s territory, but then the Nittany Lions suggested that the Tide defense still wasn’t quite working the way it should have. Clark was the star of this drive, with three decent-sized completions early before, on 2nd and 11 from the 21, handing the ball off to Royster on a draw and setting up the Lions on the 2. Derrick Williams pounded it in from there to re-tie the game. Alabama struck back, with the help of another big run by Coffee and a slightly shorter one from Upchurch. The drive stalled after a false-start flag, but Kevin Kelly still made a 47-yard field goal – his only attempt of the game – to retake the lead. Penn State went three-and-out, a Tide first down was rendered moot by holding on the next play, and Penn State got the ball back with 17 seconds left and couldn’t do anything before the half. The pundits’ consensus: If the Tide’s defense could get more consistent they can put away the Nittany Lions during the second half and turn what’s been a close game so far into a laugher, because the Lions can’t stop Glen Coffee.

But the Tide’s defense doesn’t get more consistent. Instead the Nittany Lions, namely Royster, have a fantastic third quarter. After a three-and-out, they get help from the special teams with a punt return into Tide territory, and Royster tags on a 30-yard touchdown run. Penn State’s next drive is a three-and-out but the punt pins the Tide inside the 20, but Upchurch renders that irrelevant by leaving the defense in his wake for an 87-yard touchdown run – the only Alabama drive of the quarter that isn’t a three-and-out. Royster immediately takes the challenge and takes it 79 yards for a touchdown of his own on Penn State’s first play from scrimmage. The next time Penn State gets the ball, Clark takes over and leads the team on a five-minute drive that only gets stopped on fourth and goal from the 4. Penn State 31, Alabama 24.

The Tide’s defense buckles down in the fourth quarter, as both teams trade three-and-outs, and although Penn State does eventually pick up a first down, the defense sets up the Tide with what would seem to be a perfect opportunity to tie the game when Tyrone King picks off Clark and takes it to the 11. But the Nittany Lion defense is ready: after Coffee picks up six yards on a draw, they hold Upchurch to only one. On third and 3 from the 4, John Parker Wilson attempts to pass but finds no one open and ends up scrambling for a yard. Now it’s fourth and 2 from the 3, and Alabama needs the touchdown. Nick Saban calls a draw play to Coffee.

Stuffed after a yard.

One of the most memorable stops in the history of Penn State’s storied defense – if it holds. Penn State gets the ball back with 2:52 to play but on their own 2 – seemingly, with a lot of field to cover, a good chance to burn the remaining clock. A pitch to Stephfon Green gets two, then Clark – in a call that threatens to be questioned forever – throws an incompletion. Stopping the clock and gaining nothing. Finally Joe Paterno and Clark realize this situation calls for giving it to Royster (already at 200 yards) early and often, but on third and eight, a draw play only picks up one yard.

Alabama gets another chance, 1:38 to play with, and a full complement of timeouts – and the ball on the Penn State 30. The first call may seem somewhat questionable – running the ball, not with Coffee or Upchurch, but with Mark Ingram, and straight ahead instead of towards the sideline – getting only a yard and burning a timeout. Coffee gets the ball on second down and gets out of bounds after five yards. Another questionable run call, this time to Demetrius Goode, gets stuffed at the line, but this time Alabama converts on fourth down when Wilson finds Julio Jones, who strides out of bounds at the 13 with 1:02 to play. It’s the first first down Alabama has gotten since their first play of the quarter. Nittany Lions fans fear the worst – what if Saban elects to go for two?

The Lion defense quickly buckles down, and a forward flip to Marquis Maze gets nailed instantly for a two-yard loss, burning another timeout. 57 seconds left. Wilson tosses it again, this time to Travis McCall, who gets stopped at the line of scrimmage and doesn’t get out of bounds. Clock continues to run… 50… 49… 48… 47… Finally, at 35 seconds, the Tide takes the third-down snap. Wilson once again aims for McCall, but this time overthrows him. Clock stops with 31 seconds left. No more dilly-dallying: the Tide have to make fourth and 12.

Wilson takes the snap and steps back. Looks for an open receiver, in the end zone or even just short of it as long as it’s past the three-yard line or near enough. Looking… looking… he breaks out of the pocket and attempts to elude the rush. Looking… looking…

And steps out of bounds right at the line of scrimmage.

Penn State escapes with the victory despite a couple of close scares. Evan Royster is the breakout star, but despite allowing 24 points, mostly by not being able to stop Glen Coffee for the first half, the defense is the star of the game in a contest Nittany Lions fans will tell their children and grandchildren about, especially if Penn State can go on to win the championship. Nick Saban is questioned for most of the post-game press conference about some questionable calls, especially on the final drive, but truth be told, he was out of tricks after nothing else he had tried had gotten past Joe Paterno’s defense for the second half.
Final score: Penn State 31, Alabama 24

Semifinal Matchups:

Rose Bowl: #9 USC v. #5 Penn State
Okay, so Alabama-Penn State wasn’t the defensive battle I advertised, but USC-Penn State could be. But with Joe McKnight playing at a Heisman-caliber level, Penn State might have trouble with him for more than a half. Because this is the real Rose Bowl, I won’t be simulating it.

Sugar Bowl: #3 Texas v. #2 Florida
Some may call this the real national championship game. There are some similarities with the real real national championship game. This one might be a battle of the last two Heisman winners, and it pits two able offenses against each other, but while the Big 12 team’s is most impressive, Florida boasts a fantastic defense, and we’ll see if Tim Tebow can make the difference in this one. This simulation will be announced after the new year.

Non-semifinal BCS bowls:
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma v. Alabama
Orange Bowl: Texas Tech v. Cincinnati

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Classic Da Blog, College Football | Comments (0)

2008 Golden Bowl Tournament: Minor Bowls as Modified by Golden Bowl Octofinals

December 15, 2008 – 11:00 am

These are how the minor bowls would be played as modified by Round 1 of the Golden Bowl Playoffs. These bowls may select from all teams that have at least six wins, a winning record, and either did not make or lost in Round 1 of the Golden Bowl Playoffs. Bowl names with modified matchups are in bold. I’ll be playing those games out after the real versions are played. The Cotton Bowl has been selected as the fifth BCS bowl, so the SEC’s third choice goes to the Outback Bowl no questions asked.

