Category Archives: College Football Rankings

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 7

October 21, 2011 – 11:55 am

We have an interloper in the Alabama-LSU-Oklahoma oligarchy in the C Ratings. Boise State picked up right where they left off in the Mountain West, winning their first conference game big over Colorado State. It’s not the conference they thought they were joining, but for this year at least it’ll provide a formidible challenge when they face TCU. If they survive that game and run the table, who’s going to argue against them for the national championship?

Meanwhile, Kansas State has finally put every undefeated team in the Top 25, and Northern Illinois is once again in positive B Points. This week’s rankings don’t include the Sun Belt teams that played Tuesday, or the Thursday night game.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC #1 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .906 B Rating: 44.930 C Rating: 38.779 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama owned a mediocre Ole Miss team, but other teams are creeping closer, and Tennessee is no Ole Miss.
2 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
7-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .846 B Rating: 40.859 C Rating: 36.063 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Great job dispatching Tennessee. Suspending key players may be bad, but Auburn is overrated, and it seemed to work for them before.
3 Boise State MWC #1 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #5 A Rat: .821 B Rating: 38.907 C Rating: 33.944 AP: 5 BCS: 5
The Broncos started life in their new conference in a big way, blowing out Colorado State on the road. Mediocre Air Force and horrid UNLV will be their preparation for the TCU game.
4 Oklahoma B12 #1 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .803 B Rating: 35.762 C Rating: 30.918 AP: 3 BCS: 3
OU slips a spot with a concerning score-ratio game against a pretty bad Kansas team. They might want to find areas of improvement before Texas Tech comes to Norman.
5 Stanford P12 #1 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .873 B Rating: 29.293 C Rating: 24.267 AP: 7 BCS: 8
Big win over Wazzu makes up for last week’s slip, and they want national championship respect. But the Cougars’ rivals will not go away easily.
6 Wisconsin B10 #1 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #4 A Rat: .907 B Rating: 29.274 C Rating: 24.044 AP: 4 BCS: 6
Indiana’s A Rating is so horrid that even blowing them out leaves the Badgers open to Boise’s and Stanford’s hard charges. But now comes a big test against Michigan State.
7 Oklahoma State B12 #2 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .705 B Rating: 23.093 C Rating: 19.701 AP: 6 BCS: 4
People are getting excited over Little Brother in Stillwater, and Bedlam is going to be must-see. Some close calls suppress their ranking vis-a-vis the BCS, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
8 Clemson ACC #1 Prncton/Yale
7-0 LW: #9 A Rat: .713 B Rating: 15.960 C Rating: 12.927 AP: 7 BCS: 8
Good win over Maryland, but North Carolina is not to be underestimated, especially with G-Tech and main division challenger Wake Forest ahead.
9 Oregon P12 #2 ’09 Boise St.
5-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .604 B Rating: 14.429 C Rating: 12.700 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Oregon is making a hard charge after the opening loss to one of the best teams in the country, and suddenly they’re the nation’s best one-loss team. Now they travel to hapless Colorado.
10 Michigan B10 #2 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #6 A Rat: .637 B Rating: 13.651 C Rating: 10.966 AP: 18 BCS: 18
Party time in East Lansing, and the Wolverines pick up the pieces. But they’re still a very good team, and they should bounce back against Purdue.
11 Texas A&M B12 #3 Big 12 Title
4-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .443 B Rating: 12.292 C Rating: 10.322 AP: 17 BCS: 17
Baylor came in 4-1 and in the Top 25 both in polls and C Ratings, and A&M blew them out of the water, sending the Aggies shooting up the ratings. Now Iowa State serves as a warm-up for Missouri.
12 Notre Dame   BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: #10 A Rat: .429 B Rating: 9.677 C Rating: 8.054 – –
A drop for idle hands, and Michigan losing doesn’t help. Will they start getting the respect they deserve after beating one-loss USC?
13 Nebraska B10 #3 Big 10 Title
5-1 LW: #18 A Rat: .526 B Rating: 8.335 C Rating: 6.871 AP: 13 BCS: 13
Idle hands work the other way for Nebraska, as Washington gets poll respect and Ohio State beats a good Illinois team.
14 Virginia Tech ACC #2 Big 12 Title
6-1 LW: #33 A Rat: .574 B Rating: 8.098 C Rating: 6.292 AP: 16 BCS: 12
Heading into last week V-Tech was only two spots ahead of Wake Forest, but you wouldn’t know the way they blew them out of the water. Now they’re the big Tech on campus and control their own Coastal destiny.
15 Houston USA #1 C-USA Title
6-0 LW: #20 A Rat: .729 B Rating: 9.345 C Rating: 6.245 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Houston shoots up the rankings without even playing; losses by other teams help, but so does UTEP blowing out Tulane and East Carolina beating Memphis handily.
16 West Virginia BST #1 Big East Title
5-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .587 B Rating: 7.884 C Rating: 5.996 AP: 11 BCS: 15
West Virginia drops for idle hands, as they prep for a showdown in the Carrier Dome.
17 Penn State B10 #4 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: #19 A Rat: .594 B Rating: 6.828 C Rating: 5.729 Coaches: 22 BCS: 21
Gotta do better than that against mediocre Purdue, but a win is a win. But they better get better against Northwestern before Illinois – and certainly before Nebraska – come to town.
18 Toledo MAC #1 MAC Title
4-3 LW: #26 A Rat: .343 B Rating: 6.160 C Rating: 5.012 – –
Bowling Green is a respectable win, but this climb into the Top 25 is more about other teams losing. Two of their losses were close and on the road and the third was against Boise State. Aren’t they worthy of consideration?
19 Georgia Tech ACC #3 ACC Title
6-1 LW: #11 A Rat: .576 B Rating: 7.067 C Rating: 4.844 AP: 20 BCS: 22
Tight loss to a half-decent Virginia team, but come on. The biggest drop always comes with the first loss.
20 South Carolina SEC #3 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #23 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 6.532 C Rating: 4.347 AP: 14 BCS: 14
Tight win against a mediocre Mississippi State team, but other teams outright lost. Now they catch Tennessee reeling.
21 Arizona State P12 #3 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #13 A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.593 C Rating: 3.969 AP: 24 Coaches: 25
And the Devils lose every single spot they gained last week after getting blown out by Oregon. They could leave the Top 25 for idle hands, but perhaps a bad Colorado team can get them back on track.
22 Rutgers BST #2 Big East Title
5-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .555 B Rating: 4.199 C Rating: 3.266 – –
A tight pull-out against a mediocre Navy team, and they might as well not have played at all. Now Louisville will serve as prep for a huge clash with West Virginia.
23 Kansas State B12 #4 2010 TCU
6-0 LW: #34 A Rat: .661 B Rating: 4.634 C Rating: 3.133 AP: 12 BCS: 11
You’ll have to pardon me for not believing in a team that beat FCS Eastern Kentucky by 3 and whose only win by more than 7 came against Kent State, but the Cardiac Cats do keep winning, and several teams losing finally put them in the Top 25.
24 TCU MWC #2 MWC Title
4-2 LW: #25 A Rat: .456 B Rating: 5.126 C Rating: 3.078 – –
Other teams losing + Arkansas also on bye = actually gaining a spot. But they better blow New Mexico out of the water.
25 Arkansas SEC #4 SEC Title
5-1 LW: #24 A Rat: .567 B Rating: 4.536 C Rating: 2.534 AP: 10 BCS: 9
Swap places with TCU because New Mexico lost to a mediocre-to-bad Nevada team. Now they’re back in action against Ole Miss.


