2011 College Football Rankings – Week 4

How much longer will I be doing the college football rankings? They eat up a lot of time at a time of year when I have a bunch of other projects in the pipeline, the last two years at least I didn’t post post-bowl rankings on Da Blog, there’s an increasing feeling we’ll get a plus-one in 2014 (thus sapping much of the reason for having the rankings), last year I didn’t even bother to post full ranking posts, and both this year and last I didn’t start posting rankings when I intended to. Although in this year’s case that’s because I wanted to get to the two posts I pushed through the past couple days first.

I would have released the first rankings Week 3, although there would have been a few teams only connected through USC at that point. You can still read the Week 3 rankings for your convenience. I finally fixed one of the two longstanding problems I’ve had with the rankings this year, concerning the wonky effect conference ranking has on the final rankings. C Ratings are now calculated by subtracting one-tenth the difference between the B Rating and the average of the team’s opponents’ B Ratings. As conferences are thus now unimportant, conference ratings aren’t listed on the RTF, but conferences themselves are still included for completeness and reference. The first round of conference realignment seems an opportune time to push through this change.

(The other change I’d like to make – making I-AA teams equivalent to an A Rating of 0 for B Point purposes win or lose – probably isn’t something the version of Access I have can handle.)

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC #1 ’06 Boise St.
4-0 LW: #5 A Rat: .812 B Rating: 19.778 C Rating: 17.760
All three I-A teams they’ve faced so far are/were Top 25 in the polls, and the closest any of them came was 13 points. Is it any wonder the polls and C Ratings agree who’s No. 1? Imagine how scary they’ll be when Jordan Jefferson comes back.
2 Alabama SEC #2 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .884 B Rating: 20.664 C Rating: 17.643
Only Penn State has gotten within 20 points. If they can get past Florida, November 5th will be a heck of a game.
3 Michigan B10 #1 Big 10 Lead
4-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .809 B Rating: 15.349 C Rating: 13.569
What Wisconsin-Nebraska game? Only Notre Dame got within three touchdowns. Have the Wolverines finally shaken their recent doldrums? Might they even beat the Buckeyes?
4 South Florida BST #1 Big East Lead
4-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .779 B Rating: 13.611 C Rating: 12.058
Obviously they’ll fall after losing to Pitt, but before then only Notre Dame had gotten within four touchdowns. Looks like the apple doesn’t fall far from the coaching tree.
5 Nebraska B10 #2 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #18 A Rat: .752 B Rating: 12.842 C Rating: 11.296
Looks like the polls were right about the Huskers coming into their new conference with guns ablazin’. No one has gotten within 13 points. Look out, Badgers.
6 Stanford P12 #2 Pac-12 Lead
3-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .893 B Rating: 13.570 C Rating: 11.083
Oregon’s national championship overshadowed Stanford’s great year, but the Cardinal seem to have picked up right where they left off.
7 Georgia Tech ACC #1 ACC Leader
4-0 LW: #4 A Rat: .759 B Rating: 11.881 C Rating: 10.166
With only North Carolina getting within four touchdowns, might the Yellowjackets attract national attention to the ACC?
8 Oklahoma State B12 #1 Big 12 Lead
4-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .692 B Rating: 11.619 C Rating: 9.812
Oklahoma State is auditioning for the Pac-16. Only A&M got within three touchdowns. Don’t look ahead to the Texas game against the Jayhawks.
9 Florida SEC #3 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #52 A Rat: .877 B Rating: 10.754 C Rating: 7.895
Great job blowing Kentucky out of the water. But watch out: now Bama comes into the Swamp.
10 Wisconsin B10 #3 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #9 A Rat: .919 B Rating: 9.878 C Rating: 7.768
Never scored or won by less than 35 or allowed more than 17 = fantastic score ratio. But expect that to change when Nebraska comes into Camp Randall.
11 South Carolina SEC #4 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #33 A Rat: .673 B Rating: 7.979 C Rating: 6.885
Big win over a decent Vanderbilt team. Now, can the Gamecocks prove they deserve their Top 10 poll ranking against the defending national champions?
12 Texas A&M B12 #2 In Top 25
2-1 LW: #2 A Rat: .497 B Rating: 7.913 C Rating: 6.068
The Aggies are trying to leave the Big 12 with a bang. Big wins in their first two games and a one-point loss to Oklahoma State make them the top-ranked one-loss team. Big test coming against rival Arkansas.
13 Boise State MWC #1 Non-BCS Lead
3-0 LW: #10 A Rat: .752 B Rating: 7.102 C Rating: 5.696
Boise State is off to a rollicking start their first year in the Mountain West – and once and future conference mate Nevada is starting off rockily.
14 Oklahoma B12 #3 In Top 25
3-0 LW: #6 A Rat: .733 B Rating: 6.621 C Rating: 5.470
Ten-point wins over Florida State and Missouri, neither in positive B Points, suggest maybe the Sooners aren’t quite the national championship favorites everyone thought they’d be. But they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
15 Virginia Tech ACC #2 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .826 B Rating: 6.824 C Rating: 4.877
The battle of the Techs could be huge this year – but the clash with Clemson for the Princeton-Yale belt may be the biggest early season clash in the ACC.
16 Texas B12 #4 In Top 25
3-0 LW: #14 A Rat: .730 B Rating: 6.618 C Rating: 4.846
The Longhorn Network has painted a target on the Longhorns’ backs for the whole Big 12 to aim at, but the Horns seem to have bounced back from last year’s doldrums.
17 Tennessee SEC #5 In Top 25
2-1 LW: #16 A Rat: .422 B Rating: 4.555 C Rating: 4.569
No shame in losing to Florida after two wins by at least three touchdowns to start the year.
18 Clemson ACC #3 Prncton/Yale
4-0 LW: #27 A Rat: .662 B Rating: 4.947 C Rating: 3.962
Wins over Florida State and I-AA Wofford just a little too close for comfort. But how huge is the showdown with V-Tech for determining the direction of the ACC?
19 Arizona State* P12 #2 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #44 A Rat: .470 B Rating: 3.367 C Rating: 3.064
Big win over a USC team ranked in the AP poll, but admittedly not bowl-eligible, proved their bona fides. Even better? Divisional arrangement means they skate Stanford until conference title game – and their division title may not come with a USC asterisk like some thought.
20 Notre Dame   In Top 25
2-2 LW: #24 A Rat: .283 B Rating: 2.723 C Rating: 3.003
Once upon a time, the Domers would be the top-ranked two-loss team because of the effect of not having a conference to dilute their rating. Now it’s because their two losses were close to teams ahead of them, while their wins aren’t to slouches either. What Brian Kelly hot seat?
21 Penn State B10 #4 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .501 B Rating: 2.874 C Rating: 2.929
Blowing out Eastern Michigan just what the doctor ordered entering Big Ten play.
22 TCU MWC #2 In Top 25
3-1 LW: #22 A Rat: .537 B Rating: 4.653 C Rating: 2.748
Whaddaya know, it’s the two teams that stayed in non-BCS conferences that top the Utah schools in the rankings. TCU has bounced back from the Baylor loss with consistent blowout performances.
23 Illinois B10 #5 In Top 25
4-0 LW: #26 A Rat: .724 B Rating: 2.913 C Rating: 2.581
Arizona State and Western Michigan wins too close for comfort, and Arkansas State only other I-A foe faced, but wins are wins. A good win over rival Northwestern should prove their bona fides.
24 Oregon P12 #3 ’09 Boise St.
3-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .534 B Rating: 3.484 C Rating: 2.542
Blowout win over Arizona, but Arizona stinks. California will provide a much bigger test, but Arizona State looms after that.
25 Rutgers BST #2 In Top 25
2-1 LW: #36 A Rat: .470 B Rating: 2.614 C Rating: 2.362
When’s the last time we talked about Rutgers? 48-0 drubbing of NC Central and double-digit win over Ohio overcomes NC Central being I-A and a narrow loss to North Carolina.