BOWL  Team Selection Order Teams DATE/ TIME/ CHANNEL
EagleBank Bowl ACC #9  Miami (FL) Dec. 20, 11 a.m. 
Navy  Navy  ESPN 
New Mexico Mountain West #4 BYU Dec. 20, 2:30 p.m. 
WAC #3  Fresno State ESPN 
St. Petersburg Big East (#6?)  South Florida Dec. 20, 4:30 p.m. 
Conference USA #5  Memphis ESPN2 
Pioneer Las Vegas Mountain West #1  Utah Dec. 20, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #4(/5)  Arizona ESPN
R+L Carriers New Orleans Conference USA #4 Southern Miss Dec. 21, 8:15 p.m. 
Sun Belt #1  Troy ESPN 
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Mountain West #2  TCU Dec. 23, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #7 (WAC #4 if none) Boise State ESPN 
Sheraton Hawaii WAC #2 (gen. Hawaii) Hawaii Dec. 24, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #6 (C-USA #7 if none) Notre Dame ESPN 
Motor City MAC #1/2  Central Michigan Dec. 26, 8 p.m. 
Big Ten #7  Wisconsin ESPN 
Meineke Car Care ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 6)  North Carolina Dec. 27, 1 p.m. 
Big East #3  West Virginia ESPN 
Champs Sports ACC #4  Florida State Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #(4/)5 Iowa ESPN 
Emerald Pac-10 #(4/)5  California Dec. 27, 8 p.m. 
ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 7)  Clemson ESPN 
Independence SEC #8 Kentucky Dec. 28, 8:15 p.m. 
Big 12 #7  Wake Forest ESPN 
Papajohns.com Big East (#5?)  Rutgers Dec. 29, 3 p.m. 
SEC #9 (Sun Belt if none) Florida Atlantic ESPN 
Valero Alamo Big Ten #4(/5) Northwestern Dec. 29, 8 p.m. 
Big 12 #4/5  Missouri ESPN 
Roady’s Humanitarian WAC #1 (gen. BSU)  Nevada Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m. 
ACC #8  Maryland ESPN 
Texas Big 12 #8  NC State Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Conference USA #6  Rice NFL Network 
Pacific Life Holiday Big 12 #3  Oklahoma State Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #2 Oregon ESPN 
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Conference USA #3?  Houston Dec. 31, Noon 
Mountain West #3  Air Force ESPN 
Brut Sun Pac-10 #3  Oregon State Dec. 31, 2 p.m. 
Big 12 #5/Big East #2  Pittsburgh CBS 
Gaylord Hotels Music City SEC #6/7 (Team’s Pref.) Vanderbilt Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. 
ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 5; must pick Chmp. Gm. Loser if >8 wins) Boston College ESPN 
Insight Big 12 #6  Kansas Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #6  Minnesota NFL Network 
Chick-fil-A SEC #5  South Carolina Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. 
ACC #2  Virginia Tech ESPN 
Outback SEC #3/4 (East)  Mississippi Jan. 1, 2009, 11 a.m. 
Big Ten #3  Michigan State ESPN 
Capital One Big Ten #2  Ohio State Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m. 
SEC #2  Georgia ABC 
Konica Minolta Gator Big 12 #4/Big East #2  Nebraska Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m. 
ACC #3  Georgia Tech CBS 
AutoZone Liberty SEC #6/7 (Team’s Pref.)  LSU Jan. 2, 2009, 5 p.m. 
Conference USA #1  East Carolina ESPN 
International Big East (#4?)  Connecticut Jan. 3, 2009, Noon 
MAC #3  Buffalo ESPN2 
GMAC Conference USA #2  Tulsa Jan. 6, 2009, 8 p.m. 
MAC #1/2  Ball State ESPN 

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Classic Da Blog | Comments (0)

2008 Golden Bowl Tournament Octofinals

December 14, 2008 – 2:00 pm

Early afternoon games:

#16 Troy v. #1 Oklahoma
Maybe it was the gusty conditions throwing Sam Bradford off his game, but Oklahoma, considered by many a prohibitive favorite to make the Golden Bowl, got more than they bargained for from the #16 seed. Troy managed to get inside Sooner territory on the first drive and Oklahoma could only score one touchdown in the first quarter, but that probably looked like a fluke after Chris Brown ticked off a 76-yard touchdown run to start the second. Oklahoma followed that up on their next drive by marching from their own 20 all the way to the Troy 2, only for Sam Bradford to be sacked on third and goal, holding the Sooners to a field goal. When Troy got a touchdown of their own, the whispers of a potenial upset started up again, even after the Sooners ended the half with another field goal to go up 20-7 – and they seem justified when Oklahoma starts the second half with two three-and-outs and Troy manages to go from near midfield to a touchdown in five plays, cutting the lead to six.

Oklahoma picks up another field goal but ends the quarter with another three-and-out, and despite Troy never scoring again, no one thinks the game is over until Bradford gets the ball back with 4:24 on the clock and proceeds to burn almost three minutes of that time before DeMarco Murray pounds through the line for a 13-yard score. Levi Brown proceeds to get intercepted on Troy’s very next play from scrimmage and Oklahoma escapes to the second round with a game that was a lot scarier than the final score would indicate.
Final score: Troy 14, Oklahoma 30 (I’m not counting Whatifsports’ rub-it-in field goal at the end)