31 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #30 Texas (was #22), #34 Illinois (was #17), #51 Baylor (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Georgia, #27 Southern Miss, #28 Florida State*, #29 Missouri*, #30 Texas, #31 Washington, #32 Miami (FL)*, #33 Michigan State*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 USC*, #37 Utah State, #38 Iowa*, #39 Temple*, #41 Ohio*, #42 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #34 Illinois, #36 North Carolina, #40 Tennessee, #44 Florida International, #48 Wake Forest, #51 Baylor, #61 Pittsburgh, #68 Western Michigan, #76 Duke

Bottom 10: #111 Central Michigan, #112 Buffalo, #113 Idaho, #114 Akron, #115 UNLV, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 UAB, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Oklahoma State @ Missouri, 9am PT, FX

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 6

October 15, 2011 – 6:26 am

Who’s the best team in college football: Alabama, LSU, or Oklahoma? It’s hard to argue with Alabama’s score ratio, with two shutouts and at least doubling the score of every opponent they’ve played, including Arkansas and Florida. Most people seem to have Oklahoma a bit behind the two SEC schools, and that might be appropriate; they’ve had two ten-point victories and Florida State hasn’t played up to expectations. It helps that the SEC teams haven’t had a bye already. Of course, one thing you can say about the BCS: if these really are the three best teams, the differences between them will be decided on the field.

All full-rating reports will be in PDF form from now on. I waited all week for an opinion on what to do with the extra spots in the table and didn’t really get one. I’m using the polls this week, but I reserve the right to change it later. As you can see by the fact the rankings match the AP Poll in the top five with only LSU and Alabama flipped at the top, the rankings are starting to fall into place. In fact, we only have one unbeaten team outside the Top 25; lineal title or no, there’s no reason to trust a K-State team that eked out a 10-7 win over FCS Eastern Kentucky, blew out godawful Kent State, then eked out wins over good-but-not-great teams with only scandal-ridden #50 Miami (FL) coming on the road. Thus, the colored area to the right of each team is now active, indicating what each team is playing for.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC #1 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .901 B Rating: 43.824 C Rating: 38.240 AP: 2 Coaches: 3
Another week, another big win for the Tide. Ole Miss and Tennessee will be their remaining two warm-ups for the huge clash with LSU.
2 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
6-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .836 B Rating: 35.396 C Rating: 38.240 AP: 1 Coaches: 2
It didn’t matter that the punter got a TD called back for taunting the way LSU handled Florida, and now Tennessee and Auburn will be their tune-ups for the clash with Bama.
3 Oklahoma B12 #1 BCS Title
5-0 LW: #6 A Rat: .799 B Rating: 30.465 C Rating: 26.545 AP: 3 Coaches: 1
While people have been forgetting about the preseason favorites as they’re blinded by the SEC’s brilliance, the Sooners have actually been playing closer to expectations recently. The blowout over Texas is their best win yet.
4 Wisconsin B10 #1 BCS Title
5-0 LW: #4 A Rat: .900 B Rating: 25.911 C Rating: 21.614 AP: 4 Coaches: 4
Wisconsin moves into conference pole position without even playing (and without Michigan losing), thanks in part to the Huskers finally getting the first Big Ten win the Badgers denied them.
5 Boise State MWC #1 BCS Title
5-0 LW: #10 A Rat: .806 B Rating: 22.526 C Rating: 19.320 AP: 5 Coaches: 6
The Broncos shoot up the board after putting the hurt on Fresno and finally start Mountain West play. If they play in that league the way they played in the WAC, they’ll pick up right where they left off busting the BCS.
6 Michigan B10 #2 BCS Title
5-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .825 B Rating: 21.762 C Rating: 18.622 AP: 11 Coaches: 10
Northwestern was only the second opponent Michigan had allowed more than 10 points to all year, and they’re no Notre Dame. And while rival Sparty (#53) doesn’t deserve the poll respect they’re getting, neither will they be a pushover.
7 Stanford P12 #1 BCS Title
5-0 LW: #5 A Rat: .879 B Rating: 21.748 C Rating: 17.876 AP: 7 Coaches: 5
Welcome to the Pac-12, Buffaloes: Colorado’s A Rating is so unbelievably pathetic that despite blowing them out, the Cardinal might as well have been off this week.
8 Oklahoma State B12 #2 BCS Title
5-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .714 B Rating: 18.365 C Rating: 15.375 AP: 6 Coaches: 7
The Cowboys made up for the lost time of their bye week, blowing Kansas out of the water. But when it comes to football, Texas – hungry to bounce back from the Sooner loss – is no Kansas.
9 Clemson ACC #1 Prncton/Yale
6-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .732 B Rating: 13.756 C Rating: 11.341 AP: 8 Coaches: 8
Clemson has to blow out a Boston College team as godawful as they are, so after only beating them 36-14, they slip ahead of the clash with Maryland.
10 Notre Dame   BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: #13 A Rat: .429 B Rating: 11.688 C Rating: 10.334 – –
Air Force is mediocre and the Domers weren’t THAT dominant, so why the jump? Well, 26 points is 26 points, and Purdue’s blowout of admittedly-horrible Minnesota helps. Now they wait a week before facing rival USC.
11 Georgia Tech ACC #2 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #9 A Rat: .711 B Rating: 11.198 C Rating: 8.850 AP: 12 Coaches: 12
Maryland is way too mediocre-to-bad (fashionably and on the field) for G-Tech to keep them that close. Now they have to go on the road to Virginia.
12 Oregon P12 #2 ’09 Boise St.
4-1 LW: #29 A Rat: .589 B Rating: 9.848 C Rating: 8.417 AP: 9 Coaches: 9
The Ducks blew out a good Cal team, more than making up for a win by only 15 over an Arizona team that’s now without their coach. But now comes a huge clash with Arizona State.
13 Arizona State P12 #3 Pac-12 Title
5-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .559 B Rating: 7.193 C Rating: 6.109 AP: 18 Coaches: 20
Big win over a half-decent Utah team sends the Devils up the rankings, but a road trip to Eugene will be much tougher.
14 West Virginia BST #1 Big East Title
5-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .587 B Rating: 7.558 C Rating: 5.801 AP: 13 Coaches: 16
The Mountaineers blew out a not-so-great UConn team to start conference play on the right foot. Now for an off week before a nationally-televised road trip to a Syracuse team that’s better than the Huskies.
15 Rutgers BST #2 Big East Title
4-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .555 B Rating: 6.056 C Rating: 5.335 – –
A blowout by a good Pitt team sends the Knights up the rankings. Now to host a possible future conference mate in Navy.
16 Texas A&M B12 #3 Big 12 Title
3-2 LW: #18 A Rat: .389 B Rating: 6.683 C Rating: 5.122 AP: 21 Coaches: 23
A&M finally finished a game for once, escaping against rival Texas Tech. Now comes a huge clash against Baylor.
17 Illinois B10 #3 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #19 A Rat: .699 B Rating: 5.981 C Rating: 4.961 AP: 16 Coaches: 15
Blowout win over Indiana, and now a desperate Ohio State team comes to Champaign.
18 Nebraska B10 #4 Big 10 Title
5-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .526 B Rating: 6.419 C Rating: 4.894 AP: 16 Coaches: 15
Nebraska finally gives the realigned teams a conference win against a team once the cream of the conference, but you gotta do better than that against a 3-3 team. Perhaps they will against woeful Minnesota a week from now.
19 Penn State B10 #5 Big 10 Title
5-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .590 B Rating: 5.419 C Rating: 4.688 SBNBlog: 25 Coaches: 25
Relatively pedestrian effort, even against a good Iowa team, causes the Nittany Lions to slip. But Purdue should be easier to beat.
20 Houston USA #1 C-USA Title
6-0 LW: #28 A Rat: .729 B Rating: 6.793 C Rating: 4.061 AP: 25 Coaches: 22
Blowout win over East Carolina just what the doctor ordered to propel the Cougars into the Top 25 after all their other FBS games other than North Texas were close (and even UNT scored 20 more points than the Pirates).
21 Baylor B12 #4 Big 12 Title
4-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .554 B Rating: 4.694 C Rating: 3.336 AP: 20 Coaches: 24
Blowout over a decent Iowa State team bounces the Bears back from the K-State loss and sends them rocketing into the Top 25. But Texas A&M will be dangerous.
22 Texas B12 #5 Big 12 Title
4-1 LW: #11 A Rat: .505 B Rating: 4.669 C Rating: 3.297 AP: 22 Coaches: 21
As good as Oklahoma is, that was absolutely embarassing. But it doesn’t get any easier with Oklahoma State coming to Austin.
23 South Carolina SEC #3 SEC Title
5-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .566 B Rating: 5.441 C Rating: 3.270 AP: 15 Coaches: 13
Kentucky is godawful, so even blowing them out doesn’t help the Gamecocks resist other teams’ hard charges. But with Tennessee losing, is the way clear for the Fighting Spurriers to repeat in the East?
24 Arkansas* SEC #4 SEC Title
5-1 LW: #40 A Rat: .567 B Rating: 3.803 C Rating: 2.849 AP: 10 Coaches: 11
Still don’t trust a team that lets Troy get within ten and whose only impressive win had come over New Mexico, but they proved their bona fides against Auburn. Now they slip for the bye before heading to Mississippi.
25 TCU MWC #2 MWC Title
4-2 LW: #27 A Rat: .456 B Rating: 4.718 C Rating: 2.792 – –
Bounced back from the SMU loss with a big win over San Diego State. But not only will they slip again for the bye, they’re unlikely to get back on right away no matter how badly they beat woeful New Mexico.

