Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was originally written with the 2007 season in mind and has been only iteratively and incompletely edited since then, hence why at one point it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 5
  • In effect during Weeks 5-17
  • Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:25 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5; I’m assuming protections were due in Week 4 again this year, and the above notwithstanding, Week 10 is part of the main flex period this year, as it was in 2006 and 2011. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC, although starting this year Week 17 is exempt from team appearance limits. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Texans don’t have games in the main flex period, though they don’t have any early-flex games left either. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: Seattle @ New England
  • Prospects: 4-1 v. 5-1, which is nearly impossible to beat.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Saints but probably nothing (CBS) and Cowboys-Steelers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Eagles would be a strong contender against a weaker tentative (and might have been protected if the Cowboys were facing a weaker opponent), as would Vikings-Skraelings. Packers-Titans is too mediocre to be relevant, and Texans-Jaguars and Broncos-Saints are 4-2 v. 2-3 matchups that would need a lot to go their way under the best of circumstances.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ Washington
  • Prospects: 3-2 v. 4-2, not quite as hard to beat as Seahawks-Patriots, but pretty strong.
  • Likely protections: Ravens-Cowboys or Eagles-Seahawks (CBS) and probably Cardinals-Vikings if anything (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Besides CBS’ unprotected game (and Cardinals-Vikings if it’s unprotected), the only other options involve teams below .500, with Bucs-Chiefs and Jaguars-Lions being the most viable.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 1-5. Very lopsided, but could be hard pressed to lose its spot under the circumstances.
  • Likely protections: Chiefs-Broncos (CBS) and Cardinals-Falcons, Rams-Saints, Seahawks-Bucs, or nothing (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games, and this year seems to have gotten unusually lucky in terms of good teams on Thanksgiving and Monday night (across those four games only the Colts are below .500), although Cardinals-Falcons is looking like a potentially viable alternative. Basically, whichever games Fox didn’t protect are joined by Jaguars-Bills as at least dark horses.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Carolina @ Seattle
  • Prospects: 1-5 v. 4-1, with the Panthers’ struggles making this unfortunately lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Texans-Packers (CBS) and Rams-Patriots, Giants-Steelers, or Eagles-Bengals (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chiefs-Falcons and Bills-Raiders are reasonably strong contenders, along with whichever game(s) are unprotected between Rams-Patriots and Giants-Steelers (I think the former is most likely), as well as Racial Slurs-Cardinals. Lions-Saints and Broncos-Jaguars are emerging as dark horses.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 3-3 would be tough for any game to overcome the tentative game bias against, but when it’s an intra-NFC East matchup involving the Cowboys, nothing else has a chance.
  • Likely protections: Steelers-Bills if anything (CBS) and Seahawks-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Native Americans-Eagles is good enough I considered listing them as an option for the protection, while Falcons-Rams and Broncos-Titans would also be very viable options against a more vulnerable tentative. Vikings-Jaguars is a dark horse, and Saints-Bucs is even darker.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4. Not great, and without the sort of brand value that would insulate it from a flex, but not terrible.
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Broncos (CBS) and Eagles-Ravens (FOX).
  • Other possible games: The good news for this game is that Titans-Chiefs and Lions-Giants are the only games that don’t involve teams under .500, and Lions-Giants, which has the better name value, pits two .500 teams. That’s not overcoming the tentative game bias. Bucs-Cowboys, Jaguars-Texans, or Saints-Cardinals could be dark horses if the road teams could climb above .500.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

3 Comments

  1. Walt Gekko
    Posted October 19, 2016 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    My thoughts as of now:

    Weeks 10 and 11 will see no change.

    Week 12: If the Jets are 1-9 or 2-8 when the decision has to be made (they have their Bye in Week 11), then I don’t see this holding up, especially if Cardinals-Falcons is left unprotected by FOX.

    Week 13: If the Eagles get going again and the Bengals get their act together, Eagles-Bengals likely gets flexed in since Giants-Steelers is almost certain to be protected by FOX. If Rams-Pats had been in LA instead of Foxboro, then I’d see that as a flex (I was surprised the NFL didn’t schedule the Rams for as many prime time home dates as possible given I would think networks would want the Rams in as many national time slots as possible so they could have stars of their shows “be seen at the game,” bringing in women who actually watch Lakers games that air nationally just to see that).

    Week 14: Cowboys-Giants likely to have Wild Card implications for the G-Men at least, so I don’t see it flexed.

    Week 15: If Eagles-Bengals gets flexed in Week 13, then Steelers-Bengals stays since the Bengals obviously would have improved enough to have the other game flexed into SNF.

    Obviously, no flex in Week 16 due to Christmas falling on a Sunday.

    Week 17: Too early to tell, especially since it’s possible for example all four teams in the NFC East could be in the playoffs or in the hunt for such berths going into the final day of the season.

  2. Atsushi
    Posted October 22, 2016 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    Hey Morgan, I just found this website and I want to say that I appreciate your analysis of Sunday Night Football flex possibilities.
    I was wondering if you think it is realistic for Cardinals-Falcons in week 12 and Chiefs-Falcons in week 13 to both be flexed in since SNF would take place in Atlanta in consecutive weeks. Would NBC or Fox oppose this scenario if it happened?

  3. Jeff
    Posted October 24, 2016 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    Now, for Week 8 and what I would do based on conclusion of Week 6. Based on records alone, I would now move New England(5-1)@ Buffalo(4-2) to my #1 for SNF. #2 would now be Philadelphia(3-2) @ Dallas(5-1)and #3 would be Green Bay(3-2) @ Atlanta(4-2).

    As for Week 9, I’d leave the current SNF game as my #1 and that is Denver(4-2) @ Oakland(4-2). My #2 would be Detroit(3-3) @ Minnesota(5-0), #3 would be Pittsburgh(4-2) @ Baltimore(3-3), and #4 would be Philadelphia(3-2) @ NY Giants(3-3).

    And on to Week 10. My current #1 would be the current SNF game and that is Seattle(4-1) @ New England(5-1). My #2 would be Dallas(5-1) @ Pittsburgh(4-2). #3 would be Minnesota(5-0) @ Washington(4-2). #4 would be Atlanta(4-2) @ Philadelphia(3-2) and lastly #5 would be Green Bay(3-2) @ Tennessee(3-3). Go Pack Go this week on Thursday Night Football when we host the Bears. 😉

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