#15 Buffalo v. #2 Florida
The Gators had no problem with the Bulls of Buffalo. They took a while to get going, allowing the Bulls to drive 59 yards for a touchdown the first time they got the ball, but that would be the last time Buffalo scored, and the Gators responded the next drive when Percy Harvin ran off a quick 46-yard touchdown. Buffalo threatened again the next drive, driving to the Gator 21 before being nailed for delay-of-game and giving up an interception. Florida scored five minutes into the second off that turnover, then intercepted Drew Willy’s next pass attempt and scored another touchdown off that. Florida added a field goal to end the first half with a 24-7 lead, then started the second half by forcing Buffalo to go three-and-out and returning the ensuing punt for a touchdown. The crowd in The Swamp engages in dueling “Bring on the Buckeyes!” and “Bring on the Raiders!” chants for most of the fairly pedestrian fourth quarter.
Final score: Buffalo 7, Florida 38

#11 Georgia Tech v. #6 Cincinnati
Many criticized this matchup when it was made, questioning why Cincinnati was getting such a high seed ahead of Texas Tech and USC and why Georgia Tech was in the field at all. The Bearcats seemed to vindicate the second question and make people reconsider the first. The Yellowjackets started the game with a 62-yard drive to the Cincy 10 only to miss a short field goal, then promptly coughed up a fumble the next time they had the ball and watched the Bearcats capitalize with a made field goal of their own. Georgia Tech did make a field goal to start the second quarter, but then saw Cincinnati run off three straight touchdowns and spike the ball too late on first-and-goal on the 3 to try for a fourth before going into the half. Nonetheless, the Bearcats went into the half with a 24-3 lead, and while Jonathan Dwyer started some thoughts of a Yellowjacket comeback with an 80-yard touchdown run on Georgia Tech’s first play from scrimmage of the second half, Cincinnati snuffed it out with a field goal, a three-and-out, and a long punt return that just barely got shoved out-of-bounds at the 1. The Bearcats run up another 13 in the fourth to ice the game.
Final score: Georgia Tech 10, Cincinnati 47

Late afternoon games:

#14 East Carolina v. #3 Texas
This was the team that upset Virginia Tech and West Virginia to start the season? This was the team that had just stunned Tulsa in the Conference USA title game? They were nothing to a Longhorn team out to prove they should have been in the Big 12 title game, as Colt McCoy made his final argument for the Heisman by going 13-16 with his arm and scoring three touchdowns, two with his arm and one with his legs. For much of the game it didn’t look to go that way. Vondrell McGee fumbled the ball on the Longhorns’ first drive but the Pirates went for it on fourth and three and didn’t get it. Texas went three and out and the Pirates proceeded to drive 59 yards only to miss a 37 yard field goal attempt. Texas scored on their next two drives but the Pirates got a touchdown of their own, and the Longhorns went into the half up 14-7. The Longhorns could only get one more touchdown in the third quarter but ran three off in the fourth to put the game away.
Final score: East Carolina 7, Texas 42

#13 Virginia Tech v. #4 Alabama
No two ways about it: Alabama gave the Hokies a shellacking in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide scored on their only two drives of the first quarter and the Hokies only threatened once. The Tide let up on the gas in the second, just stopping the Hokies from fourth-and-goal on the one and not getting that lucky later on third-and-goal from the 2, but they methodically finish off the Hokies in the second half. It’s not pretty, but it’s still a big win, keyed by Glen Coffee picking up 158 yards on 23 carries, including a touchdown.
Final score: Virginia Tech 7, Alabama 34

#12 Boise State v. #5 Penn State
The Broncos were right at home in the biting, below-freezing temperatures, and gave the Nittany Lions a bit of a scare – at first. Penn State scored on their first two drives, the first being a blistering 60-yard touchdown drive, but the second hinging on Kevin Kelly making a 49-yard attempt. The momentum seems to shift after that, with Penn State going three-and-out three straight times and Boise State finally taking advantage with a 70-yard touchdown drive of their own, entering the half only down three and with their defense credited with an interception. The Nittany Lions find their offense in the third quarter, but can’t put the ball in the end zone and settle for three field goals while their vaunted defense keeps the Broncos at bay. The Lions offense finally reward them with a touchdown, and Joe Paterno’s squad ices the game with a drive that takes off 4:25 of the 4:51 that was on the clock to start the drive and ends with another field goal, one that leaves many wondering why Chris Petersen held on to his timeouts until his team was on offense with less than 30 seconds to make up three scores.
Final score: Boise State 7, Penn State 29

Primetime games:
#10 Ohio State v. #7 Texas Tech
Graham Harrell drove the Red Raiders 52 yards for the touchdown on Texas Tech’s first drive of the game, but after a Buckeye field goal, Ohio State forced a three-and-out and returned the ensuing punt 63 yards for the touchdown to take a 10-7 lead after the first quarter. But the first time they got the ball in the second, they went three-and-out and saw Texas Tech return the ball into Buckeye territory, then proceed to take advantage with a touchdown to retake the lead. Ohio State never scored again while the Red Raiders broke the game open in the second half. As the game became all-too-similar to a certain Los Angeles night to Buckeye fans, Texas Tech scored 30 points in the second half while Harrell made his own last pitch for the Heisman, going 32-48 for 320 yards and four touchdowns, and even running seven times for 14 yards. Ohio State’s first first down of the second half came over five minutes into the fourth quarter.
Final score: Ohio State 10, Texas Tech 44

#9 USC v. #8 Utah
Pete Carroll made his feelings clear during the post-game press conference. “I don’t see why they made us play the game in that (expletive),” the normally soft-spoken coach told reporters. “That game should not have been played. When you have a game this big, if you have an 8-9 matchup, and you’re not going to give home field to the team that’s proved themselves to be better over the course of the season, at least put it in the warmer-weather environment. There was no reason for that game to be played. We deserved better than that and everyone knows it.”

When he was interviewed by ESPN’s “College Football Live” the next day, Golden Bowl Selection Committee chairman Morgan Wick had only three words for Carroll: “Play better teams. Oh, and play better teams on the road. And don’t lose to a team that Utah beats next week, even if your loss is on the road, their win is at home, and both games are close.” Most sportswriters and TV commentators agreed with Carroll, while Utah fans indicated that it was their team that had “proved themselves to be better over the course of the season”.