35 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

2010 TCU title: #34 Kansas State (5-0), .676, 1.804, .603 (only unbeaten team not on Top 25)

Off Top 25: #30 North Carolina (was #25), #31 Tennessee (was #16), #32 Washington (was #24), #37 Pittsburgh (was #22), #45 San Diego State (was #23)

Watch List: #26 Toledo, #27 Southern Miss*, #28 Georgia*, #29 Western Michigan, #30 North Carolina, #31 Tennessee, #32 Washington, #33 Virginia Tech, #34 Kansas State, #35 Wake Forest

Other Positive B Ratings: #36 Utah State*, #37 Pittsburgh, #39 Duke, #40 Ohio, #41 Florida International* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #42 Iowa, #43 Florida, #45 San Diego State, #46 Texas Tech, #61 California

Bottom 10: #111 Kentucky, #112 Louisiana-Monroe, #113 UNLV, #114 New Mexico, #115 Florida Atlantic, #116 Idaho, #117 Tulane, #118 Akron, #119 UAB, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Arizona State @ Oregon, 7:15pm PT, ESPN

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 5

October 6, 2011 – 10:00 am

An interesting thought based on an oddity of the first five weeks. What poetic justice would it be if every team that changed conferences this year went completely winless in their new conference until the Colorado-Utah game at the end of the year?

Something new this week: The full ratings are now available in PDF form. I can’t guarantee this will be the case every week, as that will depend on where I calculate the ratings, but it should be the case most weeks. The two “extra” slots are showing B Points this week, but I’m not liking it, and I’m running a poll about some other options. If you have another idea, leave it in the comments, and enjoy the chaos of this week’s rankings.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC #1 SEC Leader
5-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .882 B Points: 40.690 B Rating: 35.869 C Rating: 31.234
Bama leapfrogs LSU with the win over Florida – for now. But with such a huge lead, they might keep it even if LSU beats the Gators.
2 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
5-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .830 B Points 29.354 B Rating: 24.368 C Rating: 21.419
The Tigers have a substantial lead as well, though Kentucky wasn’t on par with the others. But now they get the Gators.
3 Michigan B10 #1 Big 10 Lead
5-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .847 B Points: 25.691 B Rating: 21.769 C Rating: 19.298
The impressive win over Minnesota was their best yet – but it was Minnesota, and Northwestern’s not that much better. What will it mean to escape Wisconsin until the conference title game?
4 Wisconsin B10 #2 In Top 25
5-0 LW: #10 A Rat: .900 B Points: 23.298 B Rating: 20.969 C Rating: 18.015
What a performance against the Huskers, proving they deserve the respect they’re getting. But expect them to drop for a bye week.
5 Stanford P12 #1 Pac-12 Lead
4-0 LW: #6 A Rat: .867 B Points: 23.958 B Rating: 20.774 C Rating: 17.629
Big blowout victory over UCLA. Will Colorado share the same fate?
6 Oklahoma B12 #1 Big 12 Lead
4-0 LW: #14 A Rat: .788 B Points: 25.002 B Rating: 19.700 C Rating: 17.043
With early-season volatility, a big blowout, even over Ball State, is just what the doctor ordered. But the Longhorns are no Ball State.
7 Clemson ACC #1 Prncton/Yale
5-0 LW: #18 A Rat: .717 B Points: 21.674 B Rating: 15.535 C Rating: 13.756
Clemson didn’t just defend their title against the Hokies, they blew them out of the water, and now they’re top ten in the polls. Is the way clear to dominate the ACC – and for the ACC to be relevant again?
8 Oklahoma State B12 #2 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .692 B Points: 19.114 B Rating: 13.232 C Rating: 11.095
The Cowboys stood pat despite the idle hands, thanks to a blowout win by Tulsa over North Texas.
9 Georgia Tech ACC #2 In Top 25
5-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .730 B Points: 18.116 B Rating: 13.219 C Rating: 11.075
A little too close for comfort against a mediocre NC State team, and now G-Tech has to worry about October 29.
10 Boise State MWC #1 Non-BCS Lead
4-0 LW: #13 A Rat: .772 B Points: 15.505 B Rating: 11.976 C Rating: 9.979
The Broncos got their revenge for last year’s loss. Perhaps they can continue to improve their MoV against another ex-conference mate that will soon be again.
11 Texas B12 #3 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #16 A Rat: .751 B Points: 14.999 B Rating: 11.263 C Rating: 8.670
Blowout win over Iowa State + the Cyclones’ first loss = big jump in the ratings. But Oklahoma is definitely no slouch.
12 Nebraska B10 #3 In Top 25
4-1 LW: #5 A Rat: .510 B Points: 15.030 B Rating: 7.666 C Rating: 6.908
Wisconsin’s sterling A Rating makes the Huskers our first team with a loss. They will bounce back, but watch out with the Buckeyes coming to town.
13 Notre Dame   In Top 25
3-2 LW: #20 A Rat: .376 B Points: 18.151 B Rating: 6.831 C Rating: 6.291
A two-loss team already? Pitt’s win outweighs USF’s loss. A blowout win over Purdue doesn’t mean the Domers are back, but Stanford is the only team on their level the rest of the way.
14 West Virginia* BST #1 Big East Lead
4-1 LW: #59 A Rat: .546 B Points: 13.697 B Rating: 7.480 C Rating: 6.022
From the second page to the conference lead? Blowout win over Bowling Green coupled with a blowout win by Maryland. And they’re only now starting conference play against 2-3 UConn.
15 Penn State B10 #4 In Top 25
4-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .538 B Points: 8.336 B Rating: 4.482 C Rating: 4.189
Why does Penn State move up so much after a tight game against lowly Indiana? Alabama’s blowout win certainly helps, as does a number of losses by teams ahead of them.
16 Tennessee SEC #3 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .521 B Points: 10.799 B Rating: 5.630 C Rating: 3.982
Blowout win, but over lowly Buffalo. Losses by teams ahead of them allow them to move up a spot. But Georgia will be more of a challenge, and then comes an onslaught of LSU, Bama, and South Carolina.
17 South Carolina SEC #4 In Top 25
4-1 LW: #11 A Rat: .496 B Points: 8.250 B Rating: 4.093 C Rating: 3.170
The Gamecocks don’t fall as far as other teams that lost because they managed to battle Auburn to the bitter end. Perhaps now they can bounce back against Kentucky.
18 Texas A&M B12 #4 In Top 25
2-2 LW: #12 A Rat: .336 B Points: 13.783 B Rating: 4.633 C Rating: 3.152
Tough loss to Arkansas, but they battled the Razorbacks until the end. Still in the polls, barely. Perhaps they can get back on the winning track against another rival in Texas Tech.
19 Illinois B10 #5 In Top 25
5-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .688 B Points: 5.211 B Rating: 3.584 C Rating: 3.124
Beat Northwestern by only a field goal, so why the relatively large jump? Arizona State got a substantial win that helped Illinois’ strength of schedule but not so much their own C Rating due to Oregon State’s weakness.
20 Rutgers BST #2 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .491 B Points: 7.034 B Rating: 3.451 C Rating: 2.911
Wins are wins, and teams ahead of them weren’t that great. But now the team that upset USF comes to town.
21 Arizona State P12 #2 In Top 25
4-1 LW: #19 A Rat: .516 B Points: 6.651 B Rating: 3.431 C Rating: 2.697
Substantial win, it’s just that Oregon State is absolutely atrocious. Will Utah help them more?
22 Pittsburgh* BST #3 In Top 25
3-2 LW: #60 A Rat: .360 B Points: 9.871 B Rating: 3.553 C Rating: 2.484
Pitt didn’t just beat South Florida, they blew them out. This isn’t the team that lost to Iowa and beat Maine by only 6. Now to prove their bona fides against Rutgers.
23 San Diego State MWC #2 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #27 A Rat: .411 B Points: 7.264 B Rating: 2.983 C Rating: 2.424
Michigan continues to be a good team to lose to, Army just got a blowout win over Tulane, and losses by teams above them outweighs idle hands. They’ll settle who’s second-best in the conference with TCU on Saturday.
24 Washington P12 #3 In Top 25
4-1 LW: #33 A Rat: .468 B Points: 5.003 B Rating: 2.342 C Rating: 2.007
Washington has flirted with relevance before, but they’re five games in and Nebraska is their only loss. Colorado will serve as a tuneup for a clash with Stanford that could decide the North.
25 North Carolina ACC #3 In Top 25
4-1 LW: #31 A Rat: .517 B Points: 4.072 B Rating: 2.107 C Rating: 1.657
Big win over East Carolina. The loss to G-Tech will be tough to overcome, but they look to have bounced back from NCAA trouble last year.


