Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 11 Picks

Week 11 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Chicago @ LA Rams
  • Prospects: 3-4 v. 5-3. The Eagles are a good team, but the Bears are now on a four-game losing streak after starting 3-1, raising the prospect of a team in freefall and making this game very vulnerable.
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Cowboys-Lions (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Texans (6-3)-Ravens (6-2), Jaguars (4-5)-Colts (5-3).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
  • Analysis: I figured even in a best-case scenario it would be difficult for the league to get away from the #2 and #3 media markets in favor of two teams with much less name value, but the scenario I laid out as representing that best case happened, including what may be regarded as a coming-out party for Lamar Jackson that puts the Ravens in the conference title discussion. If this were the early days of flex scheduling where “play your way into primetime” was still a plausible organizing principle I’d absolutely pull the trigger on a flex. I continue to wonder, though, if the Texans bring enough buzz for this to be worth a flex, especially without J.J. Watt. Notably, Texans-Ravens would probably get decent distribution as the early game of CBS’ doubleheader with only three other CBS games in the time slot and the Jets and Cowboys playing on the road on Fox, whereas Bears-Rams would have to either be a 4:05 Fox game or take two big markets away from Patriots-Eagles on CBS. On that note, Jets-Trumps was the game announced as being crossflexed to Fox last week, freeing up two big markets, including one that normally sees as many Ravens games as possible, to receive Texans-Ravens, while also foreclosing them from receiving what might otherwise have been Fox’s lead singleheader game in Cowboys-Lions. I know I said in last week’s post that the lack of a “final” Week 11 schedule opened the door to further changes, but I’m not sure you announce that crossflex at that time if you’re planning on punting Texans-Ravens to primetime anyway and leaving neutral markets to get, what, Jaguars-Colts? Bills-Dolphins? I wouldn’t be too surprised by a flex (there’s a reason I don’t try too hard to predict afternoon schedule changes in this feature), but I would still expect the Bird and the Beard, not Al and Cris, to set up shop in Baltimore in two weeks.
  • Final prediction: Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams (no change).

11 thoughts on “Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 11 Picks

  1. What is your prediction regarding Week 12? As for myself, I like the Packers vs. the 49ers to move to prime time on NBC which will result in the Seattle Seahawks vs. the Philadelphia Eagles to move to 4:25PM(ET) on FOX. Thoughts?

  2. Hello all,

    Here are my final comments on Week 11 SNF Flex Scheduling, as I’d prefer it.

    # 1 – Hou(6-3) @ Balt(6-2)
    # 2 – NE(8-1) @ Phil(5-4)

    The tentative is: Chi(3-5) @ LAR(5-3) and I’d flex it, as the Bears seem to be in a major downswing at this time.

    I will give some opinions on Weeks 12 to 17 before Thursday Night Football this week. I am going to go to nflcommunications.com right after this post and see if the final Week 11 schedule is out yet.

    Go Pack Go this Sunday at Lambeau vs. the Panthers!!! ๐Ÿ™‚

  3. Rachel:

    I see Week 12 as a case where we wind up with a rare reverse doubleheader on FOX with Cowboys-Pats the sole 1:00 PM game on FOX while most likely Steelers-Bengals remains the sole 1:00 PM ET game on CBS and other than SNF/MNF ALL OTHER GAMES at 4:05 PM ET on CBS and 4:25 PM ET on FOX. The closest we had to this situation was two years ago when the NFL likely wanted to move Eagles-Rams to SNF and Steelers-Ravens (the actual SNF game) to 1:00 PM (and most likely shifted to FOX) in a similar reverse DH situation but that would have required a slew of cross-flexes that would have been a nightmare whereas that would not be the case this time.

  4. Adding:

    One reason I see this is moving Seahawks-Eagles to 1:00 PM is not in the NFL’s best interests as right now they are likely praying the second 49ers-Seahawks meeting in Week 17 is not only for the NFC West but also the #1 seed in the NFC. They likely don’t want to have the Seahawks play a 10:00 AM PT game that was supposed to be SNF because of that.

  5. Another reason NFL might not flex Texans-Ravens to SNF week 11 is because the Texans play on TNF week 12 vs. the Colts. I don’t think any team has ever played SNF and TNF games back-to-back. Doubt the NFL would force that upon the Texans. Looks like Bears-Rams is staying put

  6. The Bears didnโ€™t play SNF/TNF last year, but they did get flexed into SNF right before playing the early game in Detroit on Thanksgiving.