You could be forgiven for briefly forgetting that USC actually won the game, the only road team to win an octofinal game – but the game was sloppy as heck, played with a couple inches of snow on the field in below-freezing conditions. It’s a wonder people weren’t falling down all over the place. USC drove 35 yards down to the 28 their first drive of the game, but David Buehler hooked a 45-yard attempt to the left. Buehler would later score from 36 yards and tack on two more (and miss another), but the game’s only touchdown would come on a 51-yard run by Joe McKnight in the second quarter.

The defense was the real key to USC’s eventual victory, holding the Utes scoreless, and leaving them without a first down in the second half until 5:46 was left in the fourth quarter, on a drive that ended when Brian Johnson lost a handle on the football and USC was able to recover to set up the last field goal – oddly, the only fumble of the game. Utah was still able to come back in two scores if they got two-point conversions on both, and managed to drive from their own 28 to midfield, but managed the clock badly in doing so: the drive started with 3:09 left on the clock, Johnson was sacked on first down with 1:33 left on the clock, took another sack on second, and by the time he was sacked again on fourth down only 48 seconds were left on the clock and Mark Sanchez could start taking knees.
Final score: USC 16, Utah 0

Quarterfinal matchups:

#9 USC v. #1 Oklahoma
Sam Bradford and Oklahoma’s high-powered offense, meet Rey Maualuga and USC’s best-in-FBS defense. With a pretty impressive set of personalities on offense as well, from Mark Sanchez to Joe McKnight, there’s a very real chance of an upset here as USC attempts to prove they deserved a higher spot in the national championship conversation. One potential source of Trojan concern: The game will be in Norman.

#7 Texas Tech v. #2 Florida
No fewer than three players with at least an argument for the Heisman take the field in The Swamp, as the same defense that held Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells to a combined 39 yards rushing now attempts to stop last year’s Heisman winner Tim Tebow. On the other hand, have Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree ever faced a defense like this?

#6 Cincinnati v. #3 Texas
Cincinnati proved it could put up points as well as they could prevent them, but that was against Georgia Tech. To many, the Bearcats still have yet to prove they deserve their absurdly high seeding. But the only way they’ll prove it is by proving that if anything, they were underrated – in Austin no less. In the Golden Bowl Universe, Colt McCoy may just have won himself the Heisman against East Carolina, and he’ll pose quite a challenge to the Bearcat defense.

#5 Penn State v. #4 Alabama
Now we’re talking! This will be a low-scoring affair, I can guarantee that, when two fantastic defenses – and two of college football’s greatest coaches – take the field in Tuscaloosa. Looks like the Rose Bowl half of the bracket could continue to produce some absolutely amazing games, when this is coupled with Oklahoma-USC.

Modified non-BCS bowls coming tomorrow; quarterfinal results next Sunday.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Blog News, Classic Da Blog | Comments (0)

2008 Golden Bowl Tournament Selection Show Announcement

December 10, 2008 – 4:03 pm

Welcome to the second annual Selection Show Announcement for the simulated Golden Bowl Tournament – your chance to see what a playoff would be like. If you want a playoff in college football, especially if it was handled by the NCAA, it’ll probably take the form here. Here are the parameters of the tournament:

  • 11 teams are selected from the Conference Champions of all conferences
  • 5 more teams are selected from an at-large pool consisting of all other teams
  • First and second round games on campus sites; semifinals at any two of the Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, and Capital One Bowl, determined by regional interest (in actuality, it would rotate between the Sugar, Rose, Orange, and either Cotton or Cap One); the National Championship to be held at the Orange Bowl

The conference champions with auto bids are Oklahoma, Florida, Utah, Penn State, Boise State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, East Carolina, Buffalo, and Troy. Texas, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, and Alabama have been selected as at-large teams.

Good luck to all our teams, especially our Number 1 seed, Oklahoma.

Octofinal matchups:

#16 Troy (Sun Belt champion) v. #1 Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)
I really found myself splitting hairs at several places in the seeding process. The first place I did so was: Who should be the No. 1 seed, Florida or Oklahoma? Florida had a worse loss, but because Georgia and Florida State found themselves in the top ten of the RPI, Florida ended up looking like it had the better wins and Oklahoma losing to Texas suddenly looked like they weren’t getting the job done against a team in the field. This was arguably the least substantive point of stress, because if the two teams meet in the Golden Bowl it won’t matter what order they’re seeded in, and I stressed a little over the seeding of 15 and 16 as well. I went with Oklahoma to postpone any Big 12 or SEC rematch until the Golden Bowl. Keyed by Heisman hopeful Sam Bradford, Oklahoma’s record-setting offense takes on a Troy team a year removed from being one win away from a fantastic, Sun Belt Championship-winning season, only to see Florida Atlantic snatch it away from them.

#15 Buffalo (MAC champion) v. #2 Florida (SEC champion)
Congratulations, Buffalo, on stopping Ball State’s bid for an undefeated season! Your reward: A chance to try and stop last year’s Heisman winner on offense while also getting past the stifling Gator defense.

#14 East Carolina (C-USA champion) v. #3 Texas (at-large)
East Carolina’s early-season run almost had it bumping up to the 13 seed, but alas, the Pirates will have to settle for a first-round matchup with a Texas team still upset over not getting its chance to play in the Big 12 Title Game. There’s now a way to rebound from that, but Texas will definitely get more of a challenge from East Carolina than it would have from Buffalo or Troy. If the Pirates are going to pull off one more upset, its defense will have to stop Heisman hopeful Colt McCoy.

#13 Virginia Tech (ACC champion) v. #4 Alabama (at-large)
V-Tech fans, blame your four losses and the fact that the best team you beat in a true road game was North Carolina, RPI #22. The Hokie defense will be in the spotlight in this one, though when you’re in the SEC you’re bound to have a great defense of your own.