33 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

2009 Boise State title: #29 Oregon (3-1), .535, 2.108, 1.202

2010 TCU title: #30 Kansas State (4-0), .684, 1.833, .934

Off Top 25: #26 Florida (was #9), #27 TCU (was #22), #29 Oregon (was #24), #31 Virginia Tech (was #15), #49 South Florida (was #4)

Unbeaten teams not on Top 25: #28 Houston, #30 Kansas State, #38 Texas Tech (all in positive B points, Texas Tech not in positive C)

Rest of Watch List: #26 Florida (4-1), #27 TCU (3-2), #29 Oregon (3-1), #31 Virginia Tech (4-1)

Other Positive B Ratings: #32 Western Michigan* (3-2), #33 Toledo* (2-3), #34 Ohio* (4-1), #35 Baylor (3-1), #36 Iowa (3-1), #37 Wake Forest (3-1), #41 California (3-1), #46 Duke (3-2) (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #43 Utah, #45 Navy, #49 South Florida, #51 Florida International, #53 Iowa State, #69 Temple, #84 Bowling Green

Bottom 10: #111 Central Michigan, #112 North Texas, #113 Florida Atlantic, #114 Louisiana-Monroe, #115 Idaho, #116 New Mexico, #117 UAB, #118 Tulane, #119 Akron, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Oklahoma v. Texas, 9am PT, ABC

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 4

October 1, 2011 – 4:28 am

How much longer will I be doing the college football rankings? They eat up a lot of time at a time of year when I have a bunch of other projects in the pipeline, the last two years at least I didn’t post post-bowl rankings on Da Blog, there’s an increasing feeling we’ll get a plus-one in 2014 (thus sapping much of the reason for having the rankings), last year I didn’t even bother to post full ranking posts, and both this year and last I didn’t start posting rankings when I intended to. Although in this year’s case that’s because I wanted to get to the two posts I pushed through the past couple days first.

I would have released the first rankings Week 3, although there would have been a few teams only connected through USC at that point. You can still read the Week 3 rankings for your convenience. I finally fixed one of the two longstanding problems I’ve had with the rankings this year, concerning the wonky effect conference ranking has on the final rankings. C Ratings are now calculated by subtracting one-tenth the difference between the B Rating and the average of the team’s opponents’ B Ratings. As conferences are thus now unimportant, conference ratings aren’t listed on the RTF, but conferences themselves are still included for completeness and reference. The first round of conference realignment seems an opportune time to push through this change.

(The other change I’d like to make – making I-AA teams equivalent to an A Rating of 0 for B Point purposes win or lose – probably isn’t something the version of Access I have can handle.)

