Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 12 Picks

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 7-2 v. 3-7. Very lopsided, but could be hard pressed to lose its spot under the circumstances.
  • Likely protections: Chiefs-Broncos (CBS) and Cardinals-Falcons, Rams-Saints, Seahawks-Bucs, or nothing (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cardinals (4-4-1)-Falcons (6-4), Bengals (3-4-1)-Ravens (5-4), Seahawks (6-2-1)-Bucs (4-5), Rams (4-5)-Saints (4-5), Panthers (3-6)-Raiders (7-2).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Bengals have a chance to put a second 4-4-1 team in the conversation.
  • Analysis: Other than the Pats’ loss, the exact scenario I laid out that would have made the flex situation particularly interesting happened. Thanksgiving Weekend typically means a paucity of good options because of all the games, including the Cowboys, bumped to Thanksgiving day (and this year the Colts are the only team across the Thanksgiving and Monday Night games below .500), and I’ve heard it suggested that NBC doesn’t want its plans for travel from the Thanksgiving night site to the following Sunday night site to be changed on less than two weeks’ notice, but with their half of the TNF package they’d have to do that pretty much every week of the main flex period anyway, and I would imagine the league might be desperate to do anything to stem off the constant “collapsing ratings” headlines. Neither Cardinals-Falcons nor Bengals-Ravens have any stars on the level of Tom Brady, nor do they bring the same caliber of market, but there is some evidence that people are turning away from lousy primetime games as much as anything else, and the league might be reticent to put a game that looks like such a mismatch and whose main promise might be a repeat of the Butt Fumble on its main primetime package if it has viable alternatives. Of course, as Seahawks-Cardinals proved, even evenly-matched but mediocre teams can have a lousy game, and I still wouldn’t be surprised if Patriots-Jets keeps its spot, but a flex is a very real possibility, and for the moment I’m going to say that under most circumstances in the past, the NFL would definitely pull the trigger here (and indeed I wouldn’t be surprised if Seahawks-Bucs was the pick).
  • Final prediction: Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons (if unprotected), Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (if Cardinals-Falcons is protected and the Bengals win Monday night), New England Patriots @ New York Jets (no change) (if Cardinals-Falcons is protected and the Giants win Monday night).

8 Comments

  1. Rube Dali, the DodoHorse
    Posted November 14, 2016 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    The Patriots-Jets game got flexed out for Chiefs-Broncos today.

  2. David
    Posted November 14, 2016 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    I thought that the Week 12 Chiefs-Broncos was protected by CBS.

  3. David
    Posted November 14, 2016 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

    With today annoucement from the NFL. I realized that is not the case. The following is a list of five games on CBS and FOX that I counted that are protected from flexing to SNF.

    CBS

    1. Week 10 Broncos at Saints
    2. Week 11 Ravens at Cowboys
    3. Week 13 Texans at Packers
    4. Week 14 Steelers at Bills
    5. Week 15 Patriots at Broncos

    With today annoucment. I left week 12 blank for CBS.

    FOX

    1. Week 10 Cowboys at Steelers
    2. Week 11 Cardinals at Vikings
    3. Week 14 Seahawks at Packers
    4. Week 15 Eagles at Ravens

    I am quite aware that I am missing one here at FOX end for Week 12 (just like CBS no games are protected and for Week 13 I say that Giants at Steelers is protected.

  4. Walt Gekko
    Posted November 14, 2016 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    VERY surprised CBS did NOT protect Broncos-Chiefs UNLESS the NFL asked CBC to give up that protection since Patriots-Jets will likely now be the main 4:25 PM ET game on CBS. If the Panthers had won Sunday, I suspect Panthers-Raiders would have been the Sunday nighter.

  5. joewashu
    Posted November 14, 2016 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    Very possible no games were protected for Week 12 — it is pretty uncommon a NY team gets flexed OUT of Primetime. Especially one against the Patriots

    I think it is very possible, neither CBS nor FOX protected ANY games for Week 12

  6. Jeff
    Posted November 14, 2016 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Well, as all have said, for Week 12 the New England @ NY Jets game was flexed out(due to the NY Jets), in favor of Kansas City(7-2) @ Denver(7-3). This game indeed was my clear #1 choice. Two things that do surprise me about this are these: that CBS didn’t protect this game(or maybe they did as Walt said) and that we got this game, since 4 weeks later these teams play again in the rematch on Christmas night. Very rare that the same 2 teams meet twice on SNF. I actually did come up with a 2nd choice and that was Arizona(4-4-1) @ Atlanta(6-4).

    As for my opinions on Week 13 SNF flex options, I have it narrowed down to 3 choices to replace Carolina @ Seattle. My current #1 is Kansas City(7-2) @ Atlanta(6-4). #2 is Miami(5-4) @ Baltimore(5-4) and lastly, my #3 is Washington(5-3-1) @ Arizona(4-4-1).

    Now for my first take on Week 14 SNF flex options. No way the current choice and my #1 choice gets flexed. That game is Dallas(8-1) @ NY Giants(6-3). Though I do currently find 3 other games at least attractive enough to perhaps move off the 10amPST/1pmEST start time and be moved to later in the day. My #2 choice is Washington(5-3-1) @ Philadelphia(5-4). My #3 is Denver(7-3) @ Tennessee(5-5) and my #4 is Arizona(4-4-1) @ Miami(5-4).

    On to Week 11 and here’s to another great week of football. :)

  7. Atsushi
    Posted November 15, 2016 at 6:19 am | Permalink

    I agree with almost everyone’s sentiment and I am shocked that Chiefs-Broncos was flexed in, considering that I thought CBS had protected that game. It also doesn’t make sense that Patriots-Jets will be the main doubleheader game since it will still be shown on many markets throughout the country when it is thought to be an unappealing game. If the NFL wanted to avoid the Jets and Giants both playing at 1:00 PM, couldn’t they have moved the Giants-Browns game to 4:05 PM on FOX?

  8. Walt Gekko
    Posted November 15, 2016 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    Atushi:

    As I noted in the other thread, the NFL generally tries to avoid having both New York teams play simultaneously UNLESS it’s Week 17 OR it’s a situation like a few weeks ago where the Giants were home on the singleheader network (against the Eagles) and the Jets game was the only one that could air on CBS at 1:00 in New York (as otherwise, Jets-Browns would have been at 4:25 with no game at 1:00 on CBS OR Eagles-Giants would have been at 4:05 on FOX with NO 4:25 game in NYC on CBS). Those of us who grew up in New York remember for years having ONLY Jets and Giants games most weeks with out-of-town games being very rare.

    Jeff:

    If the Eagles and Bengals win this week, I suspect that is the SNF game because it would have playoff implications in both conferences (and especially since its possible the entire NFC North could be under .500 the week this game is played).

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