#12 Boise State (WAC champion) v. #5 Penn State (Big Ten champion)
Penn State over USC or Texas Tech? USC I’ll get to; Penn State played a better nonconference schedule than Texas Tech and beat some decent teams on the road. PSU over Texas Tech was a very difficult decision, but the Fighting JoePas might not like coming out on top, because their great defense is now being asked to stop a team hungry to prove they deserve to be undefeated, one with a very high-powered offense – and a defense that gives up fewer points per game than the Nittany Lions.

#11 Georgia Tech (at-large) v. #6 Cincinnati (Big East champion)
Georgia Tech just edged out Oklahoma State for the final at-large, and Pitt had a pretty good resume as well (and the BCS rankings would throw TCU in there for the hell of it), yet G-Tech could have easily passed Ohio State in the seeding. As for Cincy, they played a better nonconference schedule than Texas Tech, have better wins than anyone else that could compete with Texas Tech, and I want to hold off on a Big 12 rematch until the semifinals. The Bearcats have been rotating QBs like there’s no tomorrow, but it’ll be the defense that’ll be tasked to stop the triple-option. A low scoring game probably favors Cincy and its great defense; a high scoring one could portend an upset.

#10 Ohio State (at-large) v. #7 Texas Tech (at-large)
Don’t like this seeding, Red Raider fans? Don’t like having to play a worldbeater in the first round, and potentially Florida in the second? Thank your lucky stars Texas doesn’t get a chance at revenge in the quarters, and next time, keep in mind that in the playoffs, the regular season still matters. Of course, Ohio State is also groaning at trying to stop the amazing combo of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, but they have their own offensive force in Terrell Pryor.

#9 USC (Pac-10 champion) v. #8 Utah (Mountain West champion)
Utah, USC, and Ohio State were pretty much all a collective case of splitting hairs. I could have easily justified ranking Ohio State ahead of USC on the grounds that USC’s win over the Buckeyes was in the Coliseum. USC’s problem? Even though they had the best top-to-bottom nonconference schedule of anyone outside the bottom three, Virginia was the best team they beat on the road, and Oregon was the best team they beat not named Ohio State. Oregon also just so happens to be the best team Boise State beat, to put that in perspective. That makes the loss to Oregon State look very concerning. Don’t get too excited by how much the Trojans ran up the score on some bad teams; it wasn’t enough to build their resume. Still, if the Trojan defense can be the squad that allowed the fewest points and yards per game in I-A, they can knock off a potentially questionable Ute offense.

The half of the bracket containing the 1 seed will play in the Rose Bowl for the semifinal; the half of the bracket containing the 2 seed will play in the Sugar Bowl. First-round results from Whatifsports.com coming on Sunday.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Classic Da Blog, College Football | Comments (0)

Time set for Golden Bowl Selection Show, for real this time, plus Random Internet Discovery

December 9, 2008 – 9:02 pm

And it’s a doozy: 6 AM PT tomorrow morning. I was hoping I could get it in at 6 PM PT tonight, after one of my finals, but I got Distracted ™ and had no chance of getting set up before 6 anyway. I pretty much know two of the first-round matchups at this point, so I only need to finalize the remaining six games, and could work late into the night to do so. (The first stage of the selection process worked pretty much as I expected, with four at-larges being fairly obvious and the fifth being a head-scratcher of relative mediocrity. Ohio State fans may be somewhat disappointed with their seed though.) All eight games will be revealed, at once, at 6 AM PT.

UPDATE: Okay, forget that, it’s delayed again, an unexpected issue came up and I’m in no mood to write it anyway, no later than 2 PM PT.

Also, in place of having a webcomic post tonight, I’m giving you the Random Internet Discovery a day early, with more weird, wild, and wacky art than you can shake a stick at.

The timing of NBC’s Panthers-Giants-to-Sunday-Night announcement is curious. Was NBC and the NFL going to go with some other game if the Bucs had won on Monday night?

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Blog News, Classic Da Blog, Internet adventures, Random Internet Discovery, SNF Flex Scheduling Watch | Comments (0)

Who SHOULD be going to which bowls?

December 7, 2008 – 5:23 pm


Based on my College Football Rankings, which I will put up… fairly soon. I hope. The Golden Bowl Selection Show is being delayed to 6 PM PT, maybe even until tomorrow, because my computer abruptly aborted, Excel wasn’t autorecovering the file I was doing my planning on for some reason, and that means I need to go all the way home to transfer back the post-championship-weekend RPI. I’ve selected one at large, have some idea of at least two others, and pretty much know who my top two and bottom three teams will be, if not in what order.

Teams in parenthesis reflect the probability that Boise State won’t be selected by the BCS; asterisks indicate at-large selections. Because of the “winning records before .500″ rule, incidentally, Notre Dame will have to settle for one of the –AL spots, probably the Motor City if Boise State doesn’t go to the BCS. All times Eastern.