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC #1 ’06 Boise St.
4-0 LW: #5 A Rat: .812 B Rating: 19.778 C Rating: 17.760 – –
All three I-A teams they’ve faced so far are/were Top 25 in the polls, and the closest any of them came was 13 points. Is it any wonder the polls and C Ratings agree who’s No. 1? Imagine how scary they’ll be when Jordan Jefferson comes back.
2 Alabama SEC #2 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .884 B Rating: 20.664 C Rating: 17.643 – –
Only Penn State has gotten within 20 points. If they can get past Florida, November 5th will be a heck of a game.
3 Michigan B10 #1 Big 10 Lead
4-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .809 B Rating: 15.349 C Rating: 13.569 – –
What Wisconsin-Nebraska game? Only Notre Dame got within three touchdowns. Have the Wolverines finally shaken their recent doldrums? Might they even beat the Buckeyes?
4 South Florida BST #1 Big East Lead
4-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .779 B Rating: 13.611 C Rating: 12.058 – –
Obviously they’ll fall after losing to Pitt, but before then only Notre Dame had gotten within four touchdowns. Looks like the apple doesn’t fall far from the coaching tree.
5 Nebraska B10 #2 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #18 A Rat: .752 B Rating: 12.842 C Rating: 11.296 – –
Looks like the polls were right about the Huskers coming into their new conference with guns ablazin’. No one has gotten within 13 points. Look out, Badgers.
6 Stanford P12 #2 Pac-12 Lead
3-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .893 B Rating: 13.570 C Rating: 11.083 – –
Oregon’s national championship overshadowed Stanford’s great year, but the Cardinal seem to have picked up right where they left off.
7 Georgia Tech ACC #1 ACC Leader
4-0 LW: #4 A Rat: .759 B Rating: 11.881 C Rating: 10.166 – –
With only North Carolina getting within four touchdowns, might the Yellowjackets attract national attention to the ACC?
8 Oklahoma State B12 #1 Big 12 Lead
4-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .692 B Rating: 11.619 C Rating: 9.812 – –
Oklahoma State is auditioning for the Pac-16. Only A&M got within three touchdowns. Don’t look ahead to the Texas game against the Jayhawks.
9 Florida SEC #3 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #52 A Rat: .877 B Rating: 10.754 C Rating: 7.895 – –
Great job blowing Kentucky out of the water. But watch out: now Bama comes into the Swamp.
10 Wisconsin B10 #3 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #9 A Rat: .919 B Rating: 9.878 C Rating: 7.768 – –
Never scored or won by less than 35 or allowed more than 17 = fantastic score ratio. But expect that to change when Nebraska comes into Camp Randall.
11 South Carolina SEC #4 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #33 A Rat: .673 B Rating: 7.979 C Rating: 6.885 – –
Big win over a decent Vanderbilt team. Now, can the Gamecocks prove they deserve their Top 10 poll ranking against the defending national champions?
12 Texas A&M B12 #2 In Top 25
2-1 LW: #2 A Rat: .497 B Rating: 7.913 C Rating: 6.068 – –
The Aggies are trying to leave the Big 12 with a bang. Big wins in their first two games and a one-point loss to Oklahoma State make them the top-ranked one-loss team. Big test coming against rival Arkansas.
13 Boise State MWC #1 Non-BCS Lead
3-0 LW: #10 A Rat: .752 B Rating: 7.102 C Rating: 5.696 – –
Boise State is off to a rollicking start their first year in the Mountain West – and once and future conference mate Nevada is starting off rockily.
14 Oklahoma B12 #3 In Top 25
3-0 LW: #6 A Rat: .733 B Rating: 6.621 C Rating: 5.470 – –
Ten-point wins over Florida State and Missouri, neither in positive B Points, suggest maybe the Sooners aren’t quite the national championship favorites everyone thought they’d be. But they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
15 Virginia Tech ACC #2 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .826 B Rating: 6.824 C Rating: 4.877 – –
The battle of the Techs could be huge this year – but the clash with Clemson for the Princeton-Yale belt may be the biggest early season clash in the ACC.
16 Texas B12 #4 In Top 25
3-0 LW: #14 A Rat: .730 B Rating: 6.618 C Rating: 4.846 – –
The Longhorn Network has painted a target on the Longhorns’ backs for the whole Big 12 to aim at, but the Horns seem to have bounced back from last year’s doldrums.
17 Tennessee SEC #5 In Top 25
2-1 LW: #16 A Rat: .422 B Rating: 4.555 C Rating: 4.569 – –
No shame in losing to Florida after two wins by at least three touchdowns to start the year.
18 Clemson ACC #3 Prncton/Yale
4-0 LW: #27 A Rat: .662 B Rating: 4.947 C Rating: 3.962 – –
Wins over Florida State and I-AA Wofford just a little too close for comfort. But how huge is the showdown with V-Tech for determining the direction of the ACC?
19 Arizona State* P12 #2 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #44 A Rat: .470 B Rating: 3.367 C Rating: 3.064 – –
Big win over a USC team ranked in the AP poll, but admittedly not bowl-eligible, proved their bona fides. Even better? Divisional arrangement means they skate Stanford until conference title game – and their division title may not come with a USC asterisk like some thought.
20 Notre Dame   In Top 25
2-2 LW: #24 A Rat: .283 B Rating: 2.723 C Rating: 3.003 – –
Once upon a time, the Domers would be the top-ranked two-loss team because of the effect of not having a conference to dilute their rating. Now it’s because their two losses were close to teams ahead of them, while their wins aren’t to slouches either. What Brian Kelly hot seat?
21 Penn State B10 #4 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .501 B Rating: 2.874 C Rating: 2.929 – –
Blowing out Eastern Michigan just what the doctor ordered entering Big Ten play.
22 TCU MWC #2 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #22 A Rat: .537 B Rating: 4.653 C Rating: 2.748 – –
Whaddaya know, it’s the two teams that stayed in non-BCS conferences that top the Utah schools in the rankings. TCU has bounced back from the Baylor loss with consistent blowout performances.
23 Illinois B10 #5 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #26 A Rat: .724 B Rating: 2.913 C Rating: 2.581 – –
Arizona State and Western Michigan wins too close for comfort, and Arkansas State only other I-A foe faced, but wins are wins. A good win over rival Northwestern should prove their bona fides.
24 Oregon P12 #3 ’09 Boise St.
3-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .534 B Rating: 3.484 C Rating: 2.542 – –
Blowout win over Arizona, but Arizona stinks. California will provide a much bigger test, but Arizona State looms after that.
25 Rutgers BST #2 In Top 25
2-1 LW: #36 A Rat: .470 B Rating: 2.614 C Rating: 2.362 – –
When’s the last time we talked about Rutgers? 48-0 drubbing of NC Central and double-digit win over Ohio overcomes NC Central being I-A and a narrow loss to North Carolina.

35 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

2010 TCU title: #30 Baylor (3-0), .747, 1.283, .890

Off Top 25: #27 San Diego State (was #11), #31 North Carolina (was #20), #35 Florida International (was #17), #37 California (was #25), #41 USC (was #12), #49 Ohio (was #13), #59 West Virginia (was #19) (yes, freakin’ Florida International would have been Top 20 last week!)

Unbeaten teams not on Top 25: #28 Houston, #29 Kansas State, #30 Baylor*, #32 Iowa State, #61 Texas Tech (all in positive B points, Texas Tech not in positive C)

Rest of Watch List: #26 Utah (2-1), #27 San Diego State (3-1), #31 North Carolina (3-1)

Other Positive B Ratings (all 3-1 unless otherwise noted): #33 Washington*, #34 Temple*, #35 Florida International, #36 Wake Forest (2-1), #37 California, #38 Iowa, #40 Navy (2-1), #42 Bowling Green, #44 Duke* (2-2) (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #41 USC, #43 Miami (FL), #45 Missouri, #46 Louisville, #49 Ohio, #55 Wyoming, #56 Vanderbilt, #58 Florida State, #59 West Virginia, #60 Pittsburgh, #68 Washington State

Bottom 10: #111 Army, #112 Florida Atlantic, #113 Tulane, #114 Idaho, #115 New Mexico, #116 UAB, #117 Louisiana-Monroe, #118 Central Michigan, #119 Akron, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Alabama @ Florida, 5pm PT, CBS

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

Who SHOULD Be Going to Which Bowls?

December 5, 2010 – 6:30 pm

The bowls if selections were based on my C Ratings. Bowl tie-ins often reflect my attempt to synthesize the (often not entirely in agreement) bowl selection orders given by Wikipedia and CBS Sports, although the role of the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in the WAC selection process, given how uncertain Wikipedia remains about it and the WAC selection rules seemingly being written before its involvement, remains perplexing. Teams in parenthesis are the teams that would be selected with Auburn and Oregon still going to the national championship game. (It’s always been a problem that strength of schedule takes the form strictly of opponents’ A Rating which itself doesn’t take into account strength of schedule, allowing inflated ratings from weak conferences, but it became really apparent this year.)

Despite its role in preventing a playoff, I actually feel a little sentimental towards the Rose Bowl’s Big 10/Pac-10 matchup this year; of all the years the Rose Bowl would be forced to pick a non-BCS team, it would be a year where the Pac-10 had a very, very strong second choice in Stanford! This isn’t a year like 2007 where the Rose Bowl would have blindly chosen an Illinois team markedly inferior to its alternatives.

For reasons I’ve covered before, don’t expect the Golden Bowl selections until late in the week at best. For the record, the non-BCS bowls in order of ideal prestige are now: Capitol One, Cotton, Outback, Alamo, Chick-fil-A, Gator, Champs Sports/Insight, Holiday, Sun/Texas, MAACO/Meineke Car Care, Music City, Liberty, Poinsettia, Independence, and so on. With Arizona State likely not bowl-eligible for playing two FCS opponents and finishing 6-6, Tennessee is the only bowl-eligible team not going to a bowl.

All times Eastern.

New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque, NM

MWC #5

WAC (#3?)

December 18 

BYU

Western Michigan

2 PM 

ESPN 

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl

Boise, ID

MAC #3

WAC (#2?)

December 18

Miami (OH)

Fresno State

5:30

ESPN

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans, LA

C-USA #5

Sun Belt #1

December 18

SMU

Florida International

9 PM

ESPN

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl

St. Petersburg, FL

BE #6/SB #3

C-USA #4

December 21

Syracuse/USF

Southern Miss

8 PM

ESPN

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Las Vegas, NV

MWC #1

Pac-10 #5

December 22

Air Force

Toledo

8 PM

ESPN

Poinsettia Bowl

San Diego, CA

MWC #2

Navy/WAC

December 23

San Diego State

Navy

8 PM

ESPN

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Honolulu, HI

C-USA #2?

Hawaii/WAC #4?

December 24

Ohio

Hawaii

8 PM

ESPN

Little Caesars Bowl

Detroit, MI

B10 #8/SB

MAC #1

December 26

Middle Tenn. St.