35 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

2010 TCU title: #30 Baylor (3-0), .747, 1.283, .890

Off Top 25: #27 San Diego State (was #11), #31 North Carolina (was #20), #35 Florida International (was #17), #37 California (was #25), #41 USC (was #12), #49 Ohio (was #13), #59 West Virginia (was #19) (yes, freakin’ Florida International would have been Top 20 last week!)

Unbeaten teams not on Top 25: #28 Houston, #29 Kansas State, #30 Baylor*, #32 Iowa State, #61 Texas Tech (all in positive B points, Texas Tech not in positive C)

Rest of Watch List: #26 Utah (2-1), #27 San Diego State (3-1), #31 North Carolina (3-1)

Other Positive B Ratings (all 3-1 unless otherwise noted): #33 Washington*, #34 Temple*, #35 Florida International, #36 Wake Forest (2-1), #37 California, #38 Iowa, #40 Navy (2-1), #42 Bowling Green, #44 Duke* (2-2) (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #41 USC, #43 Miami (FL), #45 Missouri, #46 Louisville, #49 Ohio, #55 Wyoming, #56 Vanderbilt, #58 Florida State, #59 West Virginia, #60 Pittsburgh, #68 Washington State

Bottom 10: #111 Army, #112 Florida Atlantic, #113 Tulane, #114 Idaho, #115 New Mexico, #116 UAB, #117 Louisiana-Monroe, #118 Central Michigan, #119 Akron, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Alabama @ Florida, 5pm PT, CBS

Leave a Comment