BOWL  Teams  My Picks  DATE/TIME/CHANNEL 
EagleBank Bowl  ACC #9  Maryland Dec. 20, 11 a.m. 
Navy  Navy ESPN 
New Mexico  Mountain West #4  Colorado State Dec. 20, 2:30 p.m. 
WAC #3  Nevada (Fresno State) ESPN 
St. Petersburg  Big East (#6?)  South Florida Dec. 20, 4:30 p.m. 
Conference USA #5  Southern Miss ESPN2 
Pioneer Las Vegas  Mountain West #1 TCU Dec. 20, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #4(/5)  California or Oregon State ESPN 
R+L Carriers New Orleans  C-USA #4 (Southern Miss rates higher but is 6-6) Rice Dec. 21, 8:15 p.m. 
Sun Belt #1  Troy ESPN 
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia  Mountain West #2  BYU Dec. 23, 8 p.m.
Pac-10 #7 (WAC #4 if none) Louisiana Tech (Nevada) ESPN 
Sheraton Hawaii  WAC #2 (gen. Hawaii)  Hawaii Dec. 24, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #6 (C-USA #7 if none) Northern Illinois* ESPN 
Motor City  MAC #1/2  Ball State Dec. 26, 8 p.m. 
Big Ten #7  Minnesota (Louisiana Tech*) ESPN 
Meineke Car Care  ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 6)  Clemson Dec. 27, 1 p.m. 
Big East #3  West Virginia ESPN
Champs Sports  ACC #4  Georgia Tech Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #(4/)5 Northwestern (Wisconsin) ESPN
Emerald  Pac-10 #(4/)5  Oregon State or California Dec. 27, 8 p.m. 
ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 7)  Miami (FL) ESPN
Independence  SEC #8 (or Sun Belt; Fla. Atlantic technically rates higher) Louisiana-Lafayette Dec. 28, 8:15 p.m. 
Big 12 #7  Central Michigan* ESPN
Papajohns.com  Big East (#5?)  Connecticut Dec. 29, 3 p.m. 
SEC #9 (Sun Belt if none) Arkansas State ESPN
Valero Alamo  Big Ten #4(/5) Mich. State (Northwestern) Dec. 29, 8 p.m. 
Big 12 #4/5 Nebraska ESPN
Roady’s Humanitarian  WAC #1 (gen. BSU)  Fresno State (Boise State) Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m. 
ACC #8  Wake Forest ESPN
Texas  Big 12 #8  Bowling Green* Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Conference USA #6  Memphis NFL Network
Pacific Life Holiday  Big 12 #3  Missouri Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 #2  Oregon ESPN 
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces  Conference USA #3?  Houston Dec. 31, Noon 
Mountain West #3  Air Force ESPN 
Brut Sun  Pac-10 #3  Arizona Dec. 31, 2 p.m. 
Big 12 #5/Big East #2 Pittsburgh CBS 
Gaylord Hotels Music City  SEC #6/7 (Team’s Pref.)  Vanderbilt Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. 
ACC #5/6/7 (gen. 5; must pick Chmp. Gm. Loser if >8 wins) Boston College ESPN 
Insight  Big 12 #6  Kansas Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #6  Wisconsin (Minnesota) NFL Network 
Chick-fil-A  SEC #5  LSU Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. 
ACC #2  North Carolina ESPN 
Outback  SEC #3/4 (East)  South Carolina Jan. 1, 2009, 11 a.m. 
Big Ten #3  Iowa (Michigan State) ESPN 
Capital One  Big Ten #2  Ohio State (Iowa) Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m.
SEC #2  Georgia ABC 
Konica Minolta Gator  Big 12 #4/Big East #2  Oklahoma State Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m. 
ACC #3  Florida State CBS 
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi  BCS (Big Ten #1)  Penn State Jan. 1, 2009, 4:30 p.m.
BCS (Pac-10 #1)  USC ABC 
FedEx Orange  BCS  Cincinnati Jan. 1, 2009, 8:30 p.m. 
BCS (ACC #1)  Virginia Tech FOX 
AT&T Cotton  Big 12 #2  Texas Tech Jan. 2, 2009, 2 p.m. 
SEC #3/4 (West)  Mississippi FOX 
AutoZone Liberty  SEC #6/7 (Team’s Pref.)  Kentucky Jan. 2, 2009, 5 p.m. 
Conference USA #1  East Carolina ESPN 
Allstate Sugar  BCS  Utah (Ohio State) Jan. 2, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (SEC #1)  Boise State (Alabama) FOX 
International  Big East (#4?)  Rutgers Jan. 3, 2009, Noon 
MAC #3  Western Michigan ESPN2 
Tostitos Fiesta BCS  Alabama (Utah) Jan. 5, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (Big 12 #1)  Texas FOX 
GMAC  Conference USA #2  Tulsa Jan. 6, 2009, 8 p.m. 
MAC #1/2  Buffalo ESPN 
FedEx BCS National Championship Game  BCS #1  Florida Jan. 8, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS #2  Oklahoma FOX 

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Blog News, Classic Da Blog, College Football, College Football Rankings | Comments (0)

As promised a significantly longer time ago than I would have hoped…

December 4, 2008 – 5:00 pm
Why should we put up with the reality presented to us by the BCS? A 16-team playoff with all conference champions can avoid most if not all of the pitfalls BCS backers claim would befall a playoff – especially if the media puts enough of an emphasis on seeding. I’ve heard people say we should top out a playoff at 8 teams and/or keep out the weaker conference champions (just the top 8 teams) in order to keep out teams that don’t deserve to play for a national championship. To which I reply: That’s kind of the point. By dangling the carrot of playing a scrub team that won a scrub conference in the first round, my system (and even an 8-team system with all BCS champions) motivates teams to keep playing even when they’re safely in the field. (It’s a more valid argument with the 8-team version, however, because lower-tier BCS conference champions are still good enough to surprise high seeds – especially overrated high seeds – and with only three rounds, can luck into a national championship, and with only two at-larges and no auto bid for good mid-major teams, they may be keeping out teams that deserve at least a shot.)

Last year, I in fact did conduct a 16-team Golden Bowl playoff, in much the way I imagine the NCAA would. Rather than blindly using the BCS rankings or even my own college football rankings, I used much the same criteria the NCAA uses for the basketball tournament: RPI, quality wins, road record, record entering the playoff, that sort of thing. The result was an odd field, to say the least (Virginia Tech the #1 seed?), caused by most BCS programs’ tendency to schedule nothing but scrub teams in the nonconference schedule. (The ACC, which also produced Boston College as an at-large, was artificially inflated in this system simply by having a high number of high-RPI teams.) Nonetheless, I don’t think I excluded anyone that was considered a plausible candidate for the real-life national championship, with Boston College and maybe Florida the only dodgy candidate in the top 12 or 13 seeds. (This year also produced three viable at-large teams – Texas, Texas Tech, the SEC title game loser – for a five-at-large field, which has me wondering if shrinkage might be feasible.)

However, I made a mistake in having all rounds determined entirely by voting. As I had even fewer readers than I had now, I got basically no votes. Result: I ended up making a lot of painstaking read-throughs of possibly meaningless statistics at Yahoo Sports, which burned me out so bad I never actually did declare the winner of the Golden Bowl Championship. I have more readers now, but most come for the webcomic posts, and even with voting I still have to come up with some concept of how the game would go, which practically means I don’t come up with one. And that doesn’t give you a vivid concept of how a playoff would actually go. It doesn’t make you as excited as a real playoff. No simulated version can, but last year’s model wasn’t even trying.