Northern Illinois

8:30

ESPN

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

ACC #7/SB #5

MWC #3/SB #5

December 27

Maryland

Utah

5 PM

ESPN2

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

ACC #3

Big East #2/ND

December 28

NC State

West Virginia

6:30

ESPN

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #5

December 28

Nebraska

Michigan

10 PM

ESPN

Military Bowl

Washington, DC

ACC #8/MAC #4

C-USA #6

December 29

Boston College

East Carolina

2:30

ESPN

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

December 29

Kansas State

Penn State

6 PM

ESPN

Valero Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

Big 12 #3

Pac-10 #2

December 29

Missouri

Arizona

9:15

ESPN

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

C-USA #3

Army/MWC #4

December 30

Tulsa

Army

Noon

ESPN

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

Big 12 #7

Big East #4

December 30

Baylor

Louisville/Pittsburgh

3:20

ESPN

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

ACC #6

SEC #7?

December 30

North Carolina

Florida

6:40

ESPN

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

Big 12 #5

Pac-10 #3

December 30

Texas A&M

Wash/Arizona St

10 PM

ESPN

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

ACC #5

Big East #3

December 31

Clemson

Pittsburgh/ND

Noon

ESPN

Hyundai Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

ACC #4

Pac-10 #4

December 31

Miami (FL)

ND/Washington

2 PM

CBS

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

C-USA #1

SEC #8?

December 31

Central Florida

Mississippi State

3:30

ESPN

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

ACC #2

SEC #5

December 31

Florida State

LSU

7:30

ESPN

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

Big 12 #8

Big 10 #7

January 1

Texas Tech

Northwestern

Noon

ESPNU

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

Big 10 #3

SEC #3/4 (East)

January 1

Michigan State

South Carolina

1 PM

ABC

Capitol One Bowl

Orlando, FL

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

January 1

Iowa

Alabama

1 PM

ESPN

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

Big 10 #4

SEC #6

January 1

Illinois

Georgia

1:30

ESPN2

Rose Bowl Game pres. by VIZIO

Pasadena, CA

Big 10 #1/BCS

Pac-10 #1/BCS

January 1

Ohio State

Oregon (Boise/Stan)

5 PM

ESPN

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

Big 12 #1/BCS

BCS

January 1

Oklahoma

Connecticut

8:30

ESPN

Discover Orange Bowl

Miami, FL

ACC #1/BCS

BCS

January 3

Virginia Tech

Wisconsin

8:30

ESPN

Allstate Sugar Bowl

New Orleans, LA

SEC #1/BCS

BCS

January 4

Auburn (TCU)

Stanford (Boise St)

8:30

ESPN

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Mobile, AL

MAC #2

Sun Belt #2

January 6

Temple

Troy

8 PM

ESPN

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Arlington, TX

Big 12 #2

SEC #3/4 (West)

January 7

Oklahoma State

Arkansas

8 PM

FOX

BBVA Compass Bowl

Birmingham, AL

Big East #5

SEC #9/SB #4

January 8

USF/Louisville

Kentucky

Noon

ESPN

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

San Francisco, CA

P10 #6/ACC #9

WAC (#1?)/ACC #9

January 9

Georgia Tech

Nevada

9 PM

ESPN

BCS National Championship Game

Glendale, AZ

BCS #1

BCS #2

January 10

Boise St (Auburn)

TCU (Oregon)

8:30

ESPN

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 13

December 1, 2010 – 9:07 pm

As usual, people are quick to overreact to a single loss. #2 Boise State’s loss to #16 Nevada was an OT loss on the road to a good team, so they don’t slip much. Enough to fall back behind #1 TCU, but not any further.

It did, however, greatly clear up the national championship picture. TCU is now the only potential interlocutor or fly in the ointment for a #3 Oregon-#7 Auburn national championship game. Funnily, Auburn may have a greater chance of being left out of the National Championship Game if they lose in the SEC Title Game than if they had lost in the Iron Bowl, and not because of the opponent or the time in and of itself, but because the polls would balk at sending Auburn to the National Title Game without winning their conference. 2005, anyone? If Auburn does go to the national championship game without winning their conference, it will be one more point of the non-BCS conferences against the BCS… but TCU will probably be told, “Take your whining and stick it in your bag and carry it with you to the Big East.”

Me, I’m just rooting for Auburn to lose and TCU to make the National Title Game just so #5 Stanford can go to the Rose Bowl…

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • This week’s ratings reflect corrections to my database for no fewer than three games I had attributed to the wrong team, affecting, among others, the ratings for #8 Oklahoma, #15 Arkansas, #18 Iowa, and the Big Ten in general. (One of the games was the Iowa State-Oklahoma game being recorded as an Iowa-Oklahoma game.) This will be the last post in this format; next week’s ratings will be published alongside my annual “Who SHOULD Go To Which Bowls?” post.
  • #6 Wisconsin is really determined to prove they deserve to win the Big Ten. They’re now ahead of Auburn and only two spots behind #4 Ohio State. Meanwhile, Ohio State is now up to fifth in the BCS with Boise’s loss, and could well go to a BCS bowl, if not the Rose.
  • #13 South Carolina missed tying the Big 12 Title Game for Game of the Week by .145 in the C Ratings behind #12 Missouri. Underrated (or properly rated but ignored) teams to look for in the non-BCS bowls: a possible #14 Alabama-Iowa or Michigan State Capitol One Bowl matchup, plus #11 Oklahoma State, Missouri, South Carolina, Arkansas, #23 Texas A&M. #18 LSU is barely worth mentioning.
  • Iowa now outranks #22 Michigan State. That game held very much true to form in retrospect.
  • Suddenly Louisville isn’t far behind Pitt in the rankings. #19 West Virginia may have one of the highest ratings for a Big East team this season, but they need help to get the Big East BCS bid. But that help is a very real possibility. USF is ahead of Connecticut in the C Ratings.
  • In the past there have been problems with the ACC having so much parity that teams out of the title game hunt have been leading the conference while the teams in the title game struggle to make the Top 25. Not this year. The conference’s two best teams will play in the title game. In fact, every BCS conference title game pits the two best teams in their respective conferences regardless of division.
  • Northern Illinois has been a MAC mainstay in the Other Positive B Points in past years, to the point where I wondered if something about their schedule or style of play guaranteed them positive B Points late in the year regardless of how well they were actually doing. Well, this year they could win the conference title.

Best game of week: #8 Oklahoma v. #10 Nebraska in Arlington, 8pm ET, ABC
Complete C Ratings

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 12

November 25, 2010 – 11:55 pm

On the eve of a huge Friday of college football, there’s a new #1 in the C Ratings. #1 Boise State is the beneficiary of #2 TCU not playing last week, but they should increase their lead after playing #16 Nevada while TCU plays lowly New Mexico.

#3 Oregon didn’t slip for their idle hands, but #7 Auburn fell hard, falling behind #5 Stanford and #6 Oklahoma, resulting in Bedlam for the Big 12 South title slightly outpacing the Iron Bowl for Game of the Week. Auburn may have to beat down on #9 Alabama to justify the respect the BCS is giving the SEC. If a one-loss SEC team goes to the National Title Game ahead of an unbeaten team from a non-BCS conference I’ll just put my head in my hands. The SEC is the best conference top-to-bottom, but its best teams haven’t been as dominating as you would like.

