I’ve hand-researched all the tiebreakers and, so far as I can tell, here is what each team needs to have happen to get in, simplified to be as easy to understand as possible, with some possible errors. This does not reflect seeding, though teams at 8-7 are ranked in rough seed order. The Jaguars would be the 5, while the Dolphins can’t be anything but the six seed.
- Jets: Win OR BAL, DEN, HOU, MIA, and JAX loss.
- Ravens: Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out.
- Broncos: Win and PIT and (NYJ or BAL) loss OR Win and (NYJ or BAL) loss and HOU win OR PIT and any three of NYJ, BAL, HOU, or JAX loss.
- Texans: Win and any two of NYJ, BAL, or DEN loss.
- Steelers: Win and HOU and (NYJ or BAL) loss OR Win and NYJ, DEN, and BAL loss.
- Dolphins: Win and NYJ, BAL, HOU, and JAX loss.
- Jaguars: Win and any three of NYJ, BAL, HOU, or PIT loss.