Instead, I’m using Whatifsports.com to simulate each game – assuming they will have 2008 rosters up by next weekend (by which I mean the weekend of the 14th). Here’s how last year’s Golden Bowl might have gone down.

Also last year, I held first round games on campus sites and subsequent rounds at various other sites. The semifinals went to the Sugar and Rose Bowls, and I deliberately seeded the Big 10 and Pac-10 champions to meet in the semifinals to preserve at least a chance of the traditional matchup. (I may have underseeded #11 USC a bit to make it work.) The quarterfinals went to the Cotton, Capital One, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls.

This year, to better preserve the role of the bowls and further increase the incentive to play for seeding, I’m moving the quarterfinals to campus sites as well, although I’m not convinced about that. The semifinals will still be at bowl sites, and for a while I was tempted to go with a system that would determine which bowls would be the semifinals by which teams made the semifinals. That would be a logistical nightmare and was only ever a sop to the Rose Bowl’s traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup.

The bowls would run alongside the tournament and any teams eliminated in any round would move on to play one more game later on. First-round losers would be dumped into the general bowl pool with teams that did not make the tournament. I’m actually thinking any money they would receive would be the same as any regular season game, with only the stakes increasing its value, thus further encouraging playing for seeding and encouraging more competitive first round games. I’d also delete a week from the season, though I obviously can’t do that here – and I actually like the Pac-10′s switch to a true round-robin format since the 12th game was added – to make it work properly and prevent the Heisman ceremony from going ridiculously late.

Quarterfinal losers would go to one of the BCS bowls: the Sugar, Rose, Cotton, and Orange bowls would rotate between being semifinal games and bowls for BCS losers. I’m leaning towards not going with the Capital One Bowl, despite having a higher payout right now, higher ratings, and a higher SEC tie-in than the Cotton Bowl, because of the Cotton’s now-bastardized tradition and the Cap One’s corporate name, not to mention its proximity to the Orange Bowl. (In fact, because of the weird SEC tie-in structure for the 3 and 4 spots, which bowl I pick has major implications for the SEC tie-in structure at the top.) The Fiesta Bowl I’m reserving for a third-place game, for semifinal losers, but it still rotates with the semifinal bowls for hosting the Golden Bowl.

My work ethic and other projects and obligations permitting, the Second Annual Golden Bowl Selection Show will begin this Sunday at 7 PM ET (4 PM PT). Watch Da Countdown! Next weekend, around the 13th, I’ll post the first round results, along with a revised minor bowl schedule; quarterfinal results will be posted the weekend before Christmas. This timing hopefully avoids finals week for schools which hold finals around this time, which I know is a concern. The semifinals are held around New Year’s Day, along with perfunctory quarterfinal-loser-bowl results, and the Golden Bowl is a week or two later, maybe even as late as MLK weekend or the gap between the NFL conference championships and Super Bowl. (The idea of football being a “one-semester sport” is kind of diluted when the current National Championship Game is held on January 8th. The “gap” may be preferable to avoid conflicting with, say, the Senior Bowl, with two weeks after New Year’s even more preferable.) Fiesta Bowl results would be available anywhere from a week to a day before the Golden Bowl itself.

I’m still kind of tweaking the whole format and I’m getting a MUCH later start on actually figuring out who’s in or out than I’d otherwise like. Still, I hope you have an opinion and you’re ready for the ride…

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Blog News, Classic Da Blog, College Football | Comments (0)

Hey, I wasn’t going to make the strip slip to the morning again.

November 27, 2008 – 11:05 pm

I may be spending the night at a relative’s, but nonetheless I’m still posting the new college football rankings (long-overdue, as always) and updating the lineal titles!

Now if only I could take care of that nagging college football schedule…

Details about changes to my college football playoff should be coming by the time next week’s rankings come out, including a major change I’m considering compared to last year.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Classic Da Blog, College Football Lineal Title, College Football Rankings, NFL Lineal Title, Web site news | Comments (0)

College Football Rankings after Week 10, plus musings on Barack Obama that’s not related to his win

November 6, 2008 – 8:19 pm

Okay, I tried to write this as though we hadn’t already gone through two days and change of games already this week. Ball State has already played, which sucks as I had to carefully word its entry so as not to seem like an idiot while still plausibly coming from before its game. It didn’t help that I forgot my laptop’s power cord and had to waste two hours to go back home and get it. It would have saved me more than an hour and a half and I could have had the rankings up much earlier, and would be less under the gun for the schedule. Sadly, the SNF Flex Scheduling Watch not only may have to wait until Friday, but take into account Thursday night results as well.

Did you hear? Barack Obama supports a college football playoff! He wants to “get…the top eight teams right at the end. You got a playoff. Decide on a national champion.” Obviously this rolls right into my wheelhouse, and it gives me a chance to survey the landscape for my college football playoff proposal.

(How about McCain and his call to root out steroids? When you think about it, a playoff is a bit frivolous for Obama to be advocating; McCain talked about a more serious issue that can be life or death. It’s something that actually would be plausible for him to do as president, rather than get ridiculed by everyone outside sports, if Obama even had the power to do it at all. I read one comment that said “McCain wants make [sic] things back to the way they used to be. Obama is looking fix [sic] a broken system by making change.” Um… are you saying you think the proliferation of steroids is just “the way things are” now?)

Barack. I love ya. I voted for ya. I completely agree on the need for a playoff. But you’re not ambitious enough, man!

This happens every year at this time: wannabe playoff pushers ruin the good name of the playoff idea by proposing playoff schemes that’s whatever would be the ideal scheme for that particular year with a minimum of teams (to Protect the Sanctity of the Regular Season(tm)). Last year the big proposal was an eight-team playoff with automatic bids for the BCS conference champions. At least one place proposed also including an automatic bid for the best non-BCS conference team, leaving only one at-large. That would have worked last year, when there were only one or two non-conference champions with a claim at the BCS (Kansas and Georgia) and an undefeated non-BCS conference team (Hawaii).