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • #10 Virginia Tech breaks into the Top 10 after completing their road to the division title. Given the record of ACC teams, expect them to get a very good seed in the Golden Bowl Tournament.
  • #11 Wisconsin is looking better, but #4 Ohio State still looks like a worldbeater, even if every non-BCS team in the country now hates their guts.
  • #12 Nebraska and #13 Missouri are once again back-to-back in the ratings. The game that made the difference in the North is likely making the difference in the ratings as well.
  • #14 Arkansas is actually ahead of overrated #17 LSU. Expect them to prove they deserve it. #15 South Carolina could have a trap game against a Clemson team in positive B Points.
  • #18 Navy is off until the Army game.
  • V-Tech has locked up one division, but ACC Madness continues in the other. The Atlantic basically comes down to the #19 NC State-Maryland game, even though Maryland now has three conference losses and #23 Florida State has finished its conference schedule, heading into the Florida game, with two.
  • #20 West Virginia has the highest rating for a Big East team this season, but they’re a long shot to win the Big East even if they beat rivals Pittsburgh.
  • Congratulations to #21 Texas A&M for winning the Lone Star Showdown (not yet reflected in the rankings) for the first time in forever, and reminding us all why this used to be the Southwest Conference’s premier rivalry.
  • The Land Grant Trophy game may be the best of the early games on Saturday. #22 Michigan State hopes to win the Big Ten by beating a decent Penn State team and rooting for rival Michigan. Iowa now finds itself just barely outside the Top 25.
  • Finally, #24 Notre Dame breaks into positive B Points – and the Top 25 – after beating up on Army in Yankee Stadium, and #25 Arizona is going to be a bit of a long shot to upset Oregon.

Best game of week: #6 Oklahoma @ #8 Oklahoma State, Saturday 8pm ET, ABC
Complete C Ratings

By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 11

November 19, 2010 – 6:15 pm

The top six in the C Ratings remain the same as last week; #1 TCU had too big a lead to be terribly affected by Utah’s loss to Notre Dame. So instead, let’s talk about the chaotic Big Ten race, where I think I actually heard one person on ESPN (I think it was Kirk Herbstreit… I’d say it was on BCS Countdown but I don’t think I watched it this week… was it on PTI?) call #4 Ohio State the best team in the Big Ten if not one of the best in the country. The bandwagon is gaining steam, folks!

Of course, for them to have a chance at even a BCS bowl they probably need #14 Wisconsin to lose, so did the Badgers earn the respect the BCS has been giving them with the way they racked up 83 points on Indiana? Well… not really. As I’ve said in the past, the C Ratings have two curbs on running up the score in the A and B Ratings. Wisconsin didn’t get the benefit in the B Ratings because Indiana sucks (A Rating = .176), and they didn’t get the benefit in the A Ratings because they allowed 20 points. The real margin of victory was 63, which is still impressive if sometimes matched by other guarantee games, but those other guarantee games have scores of 63-0, not 83-20. So the score ratio Wisconsin got was only (63/83)=.759, which translates into the A Rating calculation as .8795, impressive but not overly so, and even the relatively minor A Rating can’t budge much this late. Wisconsin’s A Rating only went from .602 to .627, and while its C Rating more than doubled, the gaps between teams increase in the upper echelons of the ratings, so the Badgers only moved up three spots.

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • #7 Oklahoma nestles right up behind #6 Oklahoma State, setting up a potentially huge Bedlam game for the Big 12 South title, thanks to a squash of 5-5 Texas Tech. #9 Nebraska gives the Big 12 three Top 10 representatives, actually a step down for them, as they put themselves three scores ahead of Kansas by only a point in the final Kansas-Nebraska Act game. #8 Stanford takes a step down with a tight pull-out against Arizona State.
  • I have to rant a little about margin of victory, since the BCS’ prohibition of it in the computer rankings has finally come back to the forefront. We can be so concerned with running up the score that we can ignore that just the possibility of running up the score shows how great you are. Not factoring in margin of victory means the BCS can look the other way with teams that beat good teams but have trouble beating teams they should beat easily. Last year Iowa beat Northern Iowa and Penn State by similar scores. This year #15 LSU is putting on a whole new spin on success. It’s not the BCS’ fault they could have grabbed the SEC West title ahead of #10 Alabama if #5 Auburn lost out, including to the Tide – that’s not anyone’s fault unless you want to come up with entirely new schema for conference titles – but it is the BCS’ fault that they’re 5th and could have gone to the BCS Title Game, ahead of TCU and #2 Boise State teams everyone agrees should be given a chance, if they had won the SEC Title Game. (Although picking them ahead of Bama for the Sugar Bowl is a whole other issue.) Auburn and #17 South Carolina isn’t as big as some recent SEC Title Games, but it’s still probably the biggest game of championship week.
  • ACC Madness! Two down, one to go, and #11 Virginia Tech has reached the point where they would need to lose to Virginia too to not go to the ACC Title Game. I’d love to see them play a BCS at-large in the Orange Bowl, but they’ll probably be fed a minnow champion from the good but full-of-too-much-parity Big East (the magic 8-ball has come up “yes, #23 West Virginia can play in the Top 25 this week”) that could come down to a mess of tiebreakers (a five-way tie isn’t a possibility but a three-way tie is), and we’ll have yet another year of no one caring about the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, #22 NC State is the only team in the Atlantic in the Top 25, and control their own destiny if they win out. Maryland, though, is a must-win no matter who wins between Florida State and Maryland this week or even if the Pack lose to their rivals (though if the Pack do lose they’re certainly rooting for Maryland).
  • This is really a holding pattern week before the big games next week. Besides the Iron Bowl, and the game that could decide who goes to the Cotton Bowl between LSU and #12 Arkansas (don’t be surprised if the Hogs win), there will also be the big game between #13 Nevada and Boise State.
  • #16 Missouri got back on the winning track against Kansas State, but with #24 Texas A&M the only other Big 12 team in the Top 25 that isn’t in the Top 20, and Nebraska needing two losses to lose the North, what exactly are the Tigers playing for? A&M was propelled by a huge win over a good Baylor team and now gets a huge game with Nebraska, but Missouri shouldn’t get its hopes up. Nebraska’s other remaining opponent is lowly Colorado, in both teams’ final Big 12 regular-season game.
  • There is one reason that would be sufficient to explain why I keep considering changing the C Rating formula: independents. Notre Dame is a team in negative B Points just sitting there in the middle of a number of teams in positive B Points because their C Rating isn’t depressed by other teams in their conference with lower ratings. #18 Navy has its ratings depressed by being in the “military conference” with Army, but Army is on the first page this year as well. Navy is still good, with only three losses, and their B Rating would still be sufficient for the Top 25, but still, they have three losses despite Air Force being the only team they’ve played in positive B Points.
  • Do you think the Big Ten is happy they don’t have any more of these chaotic conference title races after this year? #20 Iowa isn’t even involved with two conference losses and they beat one of the teams, #19 Michigan State, that’s just a spot ahead of them.
  • Arizona tumbles off the Top 25 (but just barely; there’s still a huge gap to Oregon State at #49) so #21 USC is the last Pac-10 team on the Top 25. (Actually, now that I think about it, even if USC were disqualified the C Ratings would still have three Pac-10 teams, just a different three…)

Best game of week: #4 Ohio State @ #20 Iowa, 3:30pm ET, ABC
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By Morgan Wick | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 10

November 9, 2010 – 5:50 pm

A #1 TCU-#2 Boise State national championship game?

That’s what the C Ratings seem to be suggesting. TCU was already #1; beating up on #13 Utah just means they’re building an insurmountable lead. But Boise State beat up on a good Hawaii team, while #3 Oregon beat up on a Washington team that will probably not deliver Jake Locker to a bowl.

The difference in strength of schedule means the C Ratings are vouching for the battle of non-BCS teams. We’ll probably get #5 Auburn-Oregon instead, of course, but TCU and Boise have proven their bona fides over the course of the season. Boise is still haunted by V-Tech’s loss to James Madison, but the loss coming to a I-AA school isn’t really affected in V-Tech’s ratings, let alone Boise’s, but that is a very tough nut to crack while continuing to use Access to calculate the ratings. Both TCU and Boise have beaten enough good teams to show they deserve a shot – and TCU, at least, looks likely to get one if one of the BCS unbeatens loses.