  7. Rachel, I agree with you on Packers vs 49ers being flexed into SNF.
    The NFL will NEVER do a reverse doubleheader with the best game at 1 pm alone.
    Never.
    Never.

  8. Hello all,

    Hereโ€™s my comments about Weeks 12 through 17, which happens to be during the main period for Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling. I will have my final comments about Week 12 after Monday Night Football.

    Week 12:

    Tentative game is:

    Sea(6-2) @ Phil(4-4)

    My current preferences are these:

    #1 โ€“ GB(7-2) @ SF(8-0)
    #2 โ€“ Sea(7-2) @ Phil(5-4) <โ€”the tentative
    #3 โ€“ Car(5-3) @ NO(7-1)
    #4 โ€“ Dal(5-3) @ NE(8-1)

    Week 13:

    Tentative game is:

    NE(8-1) @ Hou(6-3) <โ€” this game has much improved its chances of staying put with Houston winning last week against the Jaguars and New England losing last week against the Ravens

    My current preferences are these:

    #1 – NE(8-1) @ Hou(6-3) <— the tentative
    #2 – SF(8-0) @ Ravens(6-2)
    #3 – Oak(4-4) @ KC(6-3)

    Week 14:

    Tentative game is:

    Sea(7-2) @ LA Rams(5-3) is looking good to stay, especially after the Seahawks won again last week

    49ers(8-0) @ Saints(7-1), Ravens(6-2) @ Bills(6-2), & Chiefs(6-3) @ Patriots(8-1) are other options

    Week 15:

    Tentative game is:

    Minn(6-3) @ LA Chargers(4-5) actually improved its chances of staying put, as the Vikings lost and the Chargers won

    Other options are Seahawks(7-2) @ Panthers(5-3), Rams(5-3) @ Cowboys(5-3), & Bills(6-2) @ Steelers(4-4)

    Week 16:

    Tentative game is: KC(6-3) @ Chi(3-5), but might have trouble if the Bears continue to falter & ,to me, this has the best chance of being flexed out.

    This week is tough to project now, as 3 of 5 Pre-selected matchups will be moving to Saturday for a 3 game tripleheader on NFL Network. Those potential games are now to be decided after Week 10, at the latest. In other words, after this week. They are: Rams(5-3) @ 49ers(8-0) (likely Sat), Bills(6-2) @ Patriots(8-1) (likely Sat), Raiders(4-4) @ Chargers(4-5), Lions(3-4-1) @ Broncos(3-6), & Texans(6-3) @ Buccaneers(2-6). Not sure who the NFL will select as the 3rd game between those 3, but Oakland/LA Chargers is getting more & more likely, especially after both of those teams won last week.

    Other options are Cowboys(5-3) @ Eagles(4-4) & Panthers(5-3) @ Colts(5-3)

    Week 17:

    Saints(7-1) @ Panthers(5-3), 49ers(8-0) @ Seahawks(7-2), & Steelers(4-4) @ Ravens(6-2) are the only 3 matchups worth anything at the moment.

    Go Pack Go this coming Sunday at Lambeau vs. the Panthers

    Jeff ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. Karl:

    It’s extremely rare you have a situation like this for Week 12 where the NFL has to make such decisions on what to do. This is a rare case where it may be prudent to put the most attractive game (Cowboys-Patriots) at 1:00 PM and flip the DH for one week, moving ALL of the regional games save one on CBS to 4:05/4:25 (with GB-SF the main regional game). The NFL has to look ahead here as its difficult for west coast teams to play at 10:00 AM Pacific Time on the east coast AND I’m sure the NFL and NBC want everything done as much as realistically possible to have the second 49ers-Seahawks game in Week 17 be for the NFC West and #1 seed in the NFC. There are a lot of Eagles fans who want to see their game with the Seahawks flexed out because it gives the Eagles an advantage BUT the NFL from a competitive standpoint may not want to do it. Hence, to me the likelihood of a rare reverse doubleheader with Cowboys-Pats the sole 1:00 PM game on FOX with one game on CBS (most likely Steelers-Bengals) and ALL OTHER games not in prime time at 4:05/4:25.

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