It would be an unmitigated disaster this year. The Big 12 South is a clusterbleep, and leaving an odd team out between Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would be rather inherently unfair, especially if everyone in that division has at least two losses. That would get amplified if you threw in the SEC Title Game loser or kept the non-BCS automatic qualifier. And if you junked the latter, what happens to what could still be as many as three undefeated non-BCS conference teams? And what about USC, which would get screwed if Oregon State wins out? And all this to keep the conference champions of the crummy ACC and Big East (highest-ranked teams in the BCS #19 and #25 respectively, and not much higher in my rankings)?

So now the big proposal is throwing in just the top eight teams regardless of conference affiliations, which might be unfair to leagues with a lot of parity, not to mention non-BCS schools that never really get that high. As Jay Mariotti said recently on Around the Horn (paraphrased), “this would be a good year for a playoff because we have eight championship-caliber teams”. Am I the only one who thinks that would make an eight-team playoff a bad idea? If the top eight teams are bunched up at the top, they have basically zero motivation to play for seeding, only to get into the tournament! It’s the same no matter where they’re seeded or who they play, so why bother?

As it turns out, at least this year, more really is more.

The 16-team system that has been gaining a lot of traction – all 11 conference champions, plus 5 at larges – is one system that would have worked last year and this year. Five at-larges was more than enough for everybody; Kansas and Georgia were both rewarded for their strong seasons with at-large berths in my simulated playoffs. (Five may in fact have been too many, as Florida and Boston College both got in, but as both were seeded ahead of teams that were seriously considered for the real-life title game it may have been deserved.) Missouri and West Virginia, after last-day upsets, were forced to go on the road in the first round against real-life championship contenders (but at least Missouri got in after their two losses both came to Oklahoma). 3-loss Virginia Tech was my 1 seed on the basis of their schedule; Arizona State, Cincinnati, and Texas had 3 losses but didn’t get in at all. (And remember, only two teams – Kansas and Hawaii – had one loss or fewer.)

This year? I’d like to point any doubters to my case for a playoff – my system specifically – from the leadup to last year’s simulation.

Why, the 8-team proponents say, should I award spots in the tournament to every mid-major conference champion? No way are they better than potential at-large teams that would make for a true top 16. But this is actually a strength. Sure, the MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt champions might not be real threats to win the national championship. But you can’t tell me it’s not incredibly valuable to pick up a top 3 seed and, basically, a free pass to the second round. The four seed, on the other hand, might be at risk of an upset against one of the better mid-major champions, or if it’s a really strong year for mid-majors, an at-large. The five and six seeds get stuck with either the lower-rated at-larges or the “BCS Buster” du jour.

There’s still a lot for the eight top teams to play for:

  • “The MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt champions might not be real threats to win the national championship”? Not anymore! Before last week the Sun Belt was the only non-BCS conference without an undefeated team! Even now facing any conference champion from any conference that’s not the Sun Belt brings the very real possibility of an upset of Appalachian State-esque proportions! Suddenly there’s a huge incentive for one of the top teams to strive for a 1 seed; anything less would be risking an upset, but with a 1 seed you can rest your starters and coast. (If Conference USA is not a factor anymore, we can extend that privlege to the 2 seed, releasing some pressure to be #1, but that’s the same as the BCS we have now anyway.) If we went by the BCS standings a BCS conference champion could be seeded as low as 14, meaning even a 3 seed might have to contend with a BCS team!
  • After getting someone to pound on in the first round, the 1 seed will be tanned, rested and ready for the next round. You want to avoid the 8 seed so you’re not risking having to face a far more rested team in the second round! If we extend the above privlege to the 2 seed, the 7 seed becomes off-limits as well!
  • Not to mention, if the BCS standings are any indication, if you sink too close to the 8 you risk the Mountain West champion (maybe even Boise State) bumping you down a spot – possibly all the way to 9 and a first-round road game! If we went by the BCS standings the top 11 teams would all get in right now (assuming Oregon State loses), meaning a seed as high as 6 puts you up against a legit national championship contender!
  • Depending on how we set up the details, we haven’t even mentioned the importance of getting a seed of 4 or higher for a second-round home game!

The Big 12′s Big 4 would all be jockeying for position, knowing they could get a Troy in the first round and a second-round home game, or they could get a Ball State or North Carolina or West Virginia or even an Ohio State or Oregon State, with a second-round road game against the first type of team looming. Oklahoma State doesn’t want people saying they could get a 9 seed; they want to knock off Texas Tech this weekend and get a game in front of their home fans, while Texas Tech doesn’t want to give the pollsters or committee an excuse to dump them from the top few seeds to the middle or even bottom few seeds, taking them from a relatively easy first round opponent to a team that could win it all if you don’t handle them now.

There’s a possibility that an Alabama-Florida SEC title game would be a coastfest for both teams under a playoff, but with the winner almost guaranteed a top three seed and the loser probably condemned to a 5 or worse (6 or worse for Florida), there’s still quite a bit to play for. Penn State doesn’t want to lose another game, because they’re probably getting a top three seed right now. Sure, it might be cold comfort to have a small number next to your name if you’re playing Tulsa or West Virginia, but look on the bright side: they wouldn’t be sinking so low as to be staring at Ohio State, Ball State, or even Boise State, not to mention the possible second-round home game.

It’s not perfect. Maybe I could reduce the field a little. But it provides meaningful incentives to increase your standing within the playoff, which is more than can be said for most smaller systems. I guess this is one place where I ever-so-slightly disagree with the new President-Elect of the United States. (Well, aside from some places in my platform examination.)

To learn more about my system and the criteria for my simulation of it later, click here.

By Morgan Wick | Also posted in Classic Da Blog, College Football, College Football Rankings | Comments (0)