Does it help TCU’s case to see the most likely 1-loss team in the way, #10 Alabama, go down to #15 LSU? Not necessarily: now people are suggesting Auburn itself could go to the BCS Title Game with one loss. But if that happens, the wailing and gnashing of teeth could reach a whole new level. (And meanwhile, #4 Ohio State continues plugging along, hoping for a #17 Wisconsin loss…)

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • #6 Oklahoma State catapults up the ratings, benefitting from #9 Oklahoma’s loss and #8 Nebraska’s OT win to become the Big 12 leader, and likely South representative in the title game. A national championship trip seems a long shot, but like Ohio State, they are top ten in the BCS.
  • From what I understand, if Oregon plays in the BCS Title Game the Rose Bowl HAS to select TCU or Boise, not #7 Stanford. Someone else getting screwed by the BCS rules! The one year it’s not an Illinois… On the other hand, Stanford has a pretty good shot of going to my simulated Golden Bowl Playoffs as an at-large.
  • #11 Nevada is knocking on the door of the top 10. The six-point loss to Hawaii will keep them out of BCS bowl contention; take that away, and I would be arguing that if they beat Boise State, they should be considered at least as much in the national championship consideration as Boise was.
  • How the mighty have fallen! Losing to Nebraska was one thing, but losing to lowly Texas Tech? It wasn’t too long ago that #14 Missouri was in the thick of the national championship consideration, but now they’d need Nebraska to really collapse to get more than a trip to a mid-pack bowl. And if they want to get their season back on track, they need to do it against a K-State team ranked in the BCS (but not in positive B Points). Fortunately, they’re still unbeaten at home.
  • As I mentioned last week, all that matters to #25 South Carolina in terms of clinching the division is winning the Spurrier Bowl this week. #16 Arkansas, on the other hand, is mired in the SEC West where Auburn, Alabama, and LSU reign – but the loss to Alabama was very tight. With LSU at home still to come in the schedule, an LSU team that’s the top one-loss team in the BCS but only one spot ahead of the Hogs in the C Ratings because of the BCS’ no-MoV rule, look for Arkansas to potentially pull the upset there, establishing themselves as the third-best team in the West. Meanwhile, #22 Florida returns to the BCS and now outrates South Carolina in the C Ratings…
  • When it looks at the C Ratings, must #18 Iowa be cursing itself for its one-point loss to Wisconsin? You know Ohio State must be cursing it, because that was the best chance for a Wisconsin loss all year, aside from the actual loss to #20 Michigan State.
  • #19 Arizona takes a tumble after the Stanford loss, and #23 USC falls out of the top 20 for the first time all year.
  • #21 Navy is at one of the highest positions in the C Ratings I’ve ever seen from them. Give the credit to demolishing an East Carolina team that knows how to work the score ratio. Also note that two of their losses are to good teams and they beat Notre Dame pretty handily as well.
  • Other than #12 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State is the only other ACC team in the Top 25 – and NC State just lost to Clemson! Nonetheless, both teams control their own destiny to the ACC Title Game, since NC State beat Florida State and still has Maryland on the schedule. V-Tech cleared the first hurdle and now just needs to win two of the remaining three.
  • Once again, the Top 25 is deserted of Big East teams, though both Pitt and West Virginia are just barely on the outside looking in. Right behind them is Oregon State – what would it say about TCU and Boise if they were to enter the Top 25? Texas A&M’s upset of Oklahoma has them ranked in the BCS, but it’s not quite enough to crack the top 25 of the C Ratings.

Best game of week: San Diego State @ #1 TCU, 4pm ET, VS.
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By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Lineal Title | Comments (0)

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 9

November 3, 2010 – 8:57 pm

Both lineal titles are updated… and with the fall of #18 Michigan State and #9 Missouri, the BCS Title picture has dramatically clarified.

There are exactly two BCS conference unbeaten teams, and much as #3 Boise State and #1 TCU, which expected to benefit from Alabama and Ohio State losses, don’t like it, if they win out they can punch their ticket to the national title game. Neither has a lineal title at the moment, though there is a very good chance Florida’s Princeton-Yale Title could find itself at stake in the SEC title game. (Florida is just barely outside the Top 25 this week.)

If #6 Auburn or #2 Oregon lose, that’s when all hell will break loose. Boise and TCU will claim they deserve to get in (assuming TCU gets past #8 Utah this week), but #10 Alabama, the Big 12 Title winner, and based on the C Ratings, #4 Ohio State will have very legitimate claims. We could be in for another BCS Mess.

Other thoughts on the new C Ratings:

  • Alabama, as far as most people are concerned, is consolidating their position as the best 1-loss team. How much of that is starting the season #1 in the country? As noted above, they’ll have a legit case if they win out and they will be a trap game for their rival, but they might be overrated at the moment. Ohio State continues to be ranked behind #23 Wisconsin in the BCS, restraining their ranking, as people continue to read too much into the outcome of one game (a road loss to a team that beat their best non-conference opponent, mediocre Arizona State, by one point at home). #11 Arizona continues to be underrated and behind #13 Stanford… but as Rece Davis pointed out on “BCS Countdown”, that could change in a hurry if they beat the other elite Pac-10 teams, starting with Stanford this week. If it weren’t for their already-lofty C Rating, I’d think that would lead to people overreacting to a few games. What motivation does #21 USC have the rest of the way.
  • Baylor-#12 Oklahoma State will be for at least a share of the Big 12 South lead. Yes, BAYLOR is your current Big 12 South leader. Meanwhile, Nebraska is at least as good as Oklahoma. The last year of the Big 12 as we knew it suddenly flip-flopped the roles of the divisions. (Baylor has a terrible SoS and neither Baylor nor Oklahoma State has played the Sooners, which could be an effective Big 12 South title game.)
  • ACC Madness: #14 Virginia Tech leads the Coastal by two games, unbeaten in conference while everyone else has two conference losses. V-Tech hasn’t played any of the two-loss teams yet, though, so two losses could take it all away; they play all three in a row starting with G-Tech Thursday night, but Miami (FL) at the end of the string is the only one in positive B Points. #20 NC State’s win over #22 Florida State earned them respect in the BCS Standings; the Atlantic is anyone’s guess between those two and Maryland, who hasn’t played either yet. Clemson, of all teams, is the only ACC team not already noted in positive B Points.
  • What are the chances the Princeton-Yale Title is on the line in the SEC Title game? Pretty good; #15 South Carolina is in the lead in the East in the standings, the BCS, and the C Ratings, and the Spurrier Bowl is the only game that matters to them in terms of clinching the division. Troy and Clemson afterwards are trap games, though, both on the first page. Florida has one more conference loss and so need to avoid a loss to Vanderbilt to make the Spurrier Bowl a true effective East title game; otherwise it lets Georgia and Vandy back in it if South Carolina loses to Arkansas and Florida. #16 LSU could sneak away with the SEC West if they upset ‘Bama and Auburn loses to both Georgia and ‘Bama; if that chain of events lands them in the national title game a LOT of people will throw fits.
  • #17 Iowa skyrocketed onto the top 25 with their win over Michigan State. I think they were in negative B Points last week. Fresno State could be a trap game for #19 Nevada. #24 Hawaii makes three WAC teams in the Top 25, which seems unprecedented, just in time for the big Boise State game (also for the Broncos’ lineal title). The WAC’s conference rating is better than the Mountain West and they have more Top 25 teams. Does Boise State actually deserve more benefit of the doubt for their conference this year than TCU? Can Nevada keep this up and keep the Mountain West a Big 3 post-realignment?
  • #25 Pitt once again populates the Top 25 with a Big East team. The BCS, on the other hand, is deserted of Big East teams, probably because of the Notre Dame loss. But the Big East has a lot of parity, and no team has more than two conference losses, so their task is far from over. But they’ve already beaten Syracuse, so they can take one loss to any team and still punch a ticket to the BCS. West Virginia is STILL not that far outside the Top 25.

Best game of week: TCU @ Utah, 3:30pm ET, CBS CS (do not get me started, even with a free preview!)
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By Morgan Wick | Also posted in College Football Lineal Title, NFL Lineal Title | Comments (0)